UK Vol.51 (Post-EUref tweets Vol.4)

Here is just a part of (analytical) tweets concerning the Brexit through AM 4 July (BST). Excerpts are on our own.

The Political Economy of Brexit – new @UniofBathIPR blog from @IPR_NickP | @UniofBath
…productivity gains in manufacturing steadily reduce employment in the sector, shifting workers into services… Workers are also exposed to globalisation in very different ways. High union density in Scandinavia means that the open, trading economies of the Nordic countries are combined with collective wage setting and strong social protection. …Germany has a highly paid skilled working class in its export sectors, combined with burgeoning low skilled, deregulated service sector employment.
Post-industrial areas – particularly in Wales and Northern Ireland – benefit significantly from EU structural funds, and their governments will advocate on their behalf. But these funds aside, who will speak in the Brexit negotiations for the interests of those people who have just voted to leave?…
Labour is the historic political arm of these workers but it now faces a double bind. If it advocates staying in the single market on EEA terms, which is critical to exporters like Nissan and Airbus, as much as to the City, it will have to concede free movement. Its metropolitan strongholds are proud of their diversity, and the welcome they give to migrants, but its post-industrial heartlands are not…
Let us then say that Britain cannot obtain good terms for Brexit. In the current febrile state of EU politics, there will be a phalanx of states that are unwilling to let the UK have the best of both worlds. There are national government veto points too, particularly if the deal is “mixed”…
Article 50 is silent on whether a country…can reverse its position and withdraw its notification. …another reading is that the text becomes one those creative non-spaces that Europe has used repeatedly in its passage to union. Constitutional experts suggest that it may be possible to “withdraw a withdrawal” – though the ECJ might be asked to provide a ruling. …
Instead of arguing that parliamentarians should ignore the referendum result, refuse to trigger Article 50, or simply propose the UK should remain in the EU, pro-European parties should commit to a second referendum, and put pressure on the Conservative Party to do the same…

A Treaty Revision too far – @PoLIS_Bath Alim Baluch responds to Brexit | @UniofBath
Prof Charlie Lees:…now one of the unforeseen consequences will be that Scotland is likely to have another referendum on Independence, which the SNP is highly likely to win, and in Northern Ireland there will be renewed questions over Irish unification…
Dr Nick Startin: If the EU is to survive, the reform agenda…must be embraced as a matter of urgency. Transparency, accountability and democracy are the key…
Prof Chris Martin:…the greatest worry is the very sharp drop in the share price of major banks. The financial crisis of 2008-9 showed the almost existential dangers of a financially vulnerable banking system…
Dr Susan Milner:… First, anger and disappointment of those who felt left behind by economic development translated into a classic rejection vote. The voting count showed this starkly as a geographical divide. Second, the Leave campaign was able in the last few weeks to channel the sense of democratic renewal which had galvanised the earlier Scottish referendum campaign and to articulate it in the theme of ‘regaining control’. In this they were undoubtedly assisted by EU leaders’ own failure to frame European integration as a people’s rather than an elite project…
Prof Nick Pearce:…The 20th century was a story of the contraction of England and the end of Empire. But only now is the reverse logic of Seeley’s master narrative being fully realised… What is England now? What is her role in the world? Alas, the referendum debate told us nothing of these things; it was sour, parochial and mendacious…
Prof Bill Durodié:…Despite the economic and migration concerns of the elites thrown up in the referendum debate it is those from whom power and authority truly derive who have now spoken the clearest. The European Union now stands discredited with an uncertain future as other electorates will surely take their lead from the United Kingdom and demand their own referenda to leave too.
Prof Graham Room:…Many expect the EU to negotiate a hard bargain, if only to discourage others who might think of heading for the exit, and in order to counter the right-wing nationalist elements which many of them face within their own countries… Nothing in the EU Treaty would prevent the UK government from doing this: and then allowing the result of that second referendum to abort the withdrawal process…
Dr Ali Baluch:… But it is exactly this Treaty Revision which went too far for many Eurosceptics… It generally opposes the Treaty Revision of Lisbon which effectively strengthened the European Parliament, thus reducing the democratic deficit. But it is exactly this Treaty Revision which went too far for many Eurosceptics…

Our #EUreferendum report published earlier this month made exactly the same warning [w PDF] | @UniofBathIPR
Figure one: Demand-side variables as influences and impacts on referendum outcome
· Immigration – freedom of movement, Schengen, refugee crisis
· Security – terrorism, borders, Fortress Europe
· Economic Crisis – the ‘Rational Choice’ debate – how much does
the EU cost? Is the UK better off in or out?
· Climate Change – should the EU take a lead? Are fossil fuels
‘man-made’?
· EU ‘democratic deficit’ – sovereignty, transparency, reform? –
EU positives?
Figure two: Supply-side variables as influences and impacts on referendum outcome
· Political parties and civil society groups
· Domestic political leaders/elites
· Civil society and business leaders/elites
· The campaigns: Britain Stronger in Europe, Vote Leave, and Leave.EU
· EU, EU nation-state and international leaders
· Media: broadcasting media (BBC, Sky), the tabloid press and social media

Game theory offers a better way forward in Britain’s EU drama @BathSofM @ConversationUK | @UniofBath
…The looming referendum was designed to increase the UK’s bargaining power, but it fell flat and the other leaders called his bluff, making limited concessions.
An important concept in game theory when it comes to winning negotiations is the idea of making “credible threats”. For Cameron’s threat to be credible (and therefore effective) it required the other EU leaders to believe he had such influence over the referendum outcome that he could determine a vote to remain or leave…
… Step in behavioural economics and behavioural game theory, which incorporates psychology, emotions and social preferences – such as our sense of fairness, trust and empathy – into the standard economics models. It recognises that people may care about others – and particularly working with others for a common goal. …if we add empathy into models of the prisoner’s dilemma – where each player cares sufficiently about the other – it can transform the game into one of mutual cooperation, enabling a win-win situation for both players…

#EURef & the lack of a politics of hope – @aurelmondon @PoLIS_Bath writes for @openDemocracy | @UniofBath
… As reported by a recent IPSOS MORI survey for the Observer, ‘the biggest survey of its kind ever conducted,’ ‘Nine out of 10 of the country’s top economists working across academia, the City, industry, small businesses and the public sector believe the British economy will be harmed by Brexit’.
This confirms other claims by prominent experts and stakeholders that if one believes that neo-liberalism and the capitalist system are the basis of a strong national economy, then leaving the European Union would be a terrible, even stupid, idea.
This therefore begs the question as to why the Prime Minister, who has declared that he ‘yields to no-one’ in his ‘enthusiasm for capitalism’, would promise a referendum on the question in the first place. … The choice is between a neo-liberal UK within a neo-liberal EU and a neo-liberal UK without a neo-liberal EU…
… As the General Election campaign made clear, the referendum promise was dictated by the Conservatives’ lack of faith in their own beliefs and driven by their fear of a radical right upsurge. In a poorly thought-through manoeuvre, Cameron moved rightward in an attempt to occupy a gap partly filled by UKIP.
… Cameron was right on two out of three counts: Labour’s role in the campaign has been minimal and UKIP has been rendered almost voiceless, even before the referendum takes place. However, the price he paid to keep the hyped threat of UKIP in check was probably not worth the reward.
After all, UKIP has failed to have a real electoral impact beyond the EU parliament apart from forcing a short-sighted promise on the referendum, something for which the Tories have only themselves to blame.
… Brexiters will in fact be willing to reclaim position in a party whose leadership they have virulently attacked and threatened for months…
… What we are thus witnessing in this campaign is not a debate about two different worlds, it is a debate about two visions of the same thing, one bad and the other worse. This is not politics. This is not democracy. This is not what we deserve. This referendum will take us no closer to a better Europe. However, it will have unleashed yet another wave of identitarian politics that will come crashing against the already greatly weakened defences built by those who strive for a just and equal society. …

@Lord_Sugar made his case for Bremain this morning, but what would Brexit mean for London? | @UniofBathIPR
…The single market guarantees free movement of goods, services, labour and capital. The rules ensuring these “four freedoms” are enforced by the ECJ. The ECB is taking an increasingly prominent role in ensuring the stability of the financial system in the Eurozone. It has ultimate supervisory responsibility for all banks in the Eurozone and has direct supervision of the largest Eurozone banks…
…There are two broad types of banking, retail (for example, bank lending to firms and households) and wholesale (for example, trading on foreign exchange markets or buying and selling financial securities and derivatives). Within Europe, the City of London dominates the latter.  Average daily turnover in the UK foreign exchange market exceeds US$2.5 trillion per day. London is the largest global centre in Euro foreign exchange markets, with daily trade of over US$ 1 trillion. This is nearly 45% of global trades, a figure that far exceeds any country that belongs to the Eurozone. The City is also dominant in markets for swaps, especially interest rate swaps.  Although these are obscure and complex financial products, they are central to the daily business of large financial institutions. London-based trades in these assets amount to over US$ 1.3 trillion per day…
…account for 10% of GDP and 12% of UK tax receipts. Directly or indirectly, they employ over 330,000 people, many in high-skill, high wage jobs. Banking and Financial Services is one of the few areas where the UK has a large and consistent trade surplus, of nearly £47bn…
…Optimists argue that Brexit would allow the City to flourish in a low regulatory environment as the UK frees itself from the burdensome regulations of Brussels.  But this is highly subjective…
… Although the long-term impact of Brexit is deeply uncertain, it is clear that the UK would have to do very well in the negotiations that would follow a vote for Brexit in June. Just to keep things as they are, three things would have to happen. First, the UK would need continued access to the single market, with recourse to the ECJ for adjudication and enforcement of the rules of the single market…similar to those negotiated with Switzerland or Norway… Second, the UK would need continued access to the TARGET system for clearing payments in the Eurozone. Although not a member of the Eurozone, the UK used the rules of the single market to gain access to TARGET. Access to this allows UK-based financial institutions to more easily participate in inter-bank and other short-term money markets in the Eurozone. …non-Eurozone EU members should have the same ability to transact in the common currency as Eurozone members.  …continued access to TARGET would be problematic in the event of Brexit.  Thirdly, the UK would have to negotiate arrangements similar to the current passport system of financial regulation. Currently, the UK benefits greatly from the “passport” system whereby financial institutions based in the UK can provide financial services in all EU countries without further financial regulatory requirements. In effect financial institutions can use their compliance with UK financial regulations as a “passport” to operate anywhere in the EU. The financial services passport is a major reason why many foreign banks, especially American and Swiss ones, have large UK-based subsidiary operations. The presence of these large banks then encourages Eurozone-based banks like BNP-Paribas and Deutsche Bank to also base a large part of their operations in the UK…

In an #euref debate growing more heated and strident by the day, Dr Papadopoulos presents a higher cause to remain | @UniofBathIPR
Sir Humphrey: Minister, Britain has had the same foreign policy objective for at least the last five hundred years: to create a disunited Europe. In that cause we have fought with the Dutch against the Spanish, with the Germans against the French, with the French and Italians against the Germans, and with the French against the Germans and Italians. Divide and rule, you see. Why should we change now, when it’s worked so well?
Hacker: That’s all ancient history, surely?
Sir Humphrey: Yes, and current policy. We ‘had’ to break the whole thing [the EEC] up, so we had to get inside. We tried to break it up from the outside, but that wouldn’t work. Now that we’re inside we can make a complete pig’s breakfast of the whole thing…
Sir Humphrey: Well, for the same reason. It’s just like the United Nations, in fact; the more members it has, the more arguments it can stir up, the more futile and impotent it becomes.
Hacker: What appalling cynicism.
Sir Humphrey: Yes… We call it diplomacy, Minister.

How democratic is the EU? Our Euro integration expert @bathsofm gives his verdict. May not be what you think | @UniofBath
… Smaller states are over-represented in the European Parliament and voter turnout at elections is usually significantly lower than turnout for national government elections – although this is hardly the European Parliament’s fault. …

New @PoLIS_Bath blog on #EUReferendum from Dr @NicholasStartin – Brexit or Bremain? | @UniofBath
The EPP, which in effect, comprises Centre Right MEPs from across the member states including the German CDU and the French neo-Gaullist Republicans, remains the largest party in the EP. Historically it has had, and still retains, a pro-EU outlook. The Conservative party famously withdrew from the group following the European elections in 2009 and set up the smaller, more EU-critical grouping called the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR)…

Latest piece: Is the EU anywhere near getting its own army? with @sjasmith brexit @UniofBathIPR @UniofBath | @DJGalbreath
…But in a speech on May 9 outlining why the UK would be more secure if it remained in the EU, the prime minister, David Cameron, said suggestions of an EU army were “fanciful” and that the UK would veto any suggestion of it.
As Cameron pointed out, there is a significant gap between the rhetoric and reality of the establishment of a fully functional European army.
The creation of a European army is a long way off and by no means inevitable. Even the most supportive nations, such as Germany, would acknowledge this reality.

Debate on post-Brexit national security has been heated this week; for cooler analysis, read @DJGalbreath’s blog | @UniofBathIPR
…Policing, intelligence and military officials have seen the EU become an important part of their portfolio since the 1980s. As the foreign policy scholar Professor Christopher Hill has argued, European policy has become ubiquitous for UK departments and agencies as they seek to engage with the problems that face the UK and Europe. To see this as simply the EU intervening in UK policy areas across the board is misleading because this is to ignore the effort that successive UK governments have taken to enable the EU to do regional security better, especially in areas that do not concern territorial defence…
…outside we are less coordinated against a transnational problem, while inside we are subject to the challenges of free mobility that the EU’s Schengen zone presents to a borderless Europe. The UK already maintains its own borders and remains outside the Schengen zone; however, the UK has been a victim of ‘home grown’ terrorists, such as the 7/7 bombers…
…the focus on national sovereignty versus EU member status is misleading because in an ever-increasing globalised and trans-national world, the benefits of both are lower. Perhaps even more importantly for the UK, the main sources of political violence are those who are born and raised in Britain. While there is a trans-national quality to their indoctrination, their threat to public safety is not impacted by debates about borders. They are very local problems that will not cease with the settlement of the Brexit referendum…

Should voters take Carney’s Brexit warning seriously? Dr B. Morley examines Britain’s economic future in this blog | @UniofBathIPR
…When the UK was considering joining the Euro in 2003, the UK government published five criteria to determine if joining would be in the UK’s national interest. In many respects the broader issues addressed by these points are still relevant when considering the UK’s relationship with the Eurozone…
…in 2014, 44.6% of UK exports were to the EU and 53.2% of UK imports were from the EU, however the UK’s trade deficit with the EU, reached £59 billion (exports minus imports) in 2014, although in the same year it recorded a surplus of £15.4 billion in the service sector…
… Under the single rule book, the European Banking Authority (EBA) will ensure that Basle III is implemented in a consistent manner across the EU. However Basle III is a voluntary code and there are already suggestions that its implementation will impede world economic growth by between -0.05 and -0.15% per annum (OECD, 2011), so there are reservations among some member states about implementing it…
…This has directly affected the UK financial system previously, when a previous write down of Greek sovereign debt in 2012 involved private investors in Greek government debts having to accept a 50% write down in the value of the debt, known as a haircut.
However over recent months this problem has been reduced, following the decision of the European Central Bank (ECB) to carry out Quantitative Easing (QE). This mainly involves the ECB buying government bonds from all the Eurozone member states in proportion to the size of their respective economies…
…None of the bailouts or financial strategies used so far are really confronting the fundamental problems in the Greek economy or the Eurozone as a whole. In particular the structural differences in the economies across the Eurozone, which mean that a common monetary policy is not always appropriate. The fundamental problem is arguably a lack of convergence across the Euozone economies and the moves to encourage greater convergence could affect the non-Eurozone members too…
the Euro depreciates when the risk of a Eurozone break up increases, in addition it also created increased volatility in the currency. However a devalued Euro is not necessarily all bad news for the Eurozone, as it can encourage their exports and economic growth. Although, countries that rely on exporting to the Eurozone, such as the UK will potentially suffer…
This recent crisis has again highlighted the need for a longer term solution to the problems in the Eurozone… This could possibly involve greater fiscal integration within the monetary union and many economists… a fiscal union should be formed in order to prevent future crises…

Is it about to get lonelier at the top? New blog by @mcbaluch on the German view of Brexit and uncertain #EUfuture | @UniofBathIPR
Following the financial crisis of 2007/08, which affected Germany far less than other countries of the EU, Germany’s economic dominance is more pronounced than ever before, leaving German governments more exposed to meet leadership expectations from the United States and its European partners…
All the major European integration projects have been designed or strongly endorsed by Germany whether it is the Single European Act, the Schengen Zone, the Economic and Monetary Union or enlargement. The European Central Bank (ECB) has been designed using the German Federal Bank as its role model. …
The alienation between the two conservative parties started long before Cameron became Prime Minister…
A significant proportion of the isolation felt by the Tories in Europe has to be seen in correlation with a change of course in the European Parliament, i.e. Cameron’s decision that his party was to leave the European People’s Party (EPP), which came despite several warnings by other European conservatives that such a step would not be without consequences. …
While British Europhiles can be quick to criticise Cameron’s clumsy diplomacy, the German response was not helpful either. On the domestic front, party leader Cameron was not only trying to keep UKIP small but was also under pressure from influential Eurosceptic groups in his own party. Publicly threatening him to reconsider his course of action made it almost impossible for him to adjust his position without losing face. …
…Once a tolerated pariah in the EPP, the Tories have since reinvented themselves as the most prominent and influential member of the smaller ECR…
German-British relations were further strained when the German right-wing populists of the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) joined the ECR in summer 2014. …
…There was considerable unease with the AfD members over a meeting with the far-right Freedom Party of Austria FPÖ and remarks that using firearms was a legitimate way of protecting borders against refugees…
For German governments of the future, Brexit would mean the loss of the second largest economy within the EU. The historically problematic picture of German domination in Europe would be even more difficult to conceal… “It would leave Europe exposed to a dominance of Germany that Germany doesn’t want and no one else wants.”
From a German perspective, Merkel’s handling of the EU will be extolled against the long shadow of history. Her impact will be compared to Willy Brandt’s vision for Europe, whose short Chancellorship managed to change gears from East-West confrontation to “change through rapprochement”…
…Cameron will be expected to renegotiate the agreement from February and other Eurosceptic parties can use this example as leverage in election campaigns. What many European voters may perceive as the carrot can, in a Hegelian twist, very well be Merkel’s stick.
…Brexit or even just the example set by the British referendum can boost the Nexit camp…

What Thatcher did for pro-Europeanism and other issues. New blog on the social bases of the EU referendum camps | @IPR_NickP
In the 1960s and 1970s, it was the Conservative Party that led Britain into membership of the European Economic Community. Seeking a new anchor for Britain’s geo-political interests after decolonisation and the fiasco of Suez, and despairing of the capacity of Britain’s post-war Keynesian economic settlement to solve its class conflicts, Conservative leaders orientated towards Europe’s successful social market models…
Both positions were upended by Thatcherism, which imposed a new political economic settlement on the UK that dispensed with the coordination of class interests, while shifting to a more aggressive Atlanticism in foreign policy. Europe was no longer a source of inspiration for economic policy, but instead an enlarged free market for British trade…
The prominence of finance services in Britain’s post-Thatcher economic model – and the taxes they contribute to the financing of public services – ensures that their interests have considerable political support…
Similarly, access to the single market explains the solid support for the EU amongst large companies, in both manufacturing and service sectors…

“There is no fixed EU to remain in” says Prof Bill Durodié @PoLIS_Bath in his latest #EURef blogpost. | @UniofBath
…In Italy, in part due to the once seemingly endless saga surrounding Sylvio Berlusconi and his eventual replacement by an unelected EU bureaucrat in 2011, there are several parties fighting for the accolade of being anti-elite, which include the Lega Nord that adopts a regionalist perspective and comedian Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement, which campaigns against corruption in politics…

Listen again to @CharlesLees2 @PoLIS_Bath on @ABCaustralia talking Corbyn Labour & Brexit | @UniofBath

Brexit special podcast @ConversationUK with Prof Bill Durodie of @PoLIS_Bath on what #EURef means for the UK

Juppe: pragmatic over Brexit terms but would scrap Le Touquet & return border controls from Northern France to UK | @IPR_NickP

Brexit is is on – experts including @PoLIS_Bath ‘s Bill Durodie respond for @ConversationUK | @UniofBath
Here, leading experts offering explanations and opinions on what is an unprecedented geopolitical and economic situation.

Boris bails – or are we falling for another trick by magic Johnson? – @CharlesLees2 @PoLIS_Bath / @ConversationUK | @UniofBath

Superb – David Runciman on Brexit for @Juncture_IPPR | @IPR_NickP

@IPR_NickP blog on the worldview of Dominic Cummings and Michael Gove | @UniofBathIPR

@POLIS_Bath’s Professor @CharlesLees2 for @ConversationUK on the impact of Brexit for the Conservatives | @UniofBath

ICYMI: Experts from @UniofBath have their say on Brexit vote | @BathChron

Catch @NicholasStartin @PoLIS_Bath Down Under on @ABCaustralia talking Brexit shortly | @UniofBath

England has voted to leave the European Union and in so doing has imperilled her own union | @UniofBathIPR

Russia’s leaders are happy about Brexit, it won’t help the regime at homewrites @JPaulGoode in @washingtonpost | @UniofBath

New Dr Felia Allum & Annarita Criscitiello blogpost for @UniofBathIPR – What does Italy think about Brexit? | @IPR_NickP

Blog on the political economy of Brexit and some musings on Article 50 and a 2nd referendum | @IPR_NickP

How Marketers Brought Britain to Brexit – by @DrGiesler and @avishankar @SchulichSchool @BathSofM | @DrGiesler

Clear thinking and sound analysis as always from @IPR_NickP HT @GavinJKelly1 The Political Economy of Brexit | @juliaunwin

Brexit could start EU domino effect, warns new @UniofBathIPR Policy Brief | @UniofBath

As Britain goes to the polls @NicholasStartin @PoLIS_Bath gives his analysis on the #EURef campaign to @ABCaustralia | @UniofBath

Couldn’t join us for the #EURefBath debate yesterday? Read about the key moments | @UniofBathIPR

The #EUreferendum 1 month countdown starts….now –  @PoLIS_Bath @UniofBathIPR

To understand the Brexit debate it may help to know what other EU states think. The IPR blog gives the big picture | @UniofBathIPR

Labour is caught in a bind between its metropolitan and working-class heartlands says @IPR_NickP in @guardian | @UniofBath

Jeremy Corbyn could transform the Brexit debate – but does he want to? @CharlesLees2 writes for @ConversationUK | @UniofBath

Read the response by @SKinnock to essay by @IPR_NickP and me | @GavinJKelly1

Great comparative analysis of EU & UK democracy and the sovereignty question by @Barristerblog. #EURef | @StAndrewsUniCGC
… The British economic success story has been closely linked to trade with the single market. 44.7% of British exports now go to the EU (and another 8% if we include single market members Norway and Switzerland): in purely economic terms it would be deeply reckless to risk damaging that market without a very clear strategy of how Brexit would be managed…
…Most divorces have two characteristics: first, they are always worse than anyone thought imaginable; secondly it is the children who suffer the most. This one will be no exception. If we walk out of the EU it is our children who will pay, with economic stagnation and unemployment, all the more bitter for having been foreseeable and avoidable.
The central political arguments are these: The EU is undemocratic; The EU has removed sovereignty from the UK Parliament.
…If you are going to have a single market there is a need for common regulations about trade; and if there are to be common regulations there has to be some sort of supranational authority to make them. Without some such authority it is hard to see how the EU, and certainly not the single market, could function in anything like its current form. On many important issues: education, social services, health, most criminal law and most taxation…
…In 2015 the EU’s total budget was about £128 billion: by comparison in 2014 – 15 total UK spending was nearly 6 times that at £735 billion. Despite being the fourth biggest net contributor to the EU, the UK pays just 0.6% of its Gross National Income to Brussels. Largely thanks to Mrs Thatcher, this is by some way the smallest proportion of GNI paid by any EU member…
…Participation in European elections is generally low throughout Europe: in the UK it hovers around 35%, roughly the same level as vote in most local council elections…
…Part of the difficulty is that… They perceive that increasing democracy in the EU would in all probability lead to increasing its power…
How important is the EU’s lack of democracy? Most written democratic constitutions – that of the United States is an obvious example – deliberately include undemocratic elements… two examples from the US constitution: the President is chosen not by popular vote, but by an electoral college made up of representatives from the states of the Union… US Supreme Court judges, who have enormous power, including the power to overturn statutes, are unelected, unaccountable and for practical purposes unsackable…
The democratic camouflage is that a draft of any of these regulations (known as “statutory instruments”) must be laid before each house of Parliament before they become law.
The reality is that in practice statutory instruments are barely scrutinised by Parliament at all…
…For practical purposes they are far less scrutinised than EU legislation.
…since 1979 the House of Commons has not rejected a single one…

Britain’s Democratic Failure by Kenneth Rogoff via @ProSyn | @StAndrewsUniCGC

Very interesting – Five legal points about the Leave victory | @StAndrewsUniCGC

A way to keep Scotland in EU & UK? Detoxifying UK’s exit from EU: a multi-national compromise is possible via @brexitvote | @StAndrewsUniCGC

Cogent piece by Prof Colin Kidd: the golden opportunity that could become Sturgeon’s nightmare via @guardian | @StAndrewsIR

The NHS and Europe: Five must reads | @CPPHdurham

In today’s @IrishTimes, Dr @aoifemod writes, ‘Brexit: Villiers can’t claim border controls won’t be reintroduced’ | @DurhamLawSchool

Professor Nigel Driffield says the UK’s Inward investment will suffer long-term damage following Brexit | @WarwickBSchool
“Those championing Brexit often comment on how trade would be unaffected, so long as we were to stay within some looser trading arrangement with the EU, but most seem to assume that inward investment would remain unchanged.
Our research has found that is not the case, it would greatly reduce the level of FDI to the UK and for those people who think there might be just a short-term ‘blip’ we have found it will take four years to recover and even then the long-term trajectory will be lower…”
…turnover by foreign-owned businesses in the UK is more than £12.5 billion, with the North of England, Wales and Scotland being much more reliant on foreign-owned manufacturing…
“Out of all of these possible events only two positively affected the long-term trend: entry into the EEC in 1973, and entering the single market in 1992.
Meanwhile, only two events caused a reduction in the long-term level of inward investment flows: the UK leaving the European Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1992 and Harold Wilson devaluing sterling in 1967…”
…Inward investment is of vital importance to the UK economy, not merely because of the employment opportunities foreign firms create, which often occur in areas of high unemployment, but also because it creates technology transfer and secondary employment through the supply chain…

@LouiseHBeaumont @ftlive have we reached peak uncertainty? This man might know | @WarwickBSchool

Farming was all but ignored in the #EUref media debate despite major economic implications | @lboroCRCC

Here’s what our @lboroCRCC team discovered this week about #EUref media coverage | @lborouniversity

Article 50 press mentions increase from 1.8 to 49.5 times per day following Brexit | @lborouniPR

80% press coverage pro-Brexit, Loughborough analysis finds | @lborouniversity

Brexit had an 82% advantage over Remain in terms of newspaper coverage | @lboroCRCC

Which papers support brexit? Loughborough research behind @HuffingtonPost article | @lborouniversity

Women accounted for just 16.5% of all politicians on TV & 14.9% in the press | @lboroCRCC

Did Corbyn fail to get his message heard? @bbcworldservice features our research | @lborouniversity

Statement from our Vice-Chancellor Professor Robert Allison on #EURefResults | @lborouniversity

“Imperial is, and will remain, a European university” | @imperialcollege

What happens now? The UK post-Brexit. Prof Alison Harcourt’s article in Politics Home. | @UofESSIS

UK votes to leave the European Union – what does this mean for us? | @UniofExeter

What could brexit mean for language learning? Read @guardian’s article on this topic | @UofEHumanities

Blockchain: what happens now? Phil Godsiff reports @sbsatsurrey @unisurreynews @philgodsiff | @SurreyCoDE

Economist @geraintjohnes discusses the options which the UK faces after the EU Referendum on TRT World | @LancasterManage

Brexit and Forecasting: In this blog, Robert Fildes offers his thoughts on the forecasts made during the campaign | @LancasterManage

How divided is the UK post-Brexit vote? Lancaster’s Dr Mark Garnett debates on @AJEnglish | @LancasterUni

V.good: social class + low turnout of under 25s explains (most) of Brexit vote, R.Johnson et al.  @LSEpoliticsblog | @simonjhix

David Runciman on how the “Remainers” can, and will, bypass the result of the referendum | @prospect_uk

“This isn’t over. Gove did need Boris. And Boris hasn’t spoken yet.’ Behind the scenes of the drama | @BBCMarkMardell