US Policy Changes Vol.14 (Deregulation Vol.2)

Here are excerpts on deregulation from Scoring the Trump Economic Plan: Trade, Regulatory, and Energy Policy Impacts (PDF; 9/29/2016) | Peter Navarro and Wilbur Ross.

IV. Regulatory Effects on Growth
@BizRoundtable…: Nearly three-quarters of @BizRoundtable CEOs list regulations as one of the top three cost pressures facing their businesses. … Fifty-six percent believe pending regulations will negatively affect their hiring and capital spending over the next two years. And 68 percent indicate that if existing regulatory costs were reduced by 20 percent, the money saved would be invested in increased research and development. … “82 percent of @BizRoundtable members said they find the U.S. regulatory system more burdensome than those of other developed countries.”
In 2015, @FedRegister lists over 3,400 final rules issued. …@Heritage: The number and cost of federal regulations increased substantially in 2015, as regulators continued to tighten restrictions on American businesses and individuals. The addition of 43 new major rules last year increased annual regulatory costs by more than $22 billion, bringing the total annual costs of Obama Administration rules to an astonishing $100 billon-plus in just seven years.
@Heritage and @ShopFloorNAM have estimated regulatory costs to be in the range of $2 trillion annually – about 10% of our GDP. @ShopFloorNAM finds that “small manufacturers face more than three times the burden of the average US business.” According to @ceidotorg, this “hidden tax” of regulation amounts to “nearly $15,000 per US household” annually. …

The Trump Regulatory Reform Plan
We assume the Trump plan seeks to reduce the current regulatory burden by a minimum of 10% or $200 billion annually.
According to @ShopFloorNAM, “for every one worker in manufacturing, there are another four employees hired elsewhere.” In addition, “for every $1.00 spent in manufacturing, another $1.81 is added to the economy” and this is “the highest multiplier effect of any economic sector.”
… According to @TheMfgInstitute:
More than any other sector, manufacturers bear the highest share of the cost of regulatory compliance. … Manufacturers spend an estimated $192 billion annually to abide by economic, environmental and workplace safety regulations and ensure tax compliance—equivalent to an 11 percent “regulatory compliance tax.”

Scoring The Effects of Regulatory Reform
… Donald Trump’s strategy will trim a minimum of $200 billion from America’s annual regulatory burden. This is roughly one-tenth of the $2 trillion consensus estimate of that burden.
This reduction in regulatory drag would add $200 billion of pre-tax profit to businesses annually. Taxing that additional profit at Trump’s 15% rate would yield $30 billion more in annual taxes. This would leave businesses with an additional $170 billion of post-tax earnings.
Businesses typically pay out one third of increased post-tax earnings so on this $170 billion of increased post-tax earnings, $56.67 billion more would be paid in dividends and taxed at an 18% percent effective rate. This would leave $113.33 billion of investible extra cash flow, and add $10.2 billion of personal income tax revenues to the Federal treasury each year. …


US Policy Changes Vol.13 (Employment/Economy Vol.2)

Here are excerpts on employment from Scoring the Trump Economic Plan: Trade, Regulatory, and Energy Policy Impacts (PDF; 9/29/2016) | Peter Navarro and Wilbur Ross.

II. There Is Nothing Normal About The “New Normal”
… Many left-of-center economists – and the Obama Administration – have described this era of slower growth as the “new normal.” They blame this plunge at least in part on demographic shifts…
As @davidrdollar of @BrookingsChina notes, US direct investment flows to China were “fairly stable at about $1.6 billion per year in the period 1999-2003” but “jumped in the period 2004-2008 to an annual average of $6.4 billion.”
Justin Pierce of @federalreserve staff and @YaleSOM’s Peter Schott attribute most of the decline in US manufacturing jobs from 2001 to 2007 to the China deal. David Autor of @MIT, David Dorn of @uzh_news_en, and Gordon Hanson of @UCSanDiego have described a “China trade shock” that has raised the unemployment rate, depressed wages and the labor participation rate, and reduced the lifetime income of workers in American manufacturing most “exposed” to the shock.
… All we have gotten from tilting at Keynesian windmills is a doubling our of national debt from $10 trillion to $20 trillion under Obama-Clinton and the weakest economic recovery since World War II – combined with depleted infrastructure and a shrunken military. …

III. How Nations Grow and Prosper
… The structural problems driving the slow growth in the US economy over the last 15 years have primarily been the investment and net exports drivers in the GDP growth equation.
The national income accounts divide investment into three categories: residential fixed investment, the change in private inventories, and the category we are most concerned with in this report, nonresidential fixed investment. …
To the extent unfavorable tax, trade, energy, and/or regulatory policies “push” capital investment offshore or discourage onshore investment, nonresidential fixed investment is reduced in the GDP equation, and this “offshoring drag” subtracts directly from GDP growth. …
… @EconomicPolicy estimates that there are more than 2.2 million workers “missing” from the accounting by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the calculation of the unemployment rate. If these workers were actually counted, the US unemployment rate would be at 6.2%, significantly higher than the official rate of 4.9%. Increasing real GDP growth from 1.9% to 3.5% would put almost all of these missing workers back to work a year.


US Policy Changes Vol.12 (Trade Vol.1)

Here are articles on trade. Excerpts are on our own.

WTO
Trump is right to ditch TPP. Here’s why WTO should go next. (11/22/2016) | @AlanTonelson @CNBCopinion
…the Buy America regulations governing federal civilian and military purchasing already require imports to contain certain levels of American-made parts and components. …
An enormous and pervasive trade distortion could be corrected through a border adjustment tax on imports from countries that use Value Added Taxes – i.e., nearly all countries. These levies in effect penalize U.S. goods seeking overseas customers and subsidize foreign goods destined for America. Some estimates judge that this policy discrepancy generates about half of the U.S. trade deficit.
To carry out much of this program legally, the U.S withdrawal from the World Trade Organization is necessary. …
A new America First trade policy along these lines will foster not only more but better quality U.S. growth – based mainly on investing and producing rather than on the borrowing and spending that inflated the previous decade’s bubbles. …

China will defend WTO rights if Trump moves on tariffs: official (11/23/2016) | @davelawder @Reuters
… Trump has said China is “killing us” on trade and that he would take steps to reduce the large U.S. goods trade deficit with China, including labeling Beijing as a currency manipulator soon after he takes office on Jan. 20, 2017, and levying duties of up to 45 percent on Chinese goods to level the playing field for U.S. manufacturers. …
“China will take a tit-for-tat approach then. A batch of Boeing (BA.N) orders will be replaced by Airbus (AIR.PA). U.S. auto and (Apple (AAPL.O)) iPhone sales in China will suffer a setback, and U.S. soybean and maize (corn) imports will be halted,”…

Trump’s leadership is vital for world trading system: WTO chief (11/9/2016) | @tgemiles @Reuters
…and he would support the administration of Donald Trump in ensuring trade was a positive force for job creation.
… Trump has described the Geneva-based trading club as a “disaster” and suggested he could pull the United States out of the WTO if the rules proved an obstacle to his plans to protect U.S. manufacturing.

China scores WTO victories against some U.S. anti-dumping methods (10/19/2016) | @tgemiles,@davelawder @Reuters
… Specifically, the panel found fault with the U.S. practices of determining dumping margins in certain cases of “targeted dumping,” in which foreign firms cut prices on goods aimed at specific U.S. regions, customer groups or time periods.
Dumping is normally found when a foreign producer’s U.S. prices are lower than its home market prices for the same or similar goods, or when the imports are sold at prices below production costs. …

U.S. Files WTO Case Against Chinese Agriculture Subsidies (9/13/2016) | @jwilson29 @business
… China is offering excessive support for the production of corn, rice and wheat, in the process denying American farmers the ability to compete fairly for exports.
The value of China’s price support for the commodities last year was an estimated $100 billion more than what it had committed to when the nation joined the WTO…
“The most likely impact in the next six months might be to motivate China to impose anti-dumping tariffs on U.S. products, including agricultural products,” William Tierney, chief economist for @AgResource… “It will have little or no impact on Chinese ag policies.”

Donald Trump Says It Might Be Time for the U.S. To Quit the WTO (w Video; 7/25/2016) | @ianmount @Fortune
… “Europe got together so they could beat the United States when it comes to making money. In other words, on trade.”
…Trump highlighted the fact that the U.S. economy has lost almost one-third of its manufacturing jobs since 1997. He drew links between this drop and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) that President Bill Clinton signed four years before, as well as Bill and Hillary Clinton’s support of China’s entrance into the WTO four years later. …

WTO helping China Loot Caterpillar (10/4/2010) | Howard Richman & Raymond Richman @AmericanThinker
Why can’t Caterpillar make a profit exporting mini-excavators to China? The answer is simple: China has a 30% tariff on all excavators. …
…Larry Summers… oversaw China’s entry to the WTO (World Trade Organization), and he let China declare all these vehicles as a “strategic sector” entitled to high protective tariffs. …
China… simply manipulates currency exchange rates to make its exports attractive and to keep imports expensive, thus perpetuating and increasing its trade surplus.
… First it forces vehicle-making companies to locate their factories in China if they want to sell to the growing Chinese market. Then it forces them to “share” their proprietary technologies with Chinese competitors. Caterpillar already has 11 factories in China. It also has two Chinese competitors – Liugong and Sany – that are producing what one expert describes as “knockoffs” of Caterpillar models, and they are exporting them to the world.
… At first SAIC just shared production and profits with GM on GM brands produced in China. Now SAIC competes directly with GM by selling its own models in China using GM’s technology. …
China’s self-created trade imbalances have given it a 10% growth rate while its victims’ economies stagnate (exports stimulate growth). China is now using its rapid growth as a lever for demanding that high tech and pharmaceutical companies move their R&D laboratories and patents to China…
WTO rules permit China to place 30% tariffs on vehicles. WTO rules let China manipulate currency exchange rates in order to keep its trade out of balance. WTO rules let China loot western companies of their technologies.
…one special WTO rule… allows a country experiencing trade deficits to impose duties or other limitations on imports in order to bring trade into balance. It’s time…

WTO Entry Boosts China’s Economy (2002/11/18) | @chinaprgcn

Manufacturing
American Manufacturing Groups Push Donald Trump to Rethink His Trade Threats (11/16/2016) | @Reuters @Fortune
… His suggestions that his administration could impose 45% across-the-board tariffs on goods from China have drawn threats of retaliation by Chinese state media against U.S. soybeans and companies such as Boeing (+0.15%) and Apple (-0.51%).
… “I’m of the belief that there is a lot of space between our current policy and an all-out trade war,” @ScottPaulAAM (@KeepitMadeinUSA) said, adding that he would like to see Trump be more proactive on enforcing existing trade rules.
“There are 2 million manufacturing jobs in this country that are dependent on our trade relationship with Canada and Mexico,” said @LDempseyNAM (@ShopFloorNAM). “…we certainly don’t want to put those jobs in jeopardy.”
… “Obviously Congress and the president could always look at everything, but they have to keep in mind both the production and the supply chains are deeply integrated into the three countries and that integration also supports a lot of American jobs,” Mark Fields (@Ford) said. …

Donald Trump Poised to Pressure Mexico on Trade: While an abrupt withdrawal from Nafta trade deal is unlikely, the president-elect and his advisers are gunning for big changes (w Videos; 11/21/2016) | @willmauldin,@davidluhnow @WSJ
… If Mr. Trump wins concessions from Mexico, Canada likely would seek comparable advantages with Mexico. Any talks with Canada, which had a trade agreement with the U.S. that predates Nafta, would likely bring up thorny issues that have long dogged relations, including softwood lumber imports from British Columbia, Canada’s support for its dairy farmers and the labeling of beef in the U.S. produced from cattle born or raised in Canada. …
… Export quotas… would be “the beginning of pure protectionism, and it would be shooting both of our countries in the foot. …
Rep. @BradSherman (D., Calif.) suggested negotiating within the framework of Nafta the option for Washington to impose special tariffs of up to 4% on Mexican goods to reduce the bilateral trade deficit to $25 billion, excluding oil and agricultural goods. “Good neighbors have balanced trade relationships,”…
The “destination-based cash-flow tax” could be challenged at the WTO, but Mr. Trump’s advisers say they will use Washington’s leverage at the Geneva-based trade body to change the treatment of VAT and other border-adjusted taxes. …

The Trump policy that will ‘shrink the economy and make the US poorer’ (11/17/2016) | Benjamin Powell @CNBCopinion
… According to exit polls, 50 percent of voters in Wisconsin and Michigan agreed with the notion that international trade kills American jobs. Similarly, 53 percent of Pennsylvanian voters and 48 percent of Ohio voters bought into this fallacy. Among the voters in the four states who expressed agreement with the trade fallacy, Trump’s support ranged from 59 percent in Michigan to 67 percent in Ohio. …
More than half of all imports are intermediate components or raw materials that go into the production of other goods and services. When international trade makes these materials and parts cheaper and more widely available, the domestic industries that use these items become more competitive, enabling them to sell more products, which results in expansion and increases in jobs.
Similarly, when foreigners receive dollars by exporting to the United States they’re able to buy more, which increases the market for U.S. exports. …
Exit polls showed that only a small minority (fewer than 13 percent) of voters in the Rust Belt battleground states understood that international trade has no net effect on the number of jobs. Candidate Trump benefited from their ignorance. …

In China-U.S. Trade War, Trump Would Have Weapons (11/10/2016) | @KeithBradsher @nytimes
…@DanRDimicco…
… Since President Ronald Reagan, Republican and Democratic administrations have been reluctant to confront countries that may be subsidizing or dumping exports, either because the evidence is unclear or because of a risk of damaging diplomatic or strategic relations.
… The Obama Administration has been preparing to file a World Trade Organization case against China over claims that it subsidized aluminium exports. And the United States, Japan and the European Union already complain that Chinese government subsidies have produced a bloated domestic steel industry that they say dumps millions of tons of excess goods on world markets each year.
… General Motors and Ford Motor… But much of the design and engineering work is still done in the United States. …
American farmers… but it is unclear how badly they could be hurt by any trade action. …
China’s biggest potential weapon is to disrupt the supply chains of multinationals by halting exports of crucial materials or components. …

FTA
Scoring the Trump Trade Plan: Magical Thinking – Who knew Donald Trump was a fan of Latin American fiction? (w PDFs; 9/28/2016) | Marcus Noland @PIIE
… If you want to lower the nation’s trade deficit, increasing the saving rate, not launching a trade war would be the right place to start. But there is not a word of this in “Scoring the Trump Economic Plan: Trade, Regulatory, and Energy Policy Impacts.” It’s all perfidious foreigners and incompetent trade negotiators instead. …

Trump Trade Proposals Could Sink Economy: Marcus Noland discusses a newly released PIIE Briefing analyzing the economic pain to the US economy that would occur if Donald Trump were to implement his trade proposals as president. Also discussed are the lost opportunities from Hillary Clinton’s trade stance. (w Video/Voice/Transcript; 9/19/2016) | Marcus Noland @PIIE
Marcus Noland: …both China and Mexico, especially China, in their dealings with the United States in the past have shown no reluctance to retaliate when the United States does something. So in that scenario, the United States economy goes into a mild recession. Private sector job losses relative to baseline are 4.8 million. Those are concentrated in the capital good sector and some mining sectors…
When we examine the geographical incidents of it, Washington State is the worst affected state losing 5 percent of its jobs relative to baseline. But then there’s a broad swath of states that lose 4 to 5 percent of their jobs. And these include a number of so-called battleground states. We have North Carolina in that group, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, and so on.
… The worst affected counties happen to be two counties in California in Northern California which lose 7 percent of their jobs.
A second scenario we examined is we call asymmetric trade war. And in that scenario, China and Mexico do not put the across the board tariff on the United States, but they respond in other ways. …three illustrative possibilities. First one is China halts purchases of US aircraft. The aircraft sector is a very contentious sector because a lot of purchases are effectively state purchases. …Airbus is a clear alternative to Boeing. …
Another one we examined is a kind of buy no American policy where the government of China tells its state-owned enterprises stop buying American business services. So that really affects software, financial services, and so on.
A third possibility is an embargo on soybeans. US-China bilateral trade in soybeans is a quarter of the world market. And so, China just puts on an embargo.
In that first one in the aircraft scenario, …the Seattle area, Seattle-Tacoma, Everett, Washington, very hard hit, Wichita, Kansas, hard hit, parts of Connecticut and Texas where Pratt & Whitney produces engines, hard hit.
In the case of the business service scenario… Silicon Valley, Seattle again, poor Seattle, New York City, Boston. …
Marcus Noland: …an embargo against soybeans, that’s the one that would probably be the least persistent because soybeans is a commodity. …
…some of these rural counties in Arkansas, Mississippi, and Missouri are absolutely devastated for a year. …
…what we call the abort of trade war. …
…the Chinese have a secret weapon…. the iPhone. …
Chinese value added on iPhone is only about 4 percent. … But it would cost the United States a lot. iPhone prices would go skyrocketing. …
… Shutting down trade with Mexico and China would have ripple effects in ways that people don’t think about.
Marcus Noland: …that leadership in trade policy would extend to other areas of diplomacy as well. …
…the perception that the United States might not be steadfast or the perception that the US alliances with South Korea and Japan might be weakening could set off unpredictable sorts of developments in Northeast Asia including promoting nuclear proliferation. …

Assessing Trade Agendas in the US Presidential Campaign (PDF; Sep 2016) | Marcus Noland, Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Sherman Robinson, and Tyler Moran @PIIE
“Could a President Trump Shackle Imports?” | Gary Clyde Hufbauer
Table 1.1
LIMITED STATUTES
Section 232(b). … Under the 1962 Act, upon the request of another federal department or agency, or a private party, or his own initiative, the director of the Office of Emergency Planning shall investigate the impact on national security of the importation of a specified article, and if he finds an adverse impact the president shall impose the necessary import restrictions. …
… Conceivably a President Trump could instruct his officials to investigate the national security implications for the US industrial heartland resulting from thousands of Chinese and Mexican imports. Without exception, the courts defer to executive branch determinations of national security. …
…Section 232(b) tariffs seem immune from challenge either in the US courts or the WTO. However, trading partners might bring a case under GATT Article XXIII Nullification or Im-
pairment, claiming compensation because their legitimate expectations of trade benefits had been defeated by the Article XXI action.17 Or they might simply retaliate without waiting 18 months or more for the WTO Appellate Body to adjudicate their claim.
Section 122. … Under Section 122, the president can impose a
tariff of upto 15 percent or quantitative restrictions, or a combination of the two, for up to 150 days, as a remedy, either on a nondiscriminatory basis or against one or more countries selected because of their large balance of payments surpluses. …highly doubtful that the courts… then invoke it against the same target country or countries for another 150 days.
…unlike Section 232(b) of the 1962 Act, Section 122 tariffs can be imposed across the board without the need for a prior national security investigation.
… Given the historical origins of Section 122 it seems likely that the courts would equate “balance of payments deficits” —the common description of trade deficits in the 1970s and earlier— with the modern concept of “current account deficits.”
… At best, the target countries could bring a GATT Article XXIII Nullification or Impairment case or resort to self-help.
Section 301. …the USTR first determines that a foreign country is denying the United States its rights under a trade agreement or is carrying out practices that are unjustifiable, unreasonable, or discriminatory and burden or restrict US commerce. …
…the Uruguay Round Agreements Act of 1994 does not forbid the USTR from invoking Section 301; it merely gives the USTR discretion not to invoke the statute in the wake of an adverse determination by the WTO. …
ALMOST UNLIMITED STATUTES
Trading with the Enemy Act of 1917. … As originally written, Section 5(b) of TWEA delegated to the president broad war-
time powers to regulate all forms of international commerce and to freeze and seize foreign assets. …
…the US Court of Customs and Patent Appeals (526 F 2d 560) held that the 10 percent surcharge, imposed for three months as part of the “Nixon shock” in 1971, fell within the presidential power to “regulate” imports. …it should be recalled that the constitutional use of the word “regulate” in Article I, Section 8, clearly encompasses the imposition of tariffs. …
Despite the limitation “During the time of war,” which appears in the opening language of Section 5(b)… no congressional declaration (pursuant to Article 1, Section 8 of the US Constitution) is required for the United States to engage in war.
…Trump’s lawyers could easily invoke GATT Article XXI Security Exceptions to defend against a WTO challenge. Again, however, US trade partners might bring a GATT Article XXIII Nullification or Impairment case in the WTO against the United States or might simply resort to self-help by restricting US exports…
International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977. … only during an “unusual and extraordinary threat.” But the courts have never questioned presidential declarations of…
…the history of liberal interpretation of “national emergencies” under TWEA argues strongly against a narrow interpretation of “national emergencies” under IEEPA. …
As with Section 232(b) and TWEA tariffs, Trump’s lawyers could defend IEEPA tariffs against a WTO…
PRELIMINARY INJUNCTIONS?
…“A plaintiff seeking a preliminary injunction must establish that he is likely to succeed on the merits, that he is likely to suffer irreparable harm in the absence of preliminary relief, that the balance of equities tips in his favor, and that an injunction is in the public interest.”
“Irreparable harm” might be the easiest requirement for the corporate plaintiffs to meet. …
CONCLUSION
…trading partners and US firms would quickly fall into line. But if he… imposes the trade restrictions of the magnitudes threatened, foreign countries will soon retaliate. They will not patiently wait for US court proceedings or WTO litigation to vindicate their rights under national or international law.28 Enormous economic damage will ensue long before the legal battlefield is cleared.
Only congressional revocation of powers delegated by TWEA, IEEPA, and other statutes could ensure against the isolationist trade policies…


US Policy Changes Vol.11 (National Security Vol.1)

Here are articles on national security. Excerpts are on our own.

Cyber
Security News This Week: What Trump’s Win Means for Cybersecurity (11/12/2016) | @a_greenberg (@lilyhnewman) @wired
A man…who even reportedly eavesdropped on calls between guests and staff at his Mar-a-lago hotel, would control the world’s most powerful surveillance capabilities.
– Silicon Valley Is Worried Trump Will Demand Their Data
– Rudy Giuliani Eyes Cybersecurity Post in Trump Administration
– Russian Hackers Follow Trump’s Win With More Cyberattacks
– How to Protect Yourself Online in Trump’s America
– Trump Will Inherit Surveillance Powers Enshrined By Obama

NATO
Trump’s national security adviser wants to water down U.S. NATO commitments. Here’s what that means. (11/20/2016) | @JimGoldgeier @monkeycageblog
… NATO is a 20th-century model and needs to be retooled for 21st-century threats that we collectively face, you know cyber is one of them. …
In the 1949 Washington Treaty that established NATO, Article 5 stated, “The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all.” …
Since the end of the Cold War, the alliance has gone to war not to defend a member state from armed attack but for the purpose of humanitarian intervention, first in Kosovo in 1999 and later in Libya in 2011. …
… NATO accepted the Bush administration’s request to assume leadership of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan in August 2003. … Nearly 50 nations, including Azerbaijan, Finland and the United Arab Emirates, sent troops to Afghanistan in support of ISAF’s mission.
… But Russia’s intervention also produced anxiety in the Baltic countries and in Poland about the certainty of NATO’s collective-defense commitment. …
… NATO increased sea patrols in the Baltic and Black seas and stepped up its air defense over its eastern territory. …
… Russia has made its aggressive posture toward Europe clear, and its invasion of Ukraine has undermined the bipartisan effort over the past quarter-century in the United States to build a Europe “whole, free and at peace.” … Uncertainty may be a great form of leverage in a business negotiation but is disastrous for maintaining a strong alliance. …

Brexit
The US President-elect Donald Trump is a real gift to Theresa May’s Brexit negotiations – The Sun columnist argues that with the president-elect on your side, Britain is now in a stronger position than before (w Video; 11/12/2016) | @JGForsyth @TheSun
… Brexit’s critics used to claim that quitting the EU would leave this country isolated on the world stage.
But you can’t claim that when the President-elect of the most powerful country on Earth is in favour of it.
… Gone is all the talk about Britain going “to the back of the queue” after Brexit, to be replaced by warm words about Trump’s desire for a spectacular relationship with the UK.
Mrs May has a chance to create a strong relationship with Trump before other European leaders even start trying.
French and German elections next year mean their leaders will use Trump as a domestic punch-bag. …
… This isn’t about liking Trump or endorsing his views. It is simply being realistic: He is the next US President and Britain has to deal with him.
After all, working with Trump is far less compromising than cooperating with the undemocratic Chinese government.
… If the US starts backing away from its obligation to defend other Nato members from attack then Britain’s nuclear deterrent and military forces will become far more important than before to Europe’s security.
“If you’re the Baltics, you’re more concerned than ever to have a relationship with the UK post-Brexit that maintains security cooperation…

Europe
How President Trump Could Actually Reduce Danger Of War In Europe For The U.S. (11/21/2016) | @lthompsonlex @Forbes
… Russia’s military would have so many advantages in a regional conflict that the West might have to resort to using nuclear weapons to avert defeat. It might also have to attack targets inside Russian borders, which under Moscow’s current military doctrine could result in its own use of nuclear weapons. With only one working missile-warning satellite, Russia could easily misinterpret NATO moves. If Trump bolsters U.S. conventional forces while also scaling back commitments, that could slow the drift toward an uncontrollable nuclear exchange.

Russia
Michael Flynn & Russia: 5 Fast Facts You Need to Know (11/17/2016) | @dsl89 @Heavysan

Turkey
Trump must properly assess YPG threat to Turkey: expert – Incoming US president needs to realize PYD/YPG threat for better relations with Turkey, think thank leader says (11/22/2016) | Esra Kaymak Avci @anadoluagency
…@InsightTurkey…
… The PKK is designated a terrorist group by Turkey, the U.S. and EU, but Washington does not consider the PYD/YPG as a terrorist entity but a “reliable partner“ in Syria to fight Daesh. …
… According to Kanat, the Obama administration emphasized that Daesh was a bigger threat to Turkey than the PYD/YPG and underestimated the significant threat terrorist groups posed to Turkey’s national security.
…the experts agreed Trump would push for the Fetullah Terrorist Organization (FETO) ringleader Fetullah Gulen’s extradition from U.S. in an effort to foster better relations between the two countries. …

Syria
What will Trump do on Syria?: Trump’s “America first” is likely to make him cooperate with Putin on Syria. (w Video; 11/11/2016) | @ramikhouri @AlJazeera
… Trump also has not explicitly criticised Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its annexation of Crimea, suggesting that he might be comfortable with returning to a Cold War-type unofficial agreement on spheres of influence for the two great powers.
…his preference to refrain from criticising human rights violations in increasingly authoritarian regimes in the region and to keep the US out of local conflicts that only destabilise countries (such as Libya, Yemen, and Syria).
… His main aim seems to be to resume some calm in war-torn lands in a manner that allows the US to withdraw its troops from them, even if this means maintaining regimes such as Assad’s and ceding big power influence there to Russia.

Iraq
Will Trump bring better future for Iraqis? (Nov 2016) | @AliMamouri @AlMonitor
… Once the announcement came that Trump had won, many Iraqi politicians and citizens expressed joy. Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi…
Iraqi President Fuad Masum and parliament Speaker Salim al-Jabouri…
The government-funded Iraqi Media Network…
Muwaffaq al-Rubaie…
…Maliki insisted that a number of US troops remain to ensure security…
…@Nahren707…

Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia contemplates Trump (Nov 2016) | Bruce Riedel @AlMonitor
… The royals’ longtime connections to America’s two family dynasties, the Bushes and the Clintons, were on the wrong side of history. … The Saudis are nervous about what they see as rising Islamophobia in America.
… Riyadh would like to see more aggressive moves against Tehran. The United Nations-endorsed nuclear deal with Iran is not Riyadh’s priority; instead, the Saudis want international attention and sanctions focused on Iranian subversion. They will welcome calls for regime change in Tehran and efforts to de-legitimize the Islamic Republic.
… (King) Salman will press the incoming administration to get more deeply involved in getting rid of Assad. The Saudis believe Damascus is the place to upset Iranian influence in the region. … Assad, not the Islamic State (IS), is the top priority for the kingdom.
… The king and his son Prince Mohammed bin Salman argue that they have prevented Iran from getting a foothold on the Arabian Peninsula by going to war against the pro-Iranian Zaydi Houthis and the loyalists of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, but they recognize the war is increasingly costly. …
… Another attempt at a cease-fire collapsed this week. A sudden crisis in the war could be an early test for the new US administration in February 2017.
… Salman is a strong defender of the Islamic identity of Jerusalem. He has been involved in fundraising for supporting the Palestinian cause in Jerusalem since 1967…
… The congressional override of President Barack Obama’s veto of the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act (JASTA) means our oldest and strongest ally in the Arab world is going to be the target of what Saudis believe to be unnecessary and dangerous lawsuits. …

Israel
Jerusalem said to welcome Trump’s ‘pro-Israel’ security picks (11/19/2016) | @TimesofIsrael
… @RepMikePompeo has been one of the leading critics of last year’s deal with Iran that traded sanctions relief for a nuclear rollback, aligning him with much of the centrist and right-wing pro-Israel communities.
… Unlike the majority of Republicans, who single out “Islamists” or “radical jihadists” or some variation thereof, @GenFlynn emphatically targets the entire faith. In August, he spoke at an event in Dallas hosted by the anti-Islamist group Act for America, calling Islam a “cancer” and a “political ideology” that “definitely hides behind being a religion.”
… Flynn reportedly has alarmed intelligence officials who have blamed cyberattacks on Russia. Flynn has been paid for a speech in Moscow and attended an official dinner with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The closeness of a national security adviser to a regime that has joined Iran in a loose military alliance with the Assad rule in Syria is sure to rattle some in Israel’s security establishment.
… Flynn’s consulting firm has also done work for Turkish clients.
… Education Minister Naftali Bennett, head of the right-wing, pro-settler Jewish Home party, said that Trump’s win was also a chance to end of any possibility of a Palestinian state.

Egypt
Egypt’s Sisi is first leader from Arab world to congratulate Trump: Trump previously told Sisi that ‘the United States of America will be a loyal friend, not simply an ally, that Egypt can count on’ (11/9/2016) | @MiddleEastEye
… Egypt is in talks to allow Russia use of military bases across the country, including an air base on the Mediterranean coast close to the border with Libya, Russian media reported last month.
Russia is especially keen to renovate an ex-Soviet naval base in the coastal town of Sidi Barrani, which was used until 1972 to monitor US warships in the Mediterranean, Russian foreign and defence ministry sources told local daily Izvestia. …

Libya
Trump’s challenge: Can he sort out the mess left in Libya? (w Videos; 11/9/2016) | @NicRobertsonCNN @CNN
… Egypt wants to gain strategic depth in eastern Libya, and it has the support of the UAE and Saudi Arabia in backing the former internationally recognized government’s military commander General Haftar in the east. …
… Europe and the US, on the other hand, are backing the UN government…
Can Trump fix this in the first term?
No, for many reasons. If Libya was Trump’s number one priority, one term could be enough to put the country back on track, but it is not. … Egypt will be a big player in fixing Libya, but that country’s relations with the US are not the best…
…Libya would require not just massive diplomatic heavy-lifting, but also the development of a powerful national security force.

Yemen
Trump and the War on Yemen (11/22/2016) | @DanielLarison @amconmag
Michael Brendan Dougherty…
If there is one thing that seems to unite Trump and his various advisers, it is hostility to Iran. The Saudis and their allies have sold the war on Yemen as an intervention against supposed Iranian “expansionism,”… Maybe if someone explained to him that the war has strengthened Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), he would see how U.S. support for the war is undermining our security and that of the region…
If Trump saw U.S. backing for the war as a bad deal, perhaps he could be persuaded to cut off the Saudis and their allies anyway, but there doesn’t appear to be anyone in Trump’s circle that views it this way. …

Iran
Trump’s National Security Picks Are No Fans of Iran or the Nuclear Deal (11/21/2016) | @patrickcnsnews @cnsnews
…from… assurances to Iran on the tightening of the U.S. visa waiver program; to… “delayed and weak” response to Iran’s ballistic missile launches; to secret “side deals” between Iran and the U.N. nuclear watchdog; to the administration’s transfer of $1.7 billion in cash to Iran.
Last January… rejected claims that it amounted to a “ransom,” saying that the money, plus another $1.3 billion in cash paid later, was settlement of a long-outstanding Iranian legal claim.
…Federica Mogherini, who serves as overseer of the JCPOA… pointed out that it is a multilateral deal, enshrined in a U.N. Security Council resolution. …

Afghanistan
President Trump and the War in Afghanistan: What You Need to Know – A situation report on the current terrain. (11/21/2016) | Shawn Snow @Diplomat_APAC
…political complacency could turn the region into a hotbed for al-Qaeda and Islamic State (ISIS) offshoots and potentially waste more than $600 billion in U.S. taxpayer dollars spent to rebuild Afghanistan.
… According to a recent report published by the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), “approximately 63.4 percent of the country’s districts are under Afghan government control or influence as of August 28, 2016, a decrease from the 65.6 percent reported as of May 28, 2016.” However, according to General John Nicholson, commander of the Resolute Support mission in Afghanistan, those districts under Afghan government control contain the majority of the Afghan population, roughly 70 percent.
… The new administration has the ability to capitalize on some of Afghanistan’s progress by maintaining support to the Afghan military, engaging key stakeholders, and spearheading Afghanistan’s international efforts to cultivate shared economic interests with its neighbors, ensuring the landlocked nation does not revert back into a cycle of warlordism, instability and a safe haven for terrorist groups. Now is not the time to abandon Afghanistan.

India
India-Pakistan ‘tinderbox’ to test Donald Trump’s foreign policy (11/20/2016) | @Siddhantmt @WashTimes

East Asia
Donald Trump likely to ask Australia to send ship to South China Sea: ex-Defence official Peter Jennings (11/17/2016) | @SabraLane @ABCaustralia

Japan Stands Firm on Senkaku Islands in East China Sea (9/15/2016) | Michael Hart @GPMonitor

Homeland
A Trump hopeful’s homeland security plan includes a Muslim registry and changes to voting laws (11/21/2016) | @ananya116,@HeathaT @qz

Donald Trump’s team is reportedly considering plans for a registry of Muslim immigrants (11/16/2016) | @ismat @qz

Intelligence
DONALD TRUMP HOPES TO ABOLISH INTELLIGENCE CHIEF POSITION, REVERSE CIA REFORMS (11/18/2016) | @matthewcole,@JennaMC_Laugh @theintercept
…the DNI was never a solution to the 9/11 attacks.
…removing the wall between analysts and spies, putting them together in mission centers, rather than geographic divisions, as had been the organization since the agency was created. The new structure was largely modeled after the Counterterrorism Center, which had become the agency’s dominant section after 9/11. Critics from inside the agency complained that it weakened the core skill of the agency — human espionage — and removed expertise. …
It’s a law… part of the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act; …they would have to pass a new law unwrapping all the things in that law.

Budget
US Budgetary Costs of Wars through 2016: $4.79 Trillion and Counting (PDF; Sep 2016) | @netaxt @WatsonInstitute
… As of August 2016, the US has already appropriated, spent, or taken on obligations to spend more than $3.6 trillion in current dollars on the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan,Pakistan and Syria and on Homeland Security (2001 through fiscal year 2016). To this total should be added the approximately $65 billion in dedicated war spending the Department of Defense and State Department have requested for the next fiscal year, 2017, along with an additional nearly $32 billion requested for the Department of Homeland Security in 2017, and estimated spending on veterans in future years. When those are included, the total US budgetary cost of the wars reaches $4.79 trillion. …

DoD
Top Trump Military Advisers Detail GOP Candidate’s Defense Plan (10/30/2016) | @CavasShips,@reporterjoe @Defense_News
Sen. Jeff Sessions: Trump’s views are that the United States should advance peace through strength. He believes that the military has been degraded. It needs to be rebuilt. …
Trump’s first commitment militarily is the destruction of ISIS. He said he would have his military produce a plan within 30 days. It would involve military action, cyber, financial, ideological and diplomatic efforts to focus on the destruction of ISIS. …
He indicates and has said repeatedly he is proud of the American way. He will not apologize for that around the world, but will celebrate our achievements. …
Specifically with the Defense Department… He proposes that the Army should be sustained at 540,000 troops.
… He just believes that we should have a Navy that is capable of providing American presence in different areas of the globe. …
Rep. Randy Forbes: … we are going to have an international defense strategy that is driven by the Pentagon and not by the political National Security Council. …
…will not create the military strategy…
… President Trump is going to return the direction on our capacity and capability so that president has more options. …
Sessions: … He also was very explicit and strong about missile defense with Iran and North Korea. And North Korea with nuclear bombs and Iran able to get them in a short period of time. …
… But we need to attempt to, because Russia – if you look at it in a realist approach. Look at it according to what our national interests are. The United States and Russia should be able to be far more harmonious than we are today. But things have really deteriorated. China is also asserting itself dramatically. The Japanese have been having to launch aircraft to intercept Chinese aircraft. They are very close to Japan on a regular basis at record levels. …
Forbes: … Because one of the things Mr. Trump realizes is you don’t build your national defense on what you think the other players’ intent might be. Intent can change in 48 hours. You build it on capacity and capability.
Sessions: … The world needs to know that we are not going to be a second-rate military power. You are not going to surpass us. I think that kind of strength allows us to do a better job of maintaining peace in the world.
Sessions: Well, we are going to need to continue our ballistic missile defense system. We already have the technology to put in a much better guidance system for those missiles. …


US Policy Changes Vol.10 (R&D Vol.1)

Here are articles on R&D. Excerpts are on our own.

Historical Trends in Federal R&D | @aaas

R&D Budgets | @whitehouseostp

Bill Gates Calls on the U.S. Government To Invest More in R&D (4/18/2016) | @clairezillman @FortuneMagazine

Trump Win Roils Technology Sector (11/9/2016) | @rickbmerritt @eetimes
… The Semiconductor Industry Association has long advocated free trade such as the Trans Pacific Partnership and other trade deals and relaxed immigration for foreign nationals with advanced STEM degrees. …
… Dozens of tech executives, investors and engineers including Vint Cerf, Irwin and Paul Jacobs, Vinod Khosla and Steve Wozniak posted an open letter opposing Trump prior to yesterday’s vote. …

Here’s how a Trump presidency could affect U.S. biomedical R&D (11/16/2016) | @trueviralnews
…@FASEBopa…
… The future also remains uncertain for funding for specific medical research programs spearheaded by President Obama’s administration, like the BRAIN Initiative, Precision Medicine Initiative, and Cancer Moonshot…

Trump, Republican victory to boost biotech M&A (11/11/2016) | Ben Adams @reuters
… There’s been a gap between what acquirers and shareholders are willing to pay for a biotech company and what the company’s board thinks it’s worth…
…he will “Advance research and development in healthcare” and “Reform the Food and Drug Administration, to put greater focus on the need of patients for new and innovative medical products,”…

What will science funding look like under Trump? Here’s one prediction. (11/14/2016) | @bradplumer @voxdotcom
… The federal government currently spends $150 billion or so per year on research and development (R&D), funding one-third of all science in this country — everything from cancer research to the fundamentals of cell biology to solar power to supersonic flight to how to reduce fertilizer use. …
…@MattHourihan, the director of the R&D Budget and Policy Program for @aaas… tweets

Trump and Science: The president-elect’s statements suggest a practical outlook, which makes a welcome contrast with Barack Obama’s crusading spirit. (11/14/2016) | John Tierney ‏@CityJournal
…@SciDebate… Instead of promising to install a half-billion new solar panels, as Clinton promised to do, Trump offered the kind of perspective found in the Copenhagen Consensus, a group of prominent economists who have concluded that other problems are far more pressing than climate change.

What does Trump’s presidency mean for the tech industry? (11/10/2016) | ‏@BIIntelligence

Surge in R&D Spending Burnishes U.S. Image as Innovation Nation (3/26/2015) | @mljamrisko @business
… Pharmaceutical companies were some of the biggest spenders on R&D in 2012, running up a $48.1 billion tab…@NSF… The information industry — including publishing, telecommunications and data processing — shelled out $46.8 billion, while transportation-equipment makers spent about $42.3 billion.
Caterpillar Inc., the world’s biggest maker of construction machinery, plans to boost R&D spending in 2015 for a third year even as sales probably will decline…
… The U.S. is a leader in R&D spending in part because some 70 percent of venture capital money is based here… This is “another good barometer of how innovation-oriented a particular region is,”…
… “Diminishing returns have set in,” as the workforce shrinks because of the retirement of baby boomers, educational attainment remains low, inequality widens and federal debt balloons due to entitlement programs, (Robert) Gordon (@NorthwesternU) wrote in a February 2014 research paper titled “The Demise of U.S. Economic Growth.”
Loretta Mester, president of @ClevelandFed…@business_econ… she’s “not a structural-stagnation kind of person,” citing the theory which argues the economy is trapped in a prolonged period of sub-par growth.
“Productivity growth is low now, but I think it’s going to come back,”… “It’s hard for me to believe that all of the things going on in the technology realm and the biotechnology realm are not going to lead to stronger productivity and better standards of living for us.”
…@NFIB…
“I don’t think all the gains from technology have been exhausted,”… “The fact that R&D spending is rising is a sign that firms are willing to take risks and all the good things have yet to be invented.”

U.S. R&D: A troubled enterprise (5/28/2016) | @scott_andes,@markmuro1 @brookingsinst


US Policy Changes Vol.9 (Hospitality Vol.1)

Here are articles on hospitality industry. Excerpts are on our own.

President Trump: The Travel Industry Reacts With Caution, Not Enthusiasm (11/10/2016) | @sarahenelow @skift
…new U.S. security policies could…inbound tourism from Mexico. A U.S. ban on Muslim visitors could cost $71 billion and up to 132,000 jobs annually, according to @Euromonitor…
…@Expedia… …@AAHOA… …@priceline… …@TripAdvisor… …@NorwegianBrasil… somewhat counterintuitively, saw the upcoming Republican control of the White House and Congress as grounds for optimism that the U.S. economic embargo of Cuba would be lifted. …@MarriottIntl… …@Delta, @AmericanAir, and @united… a Trump presidency would mean the renegotiation of Open Skies agreements and limits on Gulf carriers’ access to the U.S. market…
…@WTTC and @USTravel… the travel industry will remain a priority globally and also in Washington’s corridors of political power.
…@dkhos… …‏@MomondoGroup @hugoburge… …@OpenFairSkies…
…@CarolineBremner… Travel and tourism is directly impacted by government policies on trade and immigration. …it will stimulate increased demand for domestic tourism, as Americans will have less discretionary income as the U.S. economy decelerates, making the staycation a more affordable travel option to many. …there could also be opportunities for home-grown American brands, and those whose marketing message registers with Trump’s rhetoric and is centered on nostalgia, localism and heritage.  
…‏@AirlinesDotOrg…
We look forward to working with the Transition Team on strengthening our infrastructure in the sky… The current U.S. Air Traffic Control system, while safe, is an inefficient relic of the 1940s. We’re eager to work with President-Elect Trump to transform it to reduce delays for the 2.2 million passengers and 50,000 tons of cargo that fly every day…
…@ChipRogersGT… …@DScowsill… …@ASTAAgents… …@NomadnessTribe @evierobbie… …@blkandabroad…

Donald Trump’s stunning victory and its impact on the hospitality industry (11/9/2016) | @DavidEisen3 @HotelMgmtMag
Ken Wilson, managing director and co-chairman of asset manager @CHMWarnick… “Our goal as an asset manager is to maintain the value of our assets and offset anything negative,”… “The things we have to watch out for are things like Obamacare. Our industry has millions of employees and a lot of them using the system. I don’t think our costs will go higher with that change. Maybe lower.” “If you believe in tax relief and that’s the Republican platform, it boosts spending and travel. We are the immediate beneficiaries,”…

SHOULD US HOSPITALITY BE WORRIED ABOUT A TRUMP PRESIDENCY? (11/10/2016) | @britannia88 @HotelDesigns

What Impact Will Trump Have On Tourism? (11/10/2016) | @stephronyt @nytimes
…how attractive the United States continue to be to foreign tourists will depend on how affordable it is to visit…  … ‏@EtihadAirways… …‏@emirates… …@qatarairways…
…@thehipmunk…

United States Travel Association Panel Talks Trump (11/10/2016) | Richard D’Ambrosio @TravelMktReport
…@USTravel… President-Elect Donald Trump will take a more aggressive approach on issues like immigration reform and homeland security, and help the travel community, given that he owns several hospitality companies…
Trump “totally gets” that tourism creates jobs, said @JonathanGrella… “You’re not starting at square one and educating him about that.”
…@MonumentPolicy… …@SamGeduldig…
…there is some evidence we will be able to work with the Trump administration for a safe [Homeland Security] system, but a system that allows for the free flow of legitimate travelers…
…a Trump presidency would work toward improving the travel industry’s infrastructure, including the nation’s airports.

Airlines to Trump: Block Rivals and Privatize Air Traffic Control – Will the Republican administration be friendlier than Obama? Here’s the industry wish list. (11/9/2016) | @justinbachman, Michael Sasso @business
… U.S. carriers, with the notable exception of Delta, are pressing for Congress to transfer air traffic control from the Federal Aviation Administration to a new not-for-profit entity similar to the model used in Canada to control airspace. …
…@jzuckman… …@leocha @TravelersOrg…@Engage_Cuba…


US Policy Changes Vol.8 (Infrastructure/Economy Vol.1)

Here are articles on infrastructure. Excerpts are on our own.

Trump’s Infrastructure Fix: Let Somebody Else Spend $1 Trillion (11/10/2016) | @adavies47 @wired
… It’s a great investment, especially in an age of low interest rates: Putting just $18 billion a year into roads, bridges, and waterways could create a $29 billion jump in GPD and more than 200,000 jobs in the first year, says @joshbivens_DC, research and policy director of @EconomicPolicy.
…details on how he’ll do that in Trump Versus Clinton On Infrastructure (PDF; 10/27/2016) | Wilbur Ross & Peter Navarro
The idea is to trigger $1 trillion in private sector infrastructure spending with $140 billion in tax credits for the companies willing to do the work.
“Getting the private sector involved is terribly important,” says Brian Pallasch, managing director at @ASCETweets… …the US is among the most attractive nations for those looking to invest in infrastructure, according to THIRD GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT INDEX 2016: BRIDGING THE INVESTMENT GAP | @ArcadisGlobal.
…@edwardalden, a senior fellow with ‏@CFR_org. Indeed: A June survey found 71 percent of Southern California drivers would pay up to $20 per commute if they could drive a traffic-free, new expressway.
… “With privatized infrastructure, you can run the risk of giving the private asset holders weirdly too-much power over future investment decisions,” says @joshbivens_DC, at @EconomicPolicy. …

TO FAILURE TO ACT: THE IMPACT OF INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT ON AMERICA’S ECONOMIC FUTURE (PDF; May 2016) | Economic Development Research Group, Inc. (@ASCETweets)
p4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
… From 2016 to 2025, each household will lose $3,400 each year in disposable income due to infrastructure deficiencies; and if not addressed, the loss will grow to an average of $5,100 annually from 2026 to 2040, resulting in cumulative losses up to almost $34,000 per household from 2016 to 2025 and almost $111,000 from 2016 to 2040 (all dollars in 2015 value).
Over time, these impacts will also affect businesses’ ability to provide well-paying jobs, further reducing incomes. If this investment gap is not addressed throughout the nation’s infrastructure sectors by 2025, the economy is expected to lose almost $4 trillion in GDP, resulting in a loss of 2.5 million jobs in 2025.
p5-7, 10, 26

Trump’s plan to rebuild America will be a lot harder to pay for than it sounds (w Video; 11/14/2016) | @johnwschoen @CNBC
DRIVERS OF INFRASTRUCTURE: FAST Act; States & local government secular trend; Huge Trump infrastructure trend

Conservatives vs. Trump’s infrastructure plan: The president-elect’s $1 trillion proposal is getting a welcome from Democrats but not from conservative groups. (11/11/2016) | @kathrynwolfe,@Gardner_LM @politico
… “Conservatives do not view infrastructure spending as an economic stimulus, and congressional Republicans rightly rejected that approach in 2009,” said @danholler (@Heritage_Action)…
“There is little evidence that these public works projects promote long-run economic growth,” @ceidotorg fellow @marcscribner…
@BAFuture…pledged to work with Trump and Congress “to tackle this unifying issue in the first 100 days.” @PeterARuane, CEO of @ARTBA… “the bipartisan aspect of this is compelling.”
…Bud Wright, executive director of @aashtospeaks… “We certainly believe that we need additional federal investment, but really finding funding to do that — using some traditional or creative sources to generate new revenues — is important.”
The only way to fix the Highway Trust Fund long term… Kathryn B. Thomson (@MoFoLLP)… “There’s a fundamental unwillingness to make politically difficult choices.”
Ed Mortimer, executive director of transportation infrastructure for @ChamberMoves… some kind of sustainable funding fix should be part of whatever plan the new president offers. …

Trump’s plan to spend on infrastructure leads companies to pitch their products as infrastructure (11/18/2016) | @StevenMufson @latimes
…Mrinalini Ingram, vice president of smart communities at @verizon… Verizon networking technology embedded in LED street lights and blue-light kiosks where pedestrians in danger can call police.
…Richard Lukas, director of federal grants and program development at @tpl_org, was worrying about the fate of federal grants used to fund a riverside park in Newark, N.J., a three-mile park along an abandoned rail line in Chicago, and a trail and bike system in Cleveland.
… “Infrastructure doesn’t just mean roads and bridges. Infrastructure means a lot of different things to a lot of different people,” said @JasonGrumet @BPC_Bipartisan…
…the Trump administration should use the tax credit to let the private market decide which projects to undertake. ‏@GinniRometty @IBM… “As we build big, let’s also build smart,”…”The country should focus on infrastructure investments that incorporate Internet of Things (IoT) technology and artificial intelligence to improve performance.” “And as infrastructure gets smarter, it also increases the need for cybersecurity…
“It’s a huge opportunity,” said @API_News President Jack Gerard, “that doesn’t cost taxpayers money.”
…Sean McGarvey, president of @BldgTrdsUnions…
…@usmayors…

The Trump factor: can infrastructure rebuild your investments?- UK and US governments need the private sector to help finance projects (11/17/2016) | @Aime_Williams,@naomi_rovnick @ft
… While the American Society of Civil Engineers has projected a $1.44tn funding investment gap between 2016 and 2025 on infrastructure, consultancy McKinsey estimates that $57tn is needed globally by 2030 to finance infrastructure projects.
… In the UK, Philip Hammond, the chancellor, is expected to announce a boost for infrastructure projects in his first Autumn Statement this month. …
…Jorge Rodríguez (Deutsche Asset Management)… subsectors include energy and utilities businesses such as those providing gas, water and waste disposal, alongside those involved in improving transport. This could be building or operating motorways, airports, seaports…
…“social” infrastructure, such as schools, hospitals and court rooms, as well as more specialised infrastructure that requires high levels of technological prowes…
… In the UK, pension funds have piled into infrastructure following years of low bond yields, encouraged by hopes that the government reforms might make it easier for them to pool assets and invest in big projects. The problem…
If Mr Trump carries through his plan to spend “double” what Mrs Clinton had promised on infrastructure, the US construction industry should see an uplift of around 30 per cent, says Mr Simon Clinch (@InvescoUS). Even so, he warns that just as infrastructure is a long-term investment, the benefits may not show up on the balance sheets of construction companies for quite some time.


US Policy Changes Vol.7 (Foreign Policy Vol.1)

Here are articles on foreign policy. Excerpts are on our own.

Trump’s foreign policy pledges — will he keep them? (11/17/2016) | @JessicaDurando @usatoday (@OrenDorell, @alangomez, @EricJLyman, @jimmichaels)
1. WALL ALONG MEXICO
2. ISRAEL
…would move the U.S. Embassy from Tel Aviv to the contested city of Jerusalem, breaking with a half-century of U.S. policy that says the future of Jerusalem must be decided in talks between Israel and the Palestinians.
3. IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL
4. U.S. TROOPS IN ASIA
5. PARIS CLIMATE DEAL
Legally, a country can withdraw three years after the agreement goes into force, and then it must wait a year for the withdrawal to go into effect. That means a formal withdrawal by the U.S. could not happen before 2020, at the end of Trump’s four-year term.
6. NATO
7. NAFTA
… But such a provocative step could invite retaliation in the form of import duties on U.S. goods. The result would be a global trade war that could trigger a worldwide recession.
8. RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA
In a phone call Monday, Trump and Putin agreed that U.S.-Russian relations are in “extremely unsatisfactory” condition now. The two also discussed the need to join forces to combat international terrorism. Hours after the phone call, Russia launched a major military offensive in Syria on behalf of Assad…
The Kremlin said Trump and Putin spoke about the need “to normalize ties and engage in constructive cooperation on a broad range of issues.” The Kremlin also pledged to build “dialogue with the new administration on the principles of equality, mutual respect and non-interference in the internal affairs of each other.”
9. COMBATING THE ISLAMIC STATE
…has also said he will give his generals 30 days after he takes office…
In general he has hinted at ramping up the war against the radical militant group, but avoid getting the United States into a Middle East quagmire. …
…Mosul — the last major Iraqi city in the militants’ hands…
…the Islamic State loses territory in Iraq and Syria since its peak in 2014…
10. ENDING SYRIAN WAR
… Currently, the United States is targeting the Islamic State but refuses to coordinate with Russia because of its support for Assad and attacks on U.S.-backed rebel groups. …

5 Big Foreign Policy Challenges For President-Elect Trump (11/12/2016) | @nprparallels
China (@rob_schmitz)
… The country is undergoing an historic economic transition, its growth has slowed and it still relies heavily on exports, so a trade spat with one of its most important trading partners could have widespread consequences.
…as president, Trump will rebuild the U.S. Navy, adding more than 70 ships to its current fleet, in part to protect the $5 trillion of annual trade across the South China Sea…
Russia (@Lucian_Kim)
… If the United States drops sanctions, other European countries could follow, breaking the 28-member EU’s tenuous consensus on sanctions.
Syria (@AliceFordham)
Terrorism (Philip Ewing)
President Obama’s ISIS strategy has been to help local fighters, including Iraq’s military and, in the case of Syria, indigenous Kurds, Arabs and others. American forces are mostly in “supporting” roles, training combatants and providing combat power from the air. …
Trade (@jackienortham)
… Trump will find it difficult to roll back a trade agreement that has been in place so long and includes protections against unilateral withdrawal, but could slowly kill the deal by repudiating elements of it and enforcing trade restrictions.
… Trump promises to slap to big tariffs on Chinese imports, which would raise the cost of consumer goods coming in to the U.S. China could respond by shutting off market access and raising tariffs on imports from the U.S., which could hurt American manufacturing, financial services and even agricultural sectors. … Analyst warn that Trump needs to go slow on his trade agenda, otherwise he risks retaliation from some of the world’s most important trade partners.

What a President Trump means for foreign policy (11/9/2016) | @ProfSaunders @washingtonpost @CFR_org
…leaders’ beliefs about the nature of threats had important implications for when and how they decide to use military force. …leaders’ beliefs are very stable over time. They tend to be formed before presidents take office, and then leaders view the events and crises of their tenures through the lens of those beliefs. …
…the balance of experience between the leader and advisers matters: Inexperienced presidents are less able to monitor their advisers, question assumptions and plans and diversify advice. This means that these advisers will be greatly empowered, allowing them to pursue initiatives more independently — and enabling or magnifying any biases they have. …
…we would expect greater-than-average infighting — even if experienced hands serve in a Trump administration. …Leaks or public statements might affect public or congressional support for Trump’s decisions, or he might listen to certain advisers because he fears the political ramifications of acting against them. …
But there are also other, less visible ways that presidents can shape foreign policy. Their staffing decisions and policy directives…“policy investments”…reflect their core beliefs and can reach deeply into the bureaucracy. …
…the public does not pay much attention to the day-to-day details of foreign policy, which is one source of presidential power on international affairs. …
…the ones to pay attention to the details of Trump’s foreign policy and sound the alarm if it trends in dangerous directions. Even with Republican control of Congress, these voices may be heard, especially if the divide between Trump and Republican foreign policy elites persists.

Donald Trump’s Foreign-Policy Challenges (11/9/2016) | @Joe_Nye @ProSyn
… Despite Trump’s campaign rhetoric, the US is not in decline. Because of immigration, it is the only major developed country that will not suffer a demographic decline by mid-century; its dependence on energy imports is diminishing rather than rising; it is at the forefront of the major technologies (bio, nano, information) that will shape this century; and its universities dominate the world league tables. …
…it is important to resist Putin’s game-changing challenge to the post-1945 liberal order’s prohibition on the use of force by states to seize territory from their neighbors. At the same time, Trump is correct to avoid the complete isolation of a country with which we have overlapping interests when it comes to nuclear security, non-proliferation, anti-terrorism, the Arctic, and regional issues like Iran and Afghanistan. Financial and energy sanctions are necessary for deterrence; but we also have genuine interests that are best advanced by dealing with Russia. No one would gain from a new Cold War.

A New American Foreign Policy?: President Trump could upend the role the U.S. has played in international affairs since World War II. (11/14/2016) | MICHAEL MANDELBAUM @aminterest
… The United States has served as the mainstay of the open international economic order that has flourished and expanded since 1945. It has also served as the mainstay of a global security order that, if it has not brought unbroken peace, has at least made the world more peaceful than it would have been without America’s global presence, policies, and commitments. …
… The American policy of free trade has underpinned the economic order, and the American system of alliances has supported global security. …
… When the Cold War ended, the original rationale disappeared, but the policies, and the institutions that carried them out, continued—through the force of inertia, and because they cost the public very little. Now…
… Republican Members of Congress, with whom Mr. Trump will have to work, tend to favor more robust international engagement than his rhetoric suggests that he does. …may change his mind about which policies serve the national interest…
…the question of whether the United States should continue to provide governmental services to the world did not figure as a central issue in the campaign. It would be an exaggeration to say that the President-elect has a strong mandate to jettison the course that his 12 immediate predecessors steered. …

The greatest unknown yet: Donald Trump’s foreign policy – Naivety over Vladimir Putin, scepticism on Nato, his stance on the Middle East – Trump is sowing uncertainty among governments around the world (11/14/2016) | @J_Greenstock @guardian
… The two most important pillars of the global system of nation states are security and economic order. …
… The risk in the short term is that Putin, who has no respect for western strategic decision-making, may exploit the American interregnum and challenge Nato over Ukraine or the Baltics. He is certainly going to continue his monstrous bombing campaign in Syria.
… The avoidance of escalation will come at a cost to the US, because Washington has refused since 1990 to regard Moscow as an equal player. Does Trump have the courage, and the political capital, to bring the superpower down to the level of the lapsed superpower…
… They must be brought into any new Washington outreach – with Shinzo Abe’s Japan, struggling with reform, looking on anxiously. …
… It could be the clearest symptom yet of the disadvantage of democracy, that it enables the removal of governments the people dislike, but does not necessarily create the conditions for wiser ones to follow – a phenomenon not so different, after all, from the results of the Arab spring. …

Pick Your Poison: Clinton Vs. Trump on Foreign Policy (6/15/2016) | @SZunes (@usfca) @HuffPostPol
… Overall, Trump may be the bigger militarist. Though he has attacked Clinton for backing the invasion of Iraq and the bloody counter-insurgency war that followed, archived interviews have indicated that Trump did not actually oppose the war as he’s claimed. Same with U.S. intervention in Libya. Indeed, in both cases, Trump called for an even greater use of force, including seizure of oil fields for U.S. economic benefit. He also agrees with Clinton to militarily intervene in Syria to create “safe zones” for refugees and to escalate U.S. bombing against ISIS.
… Trump also claims “our nuclear weapons arsenal”—on which Obama plans to spend nearly $1 trillion over the next thirty years—“has been allowed to atrophy and is desperately in need of modernization and renewal.” He has criticized Obama’s cancellation of the missile defense program, despite extraordinary cost and highly dubious efficacy. He pledges to dramatically increase military spending.

Harvard Prof. Reframes U.S. Foreign Policy (10/2/2016) | Anthony Rein ‏@bcheights
… This strategy of liberal hegemony sees the U.S. as a force for the spread of international institutions, free-market economics, human rights, and especially democracy that goes well beyond U.S. national security needs. This view is good for the U.S.’s self-image, but it is fundamentally flawed, Walt said.
In his view, it increases the area the U.S. must defend, but does not increase the means to defend it, and has led to more failure than success in preventing the spread of nuclear weapons.
… Rather than take on burdens across the world in the name of liberal values, this strategy would use local powers to prevent the rise of a hegemon in the key areas mentioned, using American military power only when necessary to prevent a country from having too much dominance in the region, he said.
… Walt differentiated offshore balancing from liberal hegemony in that the primary goal is not peace and democracy. Instead, American power and military might should be used to prevent one nation from gaining too much dominance in a region…
“If other societies see the United States as a just, fair, tolerant, and prosperous place they’re more likely to want something similar for themselves. So building a better democracy here at home is probably the best way to encourage it abroad.”

Foreign Policy Under Trump: While inconsistent campaign rhetoric makes it difficult to forecast where the U.S. is headed, some ‏@FletcherSchool experts are wary of president-elect’s hard-charging style (11/16/2016) | Heather Stephenson @TuftsNow
… @EileenBabbitt, a professor of practice of international conflict analysis and resolution and director of ‏@FletcherSchool’s Institute for Human Security, cautioned that the zero-sum, hard-bargaining style that Trump has employed in business may escalate tensions on the international stage, where “escalation leads to potentially devastating consequences.” For example, she said, if Trump pulls the U.S. out of the Iran deal, Iran could be free to develop its nuclear capacity, and the likelihood of a pre-emptive strike from Israel, if it feels threatened, would increase. “I hope calmer heads prevail,” she said.
(professor of international law Michael) Glennon… said that U.S. democracy is in crisis because of “pervasive civic ignorance.” …argued that Americans who do not support Trump’s policies should “resist with empathy” by organizing, lobbying and filing lawsuits.

The National Security Agenda He Must Address by the End of the Coming Spring (w PDF; 11/14/2016) | Anthony H. Cordesman @CSIS
The FY2018 Budget Submission Sets the President’s Stage
The Key Players Are Half the Game
Reshaping the Momentum of Ongoing Events
Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the “Forgotten War”
Iraq, Syria, and ISIL/ISIS/Daesh
Iran and America’s Arab Security Partners
China, North and South Korea, Japan, and Other Asian Security Partners
NATO, Russia, and Burden Sharing
Supporting the New President as Reality Intervenes

10 Big Nuclear Ideas (PDF; Nov 2016) | @plough_shares
@SenMarkey – Reduce, Reform, and Restrain: a Nuclear Agenda for the 21st Century
@TomCollina – Big Ideas for Big Challenges
@ValeriePlame – Break with Cold War Thinking
@Gen_Jcartwright – Reduce the U.S. Nuclear Arsenal, with or without Russia
@SecDef19 – Phase Out America’s ICBMs
@SenFeinstein and @RepAdamSmith – Cancel the New Nuclear Cruise Missile
@KennetteBene – Add Democracy to Nuclear Policy
Steve Andreasen (@NTI_WMD) and @isabelle_nti – Bring Home U.S. Tactical Nuclear Weapons from Europe
@TyttiE – Press Pause on Missile Defense in Europe
@suzannedimaggio – Learn from Iran, Engage North Korea
@frankvonhippel – Ban Production of Highly Enriched Uranium
@BeaFihn – Support a Global Ban on Nuclear Weapons

How President Trump Might Radically Rethink U.S. Nuclear Policy: Worried about Donald Trump having his finger on the nuclear button? Don’t be, yet. His penchant for upsetting the status quo could be just what we need. (11/16/2016) | @TomCollina @ForeignPolicy

THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN AND THE CRISIS OF US FOREIGN POLICY | @thomaswright08 @LowyInstitute

@georgetownsfs ON TOPIC: 2016 RACE TO THE WHITE HOUSE

WHAT IF DONALD TRUMP WINS? EXPERT PREDICTIONS FOR USA UNDER ‘PRESIDENT TRUMP’ AND CONSEQUENCES FOR THE WORLD (6/24/2016) | @jonvankin ‏@theinquisitr

Roundtable tries to predict future foreign policy under Trump (11/14/2016) | Amanda Bosworth @CU_Chronicle @cornellgov

GOP foreign policy leaders grow despondent: After a burst of optimism that Trump would take a conciliatory path, veterans of past administrations express alarm at names being floated for top posts. (11/17/2016) | @michaelcrowley & @ShaneGoldmacher @politico

The U.S.-Japan alliance (w PDF; 7/13/2016) | John R. Allen & @benssugg @BrookingsFP

National Security and the 2016 Election (4/21/2016) | Ronald R. Krebs #FifteenEightyFour @CambridgeUP

Possible SecDef Pick, Clinton Advisers Talk Trump Foreign Policy (11/15/2016) | @OswaldRachel @rollcall @BelferCenter
…important for Trump to assemble a team made up of personalities who are able to work well together.
…A president can’t be a full-time manager of his or her national security team…


US Policy Changes Vol.6 (Tax/Budget/Economy Vol.1)

Here are articles on tax (and budget/economy). Excerpts are on our own.

Who Benefits From Donald Trump’s Tax Plan? (w Voice; 11/13/2016) | @jey51 ‏@nprpolitics
…Michael Pollard @RANDCorporation… …@lilybatch @nyulaw @TaxPolicyCenter…
…the top 1 percent would get about half of the benefits of his tax cuts, and a millionaire, for example, would get an average tax cut of $317,000… a family earning between $40,000 and $50,000 a year would get a tax cut of only $560… A single parent who’s earning $75,000 and has two school-age children, they would face a tax increase of over $2,400…
@StephenCalk… the loss of the exemption is partially offset by other changes in Trump’s plan. … there will be big tax cuts for middle-income families. …a family earning $50,000 a year… child-care costs are $7,000 or $8,000 a year. …going to save 35 percent on their net tax bracket.
@lilybatch… calculation is misleading because it focuses on tax rate reduction rather than a family’s after-tax income — in other words, how much money they have in their pocket after taxes.
But @StephenCalk… personal-income tax cuts, as well as the Trump proposal to reduce the corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 15 percent…

Trump vs. Clinton: their tax proposals (10/23/2016) | @ChrisSangerEY @EY_TaxInsights
…immediate expensing of new business investments…
…limited to manufacturers, and those who elect expensing will lose the deductibility of corporate interest expense.
…most corporate tax expenditures would be eliminated, except for the R&D Credit. … a step-up in basis would be disallowed for estates over US$10 million: “The Trump plan will repeal the death tax, but capital gains held until death will be subject to tax, with the first US$10 million tax-free as under current law to exempt small businesses and family farms. …
…allow working parents to deduct from their income taxes child care expenses for up to four children and elderly dependents, capped at the average cost of care for the state of residence. …
The eldercare exclusion would be capped at US$5,000 per year. …creating Dependent Care Savings Accounts that would allow both tax-deductible contributions and tax-free appreciation year-to-year. …six weeks of paid maternity leave by amending the existing unemployment insurance…

AN ANALYSIS OF DONALD TRUMP’S TAX PLAN (PDF; 12/22/2015) | Jim Nunns, Len Burman, Jeff Rohaly, and Joe Rosenberg ‏@TaxPolicyCenter
ABSTRACT
… His plan would significantly reduce marginal tax rates on individuals and businesses, increase standard deduction amounts to nearly four times current levels, and curtail many tax expenditures. His proposal would cut taxes at all income levels, although the largest benefits, in dollar and percentage terms, would go to the highest-income households. The plan would reduce federal revenues by $9.5 trillion over its first decade before accounting for added interest costs or considering macroeconomic feedback effects. …
SUMMARY AND INTRODUCTION
Individual Income Tax
• Collapse the current seven tax brackets, which range from 10 to 39.6 percent, into three brackets of 10, 20, and 25 percent.
• Increase the standard deduction to $25,000 for single filers and $50,000 for joint filers in 2015, indexed for inflation thereafter.
• Tax dividends and capital gains at a maximum rate of 20 percent.
Estate and Gift Taxes
• Repeal federal estate and gift taxes.
Business Taxes
• Reduce the corporate tax rate to 15 percent.
• Limit the top individual income tax rate on pass-through businesses such as partnerships to no more than 15 percent.
• Repeal most tax breaks for businesses.
• Repeal the corporate alternative minimum tax.
• Impose up to a 10 percent deemed repatriation tax on the accumulated profits of foreign subsidiaries of US companies…
• Tax future profits of foreign subsidiaries of US companies each year as the profits are earned.
TABLE 1, 3, 4

Trump’s Tax Cuts May Be More Important for the Economy Than His Trade Policies: @barclay’s economists expect a net positive effect on growth next year. (w Video; 11/10/2016) | @is_fink @markets
… “In essence, our baseline is constructed on the theme that protectionist trade policy imposes a tax on the domestic economy in terms of higher prices, forced reallocation of activity, and potentially slower productivity growth,” the analysts led by Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen write in a note published on Wednesday. “To compensate for this, public sector policy then reduces personal and corporate tax rates and expands public sector investment spending.” …
“All told, the impulse to real GDP growth from consumption and investment is 1.0-1.5 percentage points in late 2017 and early 2018, which would more than offset the drag in activity we estimated from higher tariffs…

Trump’s Tax Plan (11/13/2016) | Lee Sheppard @Forbes
… inject $4-6 trillion into the economy over 10 years, mostly by means of business tax cuts. … supply-side economics… Two problems:
First… Think of it as the tax version of QE. But consumption has fallen, and newly subsidized businesses would still need customers in order for investing to make sense.
Second… the system as a whole is not redistributive. … it would not put a lot more money in the hands of people with a high marginal propensity to consume.
… The House Republicans have proposed the destination-based cash flow tax would work like a subtraction method VAT. It would be a cash flow tax because capital equipment expenditures could be immediately deducted in full. Intellectual property, research and wages costs would also be fully deductible. … likely to be the starting point for Trump business tax cuts.
… The trouble with this plan is that it isn’t a VAT, and it wouldn’t satisfy the WTO trade agreements the United States signed. … Exporters could deduct domestic wages and importers couldn’t deduct foreign wages. … There are theorists who think that Congress might deliberately set up a WTO violation in order to be told to adopt a VAT instead.
The House Republicans also propose a European territorial dividend exemption system for the benefit of a handful of large businesses like Apple, Google and Big Pharma. …
… Trump proposes a deemed repatriation at a 10% rate for cash and 4% for earnings not represented by cash. …

Trump’s tax policy bad news for Europe? (11/11/2016) | @RFI_English
… Seven hundred US companies employ more than 100,000 people in Ireland, according to an @AmericanChamber report.
@danobrien20 at @iiea also warns that Trump’s plan could “deteriorate in a trade war,” as “the US and Europe already have very deep disagreements” on issues of trade.

Analyses of 2016 Candidates’ Tax Plans Demonstrate That Dynamic Scoring Is Now Mainstream (10/31/2016) | @CurtisDubay @heritage
@TaxFoundation… the Trump plan would grow the economy between 6.9 percent and 8.2 percent, depending on how it treats pass-through businesses. If those businesses pay the 15 percent business rate, the plan would be more pro-growth. … “the larger economy [is] due chiefly to the significantly lower cost of capital under the proposal, which is due to the lower corporate income tax rate and expensing for those firms that choose to adopt it instead of deducting interest.”
@TaxPolicyCenter found smaller growth effects for the Trump plan than it found for @TaxFoundation. It estimates that the Trump plan would increase aggregate demand “by about 1.7 percent in 2017, by 1 percent in 2018, and by smaller amounts in later years.” It also reports a range of growth estimates under varying assumptions. After less than 10 years, @TaxPolicyCenter estimates that Trump’s tax cuts would reduce the size of the economy.
@TaxPolicyCenter sees short-term growth resulting from the Trump tax plan because it increases after-tax incomes for most households, which they would likely spend, and because the expensing provisions would increase business investment.

Details and Analysis of Donald Trump’s Tax Plan (w PDF; 9/29/2015) | @AlanMCole @TaxFoundation

Donald Trump tax policy (w PDF) | @DeloitteTax
PDF (11/10/2016): Tax policy decisions ahead – Impact of the 2016 elections

Election results may provide opportunities for major tax law changes in 2017 (PDF; 11/9/2016) | @PwC_Tax

Mr Trump’s Tax Policies — what do they mean? (11/9/2016) | Grant Wardell-Johnson (@kpmgaustralia) @KPMG_US

Ryan and Trump Agree on Tax Cuts (Video; 9/19/2016) | @bpolitics (@bhgreeley)


US Policy Changes Vol.5 (Energy Vol.1)

Here are articles on energy. Excerpts are on our own.

Trump presidency bullish long term for oil and gas, energy CEO says (w Video; 11/10/2016) | @MFoxCNBC (@johnwschoen)
… “We haven’t seen a decline in drilling in this country because of EPA regulations. We’ve seen a decline in drilling in this country because of two years of low prices,” @WarwickEnergy said. …

Trump Can’t Stop the Energy Revolution (11/9/2016) | @chrismbryant @Bfly
see an interactive graph ofelectricity generation by fuel

@CVEPLLC’s Book (@CSISEnergy) talks energy winners and losers, future of power plan (w Video & Transcript; 11/10/2016) | @MonicaTrauzzi ‏@EENewsUpdates
… the fossil energy value chain is the clear winner, from extraction to the midstream especially, but also downstream processing …
… Seas will rise no matter who’s in the White House if they’re rising for scientific reasons, and that discussion doesn’t go away just because a regulatory agenda shifts. On the other hand, the conservative climate movement, which has reared its head a couple of different times, hasn’t been incredibly successful because it needs a catalyst. …
… MSHA inspections interrupting profitable, continuous operation in underground mines — that could change. Guidance — conductivity guidance, and for that matter the stream protection rule, probably …

Trump choosing leaders to roll back environmental, energy policies: Fracking billionaire Howard Hamm, venture capitalist Robert Grady tipped for key energy file (11/14/2016) | @AP @CBCBusiness
…considering an oil billionaire and a North Dakota lawmaker for top posts…
Trump also is targeting recent Obama administration efforts to reduce air and water pollution that have been opposed by Republicans and industries that profit from the extraction and burning of fossil fuels, including a rule to protect small streams and wetlands and ozone regulations designed to cut down on smog.
Harold Hamm… Kevin Cramer… Robert Grady…

Where Donald Trump Will Make An Immediate Impact On The Energy Sector (11/14/2016) | @RRapier @Forbes
…there is one area where Trump is likely to have an immediate impact. That is in the midstream oil and gas business. Midstream businesses are those that move oil and gas from the site of production to processing plants, storage facilities, and end customers. Midstream consists largely of the oil and gas pipelines that crisscross underneath North America.
…Energy Transfer Partners…

What a Trump Presidency Might Mean for Your Electric Bill (11/15/2016) | @BobStump @NRO
…To vastly simplify: Solar power has decreased in price and, in some marketplaces, has proven cheaper than fossil fuels. … Renewable-energy tax breaks, the source of relatively broad bipartisan support, will likely survive until the date of their scheduled phase-out, in 2020. …
Trump has emphasized the pressing need for infrastructure investments, and modernizing the nation’s power grid to accommodate electricity generated at homes and businesses (“distributed energy”)… the Trump administration should refrain from the federal regulatory micromanagement that might hinder them.
Repeal can occur through a voluntary remand to the D.C. Circuit Court or the issuance of new rules. …would involve congressional action precluding the regulation of CO2 via the Clean Air Act by redefining what constitutes a pollutant.
… Altering power plants’ new-source pollution rules is a likely quiver in President Trump’s arsenal of options for boosting coal. …

Keep Arctic Alaska In Play For America’s Economic, Energy Security (11/11/2016) | @Mark_J_Perry @AEI ‏@IBDinvestors
… Through an otherwise obscure federal offshore leasing program, which is reviewed every five years by the U.S. Interior Department, the Obama Administration may slam the door shut on opportunities to produce American energy in Alaska’s offshore waters. …
The Alaskan Beaufort and Chukchi seas are estimated to hold nearly 24 billion — yes, billion — barrels of oil and more than 104 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. That’s enough to meet oil demand for a state like California for 38 years and natural gas demand for 45 years. …
… Alaskan offshore energy resources would generate $193 billion in federal government revenues over a 50-year period and would support nearly 55,000 jobs nationwide. The leases themselves will generate $97 billion in federal revenue…

Trump’s New Old Energy Order (11/9/2016) | @liamdenning (@markgongloff) @Bfly
Oil and gas
…could actually be bearish for oil prices.
…Exploration and production companies… Pipeline companies… Refiners…
…may not necessarily fill Riyadh with unalloyed confidence. …
… Rolling back sanctions could potentially reopen Russia to Exxon…
Utilities
…that could support the sector as investors stick with high dividend payers. …
… Any policy restraining those new entrants and prolonging the life of existing power plants will boost utilities’ bottom lines.
Renewables and … coal
…@TeslaMotors…@solarcity…

The Voters Who Gave Trump the White House (11/9/2016) | @AP @bpolitics (@DavidIngold,@BlackiLi,@mhkeller,@_jsdiamond,@hannah_recht,@aubergene)

What Just Happened in Solar Is a Bigger Deal Than Oil Exports-The impact: $73 billion in new investment in the U.S (12/17/2016) | @tsrandall @BloombergNRG

Trump Can’t Make Coal And Fracking Great Again (5/28/2016) | @liamdenning (@markgongloff) @Bfly

Clinton, Trump Both Support Nuclear Energy (10/19/2016) | @NEI

What a Trump presidency means for U.S. and global climate policy (11/9/2016) | @natehultman @BrookingsInst


US Policy Changes Vol.4 (Deregulation Vol.1)

Here are articles on deregulation. Excerpts are on our own.

The Cost of New Banking Regulation: $70.2 Billion (7/30/2014) | @SaabiraC @WSJ
New regulation stemming from the financial crisis has cost the six largest U.S. banks $70.2 billion as of the end of last year, according to a new study.
Between the end of last year and the end of 2007, regulatory costs rose by more than 100% –or $35.5 billion– for ‏@BankofAmerica, @Citi, @GoldmanSachs, ‏@jpmorgan @Chase, ‏@MorganStanley and ‏@WellsFargo, according to data from policy-analysis firm Federal Financial Analytics Inc (@KarenPetrou).
The costs come from a mix of requirements that are specific to these banks, such particular capital surcharges, and those that apply to banks with assets over $50 billion…
…@FDICgov… @USOCC… and @federalreserve. Of the $35.5 billion in added costs… $29.07 billion came from capital costs, $2.06 billion from interchange fee restrictions, $3.95 billion from FDIC premiums and $407.1 million from supervisory assessments…
…data from @SPGlobal suggesting that pre-tax earnings would drop by between $22 billion and $34 billion at these eight banks each year due to regulations tied to the Dodd-Frank act…

How can Trump support deregulation and Glass-Steagall? (8/9/2016) | Peter J. Wallison @AEI ‏@AmerBanker
… The best interpretation is that it’s an awkward outreach to the disappointed “progressive” supporters of Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. The worst is that it calls into question whether Donald Trump really supports financial deregulation.
… Glass-Steagall was modified in 1999—permitting bank holding companies (but not banks themselves) to engage in the securities business…
… It was far less expensive for a firm in need of credit to sell bonds, notes or commercial paper to investors than negotiate complex financing arrangements with a bank.
… These competitive issues had become obvious by 1999, providing the foundation for the repeal of the Glass-Steagall language that prohibited affiliations between banks and securities firms. …
… One can’t believe in the reinstatement of Glass-Steagall and still believe in the repeal or significant modification of Dodd-Frank. It’s like saying free markets work, but price controls can help.

Trump Advisers Back Deregulation, Privatised Social Security (11/12/2016) | @JeffHorwitz (@marcygordon) @AP @nytimes
…Michael Korbey… acknowledged that some of the changes his group backed would hurt retirees… in 1996. A decade later… an advocate for…
… While there are some true Washington outsiders on the team — such as @DanRDimicco…
@BillWalton, one of the two people overseeing the economic transition effort, is the former chief executive for Allied Capital… both a trustee for the @Heritage and a senior fellow at…@DiscoveryCSC…
David Malpass… “Don’t Panic About the Credit Market.”
In…”Chris Dodd’s Big, Misguided Bill,” Malpass… should “streamline and concentrate” existing consumer protection regulators, a step that he said “would result in a reduction of government jobs.”
…Paul Atkins… We all know that overregulation can “kill the goose that laid the golden egg,”…

@IMF Working Paper: Assessing the Cost of Financial Regulation (PDF; Sep 2012) | Douglas Elliott, Suzanne Salloy and André Oliveira Santos
p15-18
– Higher capital requirements.
…once Basel III is implemented. The result is to increase costs substantially for U.S. banks across the board. On the other hand, non-banks…
– Higher liquidity requirements.
Basel III rules…would also force U.S. banks to shift their asset-liability management to favor shorter asset maturities and longer liability maturities. …
… This impact is likely to be somewhat less, however, for the commercial banking portion of the business, which can access a substantial amount of stable deposits that are favored by the liquidity rules. … Universal banks would fall in between, given their split of business between commercial and investment banking. …
– Tightening of derivatives regulations.
The Dodd-Frank Act requires regulators to take a series of actions to push business away from customized derivatives towards exchange-traded derivatives and away from bilateral counterparty arrangements and into central clearinghouses. … Customized derivatives will carry higher capital charges for banks and bank affiliates and collateral will often be required from counterparties where it was not needed before. … Banks are likely to recoup some of their losses from additional business conducted with these entities, however. Insurers and non-bank financials will suffer some of the same losses as the banks, to an extent sufficient to reduce their net benefit…
– Accounting changes.
Changes in the Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) used for U.S. accounting will almost invariably make U.S. financial institutions look less attractive and require more capital. … The most painful changes are probably those that make it considerably harder to move transactions off-balance sheet, inspired in part by the problems created by Structured Investment Vehicles (SIVs)… …with somewhat less effect on insurers and somewhat more on other non-bank financials, which generally relied much more on wholesale funding from vehicles like SIVs. …
– Changes to securitization regulations.
…aimed at increasing transparency and trying to incentivize the firms that put together the securitizations to care about the quality of their securitizations. This meshes with reforms in other areas such as regulation of the rating agencies and increases in capital standards for securitizations under Basel III. …restoration of faith in the securitization market could ultimately reduce costs for banks by allowing them to resume the more active use of those markets. Non-bank financial institutions are shown as more affected, since some of them have made very heavy use of securitizations in the past.
– Enhanced consumer protection regulations.
Commercial banks in the United States are likely to be considerably affected over time by the newly established @CFPB. … The industry clearly views the CFPB as a major threat to profitability… Investment banks should be less affected since they sell fewer retail products, most of which would remain under @SEC_News supervision anyway. Many non-bank financial institutions…for the first time…the largest impact.
– Expansion of the regulatory perimeter.
…a question of which firms should be heavily regulated and which can be left outside the regulatory perimeter and subjected to a lesser degree of control. …banks and insurers need to be within the perimeter. Investment banks were not included, but largely now are, as a result of the crisis. The Dodd-Frank Act did not do much directly about bringing “shadow banking” within the perimeter, but the Financial Stability Oversight Council has considerable power in this area and the CFPB does as well in areas that touch on consumer protection…
– Higher taxes or fees facing financial institutions.
Deposit insurance fees…increased considerably in response to losses at ‏@FDICgov as a result of the financial crisis. … Finally, the U.S. Administration has proposed a Financial Crisis Responsibility Fee that was originally pegged at about US$10 billion a year and was subsequently reduced to about US$3 billion a year… The Dodd-Frank Act, complemented by international efforts coordinated through @FinStbBoard, is clearly intended to make it considerably easier to deal with large, troubled financial institutions and to reduce the chance that government support would be provided to aid bondholders and counterparties. …
– Tougher regulation of credit rating agencies.
The Dodd-Frank Act encourages greater SEC oversight of the rating agencies, requires more transparency, and raises their legal liabilities. …unbiased and accurate ratings.
– Structural changes to banks and activity limits.
Relatively little structural change is being required by Dodd-Frank, with the exception of the so-called Volcker Rule to eliminate proprietary trading and related activities and through some changes in where derivatives business can be housed within a banking group. …
– Changes in regulation of compensation and governance.
relatively minor… …the most effect, such as in forcing better management of compensation arrangements…approaches that discourage unreasonable risk-taking and by helping hold down overall employee compensation. …

Extending Deregulation: Make the U.S. Economy (PDF; 2008,2016) | Robert W. Crandall @BrookingsEcon


US Policy Changes Vol.3 (Immigration Vol.1)

Here are articles on immigration. Excerpts are on our own.

THE EFFECTS OF IMMIGRATION ON THE UNITED STATES’ ECONOMY (6/27/2016) | @Wharton Budget Model
Key Points
…most academic research finds little long run effect on Americans’ wages.
…immigration leads to more innovation, a better educated workforce…and higher overall economic productivity.
Immigration also has a net positive effect on combined federal, state, and local budgets. But not all taxpayers benefit equally. … (e.g. California v. New Jersey)
Conclusion
Economists generally agree that the effects of immigration on the U.S. economy are broadly positive. …immigration may actually have significant long-term benefits for the native-born, pushing them into higher-paying occupations and raising the overall pace of innovation and productivity growth. …a net positive return on the investment over the long term.

Examining U.S. Immigration’s Economic Impact (10/20/2016) | @HilaryKTuttle @RiskMgmtMonitor
see Immigration’s Long-Term Impacts on Overall Wages and Employment of Native-Born U.S. Workers Very Small, Although Low-Skilled Workers May Be Affected, New Report Finds; Impacts on Economic Growth Positive, While Effects on Government Budgets Mixed (9/21/2016) | @theNASEM
Some of the study’s key findings and conclusions include:
… There is little evidence that immigration significantly affects the overall employment levels of native-born workers.
…there may be positive wage effects for some subgroups of native-born workers, and other benefits to the economy more broadly.
Immigration has an overall positive impact on long-run economic growth in the U.S.
… However, as adults, the children of immigrants (the second generation) are among the strongest economic and fiscal contributors in the U.S. population, contributing more in taxes than either their parents or the rest of the native-born population.
Over the long term, the impacts of immigrants on government budgets are generally positive at the federal level but remain negative at the state and local level — but…

How U.S. Immigration Policy Has Changed Since 9/11:Terrorism, the refugee crisis and Donald Trump have all shaped today’s immigration debate. (9/9/2016) | @willafrej @HuffingtonPost
… Formed in November 2002 with the passing of the Homeland Security Act… The three main bodies created within the DHS consist of Customs and Border Protection (CBP), Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS). …
… “The threat to the U.S. homeland from refugees has been relatively low,” @SethGJones, director of the International Security and Defense Policy Center at ‏@RANDCorporation, testified to Congress in 2015. …
… “In many ways, this has nothing to do with 9/11.” Yet if Trump were to reduce legal immigration into the U.S., as he’s implied with his proposed Muslim ban, it would represent “the first time in recent history that any political party has called for any such reduction,” according to Chishti. …

The Immigration Act of 1990: Unfinished Business a Quarter-Century Later (w PDF; Jul 2016) | Muzaffar Chishti & @syaleloehr @MigrationPolicy
PDF
p3
A. Immigrant Visa Changes
… The 1990 law carved the 140,000 employment-based (EB) immigrant visas into five categories…
The 1990 Act also called for a three-year pilot program under which the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) was to decide whether labor shortages or surpluses existed in up to ten occupational classifications. …
p4
… Beginning on October 1, 1994, the law provided for a new stream of immigrants, known as “diversity” immigrants.
B. Nonimmigrant Visa Changes
1. Visa Waiver Pilot Program
IRCA authorized a three-year nonimmigrant visa waiver pilot program for business visitors and tourists from designated countries. …
p5
Currently, 38 countries participate in the Visa Waiver Program (see Table 1). More than 21 million people entered the United States in FY 2014 on a visa waiver…
2. H Visas for Temporary Workers
Congress originally enacted an H nonimmigrant visa category for temporary workers in 1952. IRCA subdivided the category:
H-1 visas were for individuals of “distinguished merit and ability.” …
H-2A visas were for temporary workers coming to perform agricultural labor or services. …
p11
A. Shifts in Legal Immigration Patterns
Table 3. Top Ten Countries of Origin for New Legal Permanent Residents, 1990 and 2014
p12
B. H-1B Temporary Professional Workers
The H-1B Visa Reform Act of 2004, enacted as part of a consolidated appropriations bill, returned to the original cap of 65,000, but added a separate annual cap of 20,000 for H-1B applicants with advanced U.S. degrees. …
… In FY 2016, USCIS received almost 233,000 H-1B petitions during the same period. That meant that employers had only about a 25 percent chance of getting an H-1B petition accepted for adjudication. …
… These reports have found that of the 20 companies that received the most H-1B visas in 2014, for example, 13 were global outsourcing firms. The top 20 companies received about 40 percent of the visas, while more than 10,000 other firms received far fewer visas.
p13
C. EB-5: The Rise of Immigrant Investors
… In FY 2014, the EB-5 category reached its annual cap of approximately 10,000 for the first time. USCIS currently has a backlog of more than 20,000 EB-5 petitions awaiting adjudication.
p15
… The critical lesson from the 1990 Act and from both the important milestone immigration laws that preceded it — the Immigration Act of 1965 and IRCA in 1986 — is that they were achieved in a culture of greater political trust and bipartisanship than exists today, even though there were strong policy disagreements and divided government.

Through the Prism of National Security: Major Immigration Policy and Program Changes in the Decade since 9/11 (w PDF; Aug 2011) | Michelle Mittelstadt, Burke Speaker, Doris Meissner & Muzaffar Chishti @MigrationPolicy

What it will take for President Trump to deport millions and build the wall (w Videos; 11/9/2016) | @chicoharlan,@JerryMarkon @Wonkblog
…John Sandweg, a former acting director of @ICEgov, a part of @DHSgov… Trump has tremendous flexibility to reverse course on all those policies.”
… The estimated 11 million people living in the United States without documentation are here either because they entered the country illegally or overstayed their visas. … Trump has said they have only one way to gain legal status: leave and return with a visa, something that could require years of waiting.
Trump initially indicated that any undocumented immigrant was vulnerable to deportation and then said that he would first target those with criminal records. … But Trump would dramatically expand the pace. …
“The president can do a lot simply by changing the imperatives of the bureaucracy,” said @wstock215, president of @AILANational. …most of the 11 million [undocumented] immigrants have been here for well more than 5 years. …
Trump has said he wants to triple the number of @ICEgov agents. …
… also pledged to clamp down on so-called sanctuary cities, places in which local authorities decide not to proactively ask immigrants for paperwork, even if they believe they’re undocumented. …
But DACA is not a law; it was not even created by an executive order. It was established by a policy memo sent out by former homeland security secretary Janet Napolitano. …

The Good, Bad And Plausible Points Of Trump’s Immigration Plan (9/1/2016) | @ASemotiuk @forbes

What Trump’s Presidency Means For Illegal Immigrants And Immigration To The U.S. (11/10/2016) | @ASemotiuk @forbes

The History of Immigration Policies in the U.S. | @NETWORKLobby

us-policychanges-immigration


US Policy Changes Vol.2 (Employment/Economy Vol.1)

Here are two articles on employment. Excerpts are on our own.

Two top economists spar on Obama’s jobs record (5/12/2016) | @steveliesman @CNBC
…two former presidential economic advisors — one Democrat, one Republican — to answer a simple question, “Is the jobs market back? …‏

@Alan_Krueger (@princetonecon): … By most measures — including the unemployment rate, average work week, real average hourly earnings — the labor market is performing about where it was during the last recovery. The unemployment rate is slightly below where it was in the average month in the last business cycle expansion (2001-07). … The 2.5 percent rise in nominal hourly wages in the last year suggests that the labor market is getting close to full employment.
… but the reason for at least half of the decline is simply demographics and more baby boomers reaching retirement age. In addition, the labor force participation rate fell in the last recovery, so forces were putting downward pressure on labor force participation before the Great Recession. And the labor force participation rate and employment-to-population rate of men were both on a downward trajectory since the early 1950s…
Problems of sluggish median wage growth and rising inequality, which have plagued the job market since the early 1980s…
… the passage of Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform Act and more vigilant financial regulatory enforcement is likely to reduce the odds of another financial crisis in the near term.

Ed Lazear (@StanfordBiz):… although we have made significant progress, the labor market has not yet recovered.
… By any measure, the labor market is in much better shape than it was six years ago. …
… Not only is 5 percent equal to the average during the 2000-07 period, but it is also close to what might be the typical economist’s estimate of the unemployment rate at full potential output. …
… Most labor economists prefer it to all other indicators because it cuts through the issue of discouraged workers and those who are slow to enter the labor force. The employment rate peaked at almost 63.5 percent in late 2006 and early 2007. It fell to a low of 58.2 percent in mid-2011 and is now back up to about 60 percent. Part of the difference between the previous peak and the current rate can be explained by demographics. …
… as older workers retire, the demand for the prime-age workers’ labor rises, which should induce more of them to work. The opposite has occurred for prime-age workers. Their employment rates are still substantially below the prerecession peak and even the early 2000s recession trough. …
… job creation… slightly over 200,000 per month… too fast to be consistent with full recovery. When we are in recovery equilibrium, job growth should just keep up with population growth. To keep pace with a growing population, about 140,000 per month are required. …we are still gaining jobs on net, which means we are still recovering, not fully recovered. … When the labor market is improving rather than stable, it is not fully back to normal.
… The number of hires far outstrips net job creation because hires and separations tend to move together. … late 2006… 4 percent per month (amazingly high). Today, that rate is 3.7 percent. But even this may overstate the recovery because the hiring rate looks at hires relative to those employed, not relative to the working age population. If labor-force participation and employment are too low for some reason, the hiring rate might look good…
…the number of hires relative to the working-age population. It peaked at 2.4 percent in late 2006 and now stands at 2.1 percent. …
That wages have not grown is no surprise. A necessary condition for wage growth in the U.S. has been productivity growth. …the weak recovery is best explained by low investment. … Increased taxes on capital, additional regulation, government suits and fines against companies especially in the financial sector have not encouraged capital formation. … I am not confident that Dodd-Frank has done much to make the economy more secure. Instead, I believe it treated the symptom rather than the cause.

Ed Lazear: This is the real unemployment rate (11/6/2015) | @Wonkblog
…wages haven’t been growing. The general sense is that the labor market is far from tight, and economic growth is weak. …
The other measure, which is generally preferred by many who study labor markets, is the employment rate, which is defined as the proportion of the working-age population (that is, 16 and above) that has a job. …
… An older population means that more people are retired, and more retired people yields a lower employment rate because a smaller fraction of the population is typical working age. …
To determine whether the measured unemployment or measured employment rate is too low… “population hiring rate,”…the ratio of monthly hires… to the population over 16 years of age. …
…demographics play a role in legitimately reducing the proportion of the population that would be expected to work. …
Using models based on pre-recovery data, it is possible to estimate what unemployment and employment rates would be… the official unemployment rate was 5.1 percent. But…the unemployment rate should be thought of as 6.3 percent. …
…the peak pre-recession employment rate was 63.4 percent. Correcting for hiring and demographics makes September’s rate of 59.2 equivalent to a pre-2009 rate of 61.4 percent… This amounts to about 4.8 million jobs. …
…conditions that are consistent with an unemployment well above 6 percent…


US Policy Changes Vol.1 (Healthcare Vol.1)

Here are three articles on healthcare. The election of Donald J. Trump and the re-election of a Republican-controlled House and Senate will usher in big #policychanges. Excerpts are on our own.

Is Obamacare failing? (8/24/2016) | @sarahkliff @voxdotcom‏
… @Penn’s Zeke Emanuel pegged it at 2025. @MIT’s Jonathan Gruber estimated 2050. … Major health insurers @Aetna and @UnitedHealthGrp have soured on the law, sharply reducing participation in the marketplaces. Obamacare’s insurance markets have, in turn, become increasingly less competitive. The health research firm @avalerehealth estimates that 36 percent of the marketplaces’ rating regions will only have a single health plan. … “The exchange population — 85 percent of which qualifies for financial assistance — looks a lot like the Medicaid population,” says Michael Adelberg… “And with it, we’re seeing the start of the ‘Medicaid-ization’ of exchange plans: narrow networks with no frills.” …
The uninsured rate has consistently declined since the health law’s insurance expansion launched in 2014. The most recent @Gallup data shows that 11 percent of Americans currently lack health insurance — the lowest rate the group has ever recorded. … @CDCgov reported that only 9.1 percent of Americans lacked insurance in 2015. … oc-uninsured
“It’s important to step back and think about what would be happening right now if there was no Affordable Care Act,” says @nicholas_bagley, an assistant professor at @UMichLaw… “Premiums would be much higher now than they are under any kind of reasonable estimate.”
…the law is helping these people gain access to medical services that were previously out of reach… Even when there are large premium spikes, more than 80 percent of marketplace enrollees have subsidies that ensure their monthly fees remain affordable. … consumers would shop for coverage the “same way you’d shop for a plane ticket on Kayak or a TV on Amazon. …
…five states — Alaska, Alabama, North Carolina, Oklahoma, and Wyoming — that only have one insurance plan signed up to sell in 2017. … currently one county in Arizona that has no health plans signed up to sell. …individual mandate, which they found to be too weak and poorly enforced, leading to lower-than-expected enrollment among healthy, young adults. …right now they’re about 28 percent of the marketplace population.
…Uwe Reinhardt at @Princeton … points out that it’s not the case that partnerships with private insurers can’t work to expand coverage. There are other countries like Germany and Switzerland that have, for decades now, achieved universal coverage working with private plans. … They mandated the benefits each insurer covers and how much each medical service costs. They also set up much stronger laws to force consumers to buy coverage.
… Medicaid… usually pays low reimbursement rates to hospitals and providers, so it doesn’t get big brand-name facilities into its networks. In 2011, one-third of doctors nationwide said they didn’t accept Medicaid patients. … The vast majority of Obamacare’s enrollees are low-income: 81 percent earn less than 250 percent of the poverty line ($29,000 for an individual or about $60,000 for a family of four). …
… @Centene… came into Obamacare knowing how to target those people, as @stltoday reporter @samanthann …narrowly focusing on low-income individuals who have lost their Medicaid eligibility and need to find a private health insurance plan.
… The average employer-sponsored plan for a family of four cost $17,545 last year. Why would companies keep paying for coverage when they could pay a relatively small penalty ($2,000) to shift workers to the public marketplace? … 12.7 million enrollees this year — 8.3 million less than @USCBO projected in 2015. … Between 2015 and 2016, only one-third of marketplace enrollees kept the same plan. …

This Princeton health economist thinks Obamacare’s marketplaces are doomed (8/25/2016) | @sarahkliff @voxdotcom
UR: … We’ve had two actual death spirals: in New Jersey and in New York. New Jersey passed a law that had community rating but no mandate, so that market shrank quickly and premiums were off the wall. You look at New York and the same thing happened; they had premiums above $6,000 per month. The death spiral killed those markets. What we do have in the Affordable Care Act is the mandate, so it will be a slower process. …
… litigation over the commerce clause …

Trump and the GOP can absolutely repeal Obamacare — and 22 million people would lose health insurance (11/9/2016) | @sarahkliff @voxdotcom
… One party rule… “They have a death blow to the Obamacare health coverage expansion,” says @HealthStewBlog, a @HarvardChanSPH professor… Republicans could use the reconciliation process to take apart key Obamacare pillars, requiring a simple majority rather than the 60 votes needed to overcome a filibuster. … But Senate rules also allow bills to pass with a simple majority if they only relate to spending, a process known as reconciliation. …
… HR 3762… includes taxes on health insurers, hospitals, and medical device manufacturers and a Medicare payroll tax of 0.9 percent that the law levied on Americans who earn more than $200,000 (or $250,000 for a married couple). … The repeal plan would reduce the deficit by between $281 billion and $193 billion… House Republicans passed HR 3762 on October 23, 2015, and the Senate followed on December 3, 2015. President Obama vetoed the bill…
House Republicans did publish a document outlining their Obamacare replacement plan this summer, called “A Better Way.” …block-granting Medicaid and allowing insurance sales across state lines. … the Senate hasn’t weighed in.” …


US Presidential Election 2016 Vol.8 (Trump/Pence & Clinton/Kaine speeches after the election)

Here are articles on speeches after the 2016 election. Excerpts of the speeches are on our own.

Here’s The Transcript Of Mike Pence’s Election Night Speech | @ayetalian @bustle
… America has elected a new president and it’s almost hard for me to express the honor that I and my family feel that we will have the privilege to serve as the Vice President of the United States. … And I’m mostly grateful to the president elect whose leadership and vision will make America great again. …
MIKE PENCE INTRODUCES DONALD TRUMP FOR VICTORY SPEECH – DONALD TRUMP WINS US Election (11/08/16) | @YouTube

Donald Trump wins 2016 presidential election: victory speech, full transcript (w Video) | @t_golshan @voxdotcom
… I’ve just received a call from Secretary Clinton. She congratulated us. It’s about us. On our victory, and I congratulated her and her family on a very, very hard-fought campaign. I mean, she fought very hard. Hillary has worked very long and very hard over a long period of time, and we owe her a major debt of gratitude for her service to our country. I mean that very sincerely. Now it is time for America to bind the wounds of division, have to get together. … I pledge to every citizen of our land that I will be president for all of Americans, and this is so important to me. For those who have chosen not to support me in the past, of which there were a few people, I’m reaching out to you for your guidance and your help so that we can work together and unify our great country. As I’ve said from the beginning, ours was not a campaign but rather an incredible and great movement, made up of millions of hard-working men and women who love their country and want a better, brighter future for themselves and for their family. It is a movement comprised of Americans from all races, religions, backgrounds, and beliefs, who want and expect our government to serve the people, and serve the people it will. … Every single American will have the opportunity to realize his or her fullest potential. The forgotten men and women of our country will be forgotten no longer. We are going to fix our inner cities and rebuild our highways, bridges, tunnels, airports, schools, hospitals. … We have a great economic plan. We will double our growth and have the strongest economy anywhere in the world. … I want to tell the world community that while we will always put America’s interests first, we will deal fairly with everyone, with everyone. All people and all other nations. We will seek common ground, not hostility; partnership, not conflict. … Great brothers, sisters, great, unbelievable parents. To Melania and Don and Ivanka and Eric and Tiffany and Barron, I love you and I thank you, and especially for putting up with all of those hours. … And Kellyanne and Chris and Rudy and Steve and David. We have got tremendously talented people up here, and I want to tell you it’s been very, very special. I want to give a very special thanks to our former mayor, Rudy Giuliani. He’s unbelievable. … Gov. Chris Christie, folks, was unbelievable. Thank you, Chris. The first man, first senator, first major, major politician — let me tell you, he is highly respected in Washington because he is as smart as you get. Sen. Jeff Sessions. Where is Jeff? A great man. … I got to know him as a competitor because he was one of the folks that was negotiating to go against those Democrats, Dr. Ben Carson. … By the way, Mike Huckabee is here someplace, and he is fantastic. Mike and his familiar bring Sarah, thank you very much. Gen. Mike Flynn. Where is Mike? And Gen. Kellogg. … We have 22 Congressional Medal of Honor people. … I said, they can’t call you a superstar, Reince, unless we win it. Like Secretariat. … We’re going to get to work immediately for the American people, and we’re going to be doing a job that hopefully you will be so proud of your president. You will be so proud. Again, it’s my honor. It’s an amazing evening. It’s been an amazing two-year period, and I love this country. … Thank you very much. Thank you to Mike Pence.

Read Hillary Clinton’s Concession Speech for the 2016 Presidential Election (w Video) | @katiemacreilly @TIME
Kaine: … I’m proud of Hillary Clinton because she has been and is a great history maker in every thing that she has done as a civil rights lawyer and first lady of Arkansas and first lady of this country and senator and secretary of state. … I’m proud of Hillary Clinton because in the words of Langston Hughes, she’s “held fast to dreams.” She was inspired at a young age to an epiphany that if families and children do well, that’s the best barometer of whether society does well. In everything she’s done, she’s focused on that. … I’m excited and proud of Hillary because she has built such a wonderful team. … There’s a beautiful and kind of comical parable in the New Testament about a vineyard owner who hires people to work and says I’m going to pay you this for a full day. … The team that she has assembled over the years of people that are so deeply loyal to her because she’s so deeply loyal to them is inspiring. But I’ve seen that same degree of loyalty and compassion and sensitivity extended to the most recent folks who have joined the team, the folks who came to the vineyard with just one hour to go. Her loyalty and compassion of Hillary and Bill to people, if you’re with you you’re with you. And that is just something so remarkable. … Nobody — nobody had to wonder about Hillary Clinton, whether she would accept an outcome of an election in our beautiful democracy. … She knows our country for what it is. She knows the system that we have and its warts and blemishes. She’s deeply in love with it and accepts it. She’s been in battles before where if it didn’t go her way she accepted it, but then woke up the next day and battled again for the dreams that she’s held fast to. … I’ll just say this. Hillary and I know well the wisdom and the words of William Faulkner. He said, “They kilt us but they ain’t whupped us yet.” … t is so comforting even at a tough time to know that Hillary Clinton is somebody until her very last breath is going to be battling for the values that make this nation great and the values that we care so deeply about. …

CLINTON: … Last night, I congratulated Donald Trump and offered to work with him on behalf of our country. I hope that he will be a successful president for all Americans. … But I feel pride and gratitude for this wonderful campaign that we built together, this vast, diverse, creative, unruly, energized campaign. You represent the best of America and being your candidate has been one of the greatest honors of my life. … Our campaign was never about one person or even one election, it was about the country we love and about building an America that’s hopeful, inclusive and big-hearted. … But I still believe in America and I always will. And if you do, then we must accept this result and then look to the future. … We owe him an open mind and the chance to lead. Our constitutional democracy enshrines the peaceful transfer of power and we don’t just respect that, we cherish it. It also enshrines other things; the rule of law, the principle that we are all equal in rights and dignity, freedom of worship and expression. … our constitutional democracy demands our participation, not just every four years but all the time. So let’s do all we can to keep advancing the causes and values we all hold dear; making our economy work for everyone not just those at the top, protecting our country and protecting our planet and breaking down all the barriers that hold any American back from achieving their dreams. … I have, as Tim said, spent my entire adult life fighting for what I believe in. I’ve had successes and I’ve had setbacks. Sometimes, really painful ones. … Finally, I am so grateful for our country and for all it has given to me. I count my blessings every single day that I am an American. And I still believe as deeply as I ever have that if we stand together and work together with respect for our differences, strength in our convictions and love for this nation, our best days are still ahead of us. … Because, you know — you know, I believe we are stronger together and we will go forward together. And you should never, ever regret fighting for that. You know, scripture tells us, “Let us not grow weary in doing good, for in due season, we shall reap if we do not lose heart.” …

PRESIDENT OBAMA MAKES HIS FIRST SPEECH AFTER THE 2016 ELECTION: “Sometimes you lose an argument. Sometimes you lose an election.” (w Video) | @juliekosin @harpersbazaarus


US Presidential Election 2016 Vol.7 (polls up to early morning 11/7)

One day left. Here are articles mainly on polls up to early morning 11/7 EST.

How Much Did Comey Hurt Clinton’s Chances?: And is it too late for his second letter to help her? (11/6) | @NateSilver538 @FiveThirtyEight

Election Update: Don’t Ignore The Polls — Clinton Leads, But It’s A Close Race (11/6) | @NateSilver538 @FiveThirtyEight

Elections Podcast Countdown: House And Senate Preview (11/6) | @jodyavirgan,@redistrict,@forecasterenten @FiveThirtyEight

@foxnewspoll: Clinton ahead of Trump by two points (11/5) | @danablanton_nyc

Election Update: The Campaign Is Almost Over, And Here’s Where We Stand (11/5) | @NateSilver538 @FiveThirtyEight

Battle for White House | @RealClearNews

No Toss Up States | @RealClearNews

Who will win the presidency? | @FiveThirtyEight

2016 Eletion Forecast Update – President | @FiveThirtyEight

POLL UPDATE: 2016 General Election – Clinton 49%, Trump 46% (UPI/CVOTER 10/30-11/5) | @pollsterpolls

@PollHeadlines (11/6)

2016 October New Hampshire Poll of Likely Voters (10/26; w PDFs) | @UMassPoll

Perceptions of Clinton’s Honesty Unchanged After FBI Letter (11/4) | @Frank_Newport, Michael Smith @GallupNews

Most Still Say Clinton Broke The Law (11/4) | @Rasmussen_Poll

Is 99% a reasonable probability? (11/6) | @SamWangPhD @Princeton
ev_map-samwangphd

Senate No Toss Ups 2016 – RACE CHANGES | @RealClearNews

Rubio Up In Florida Senate Race, GOP Holding Ohio, Dem Edge In North Carolina And PA Too Close To Call, @QuinnipiacPoll Finds (11/3)

The final stretch: Spending in key Senate races tops $800 million (11/4) | Josh Stewart @SunFoundation

U.S. Voters Prefer GOP Congress if Clinton Is Elected (11/4) | Jeffrey M. Jones ‏@GallupNews

Battle for the House 2016 | @RealClearNews

2016 Governor Races | @RealClearNews

Presidential, governor’s races too close to call in N.C., voters worried about decisions next president will make: The survey conducted Oct. 23-27 is the final survey by @elonpoll before Election Day on Nov. 8. (11/1)

[National] 2016 Brought Out Worst in People: Seven percent report ending friendship over presidential race (w PDF; 9/28) | @MonmouthPoll

Which Issues Are the Most Critical for Trump, Clinton? (11/4) | Dan Witters, @Frank_Newport, ‏@LydiaSaad1 ‏@GallupNews

Demographic and Economic Profiles of Hispanics by State and County, 2014 – Latinos as percent of population, by state, 2014 | @PewHispanic

3. Where Hispanic population growth is driving general population growth (9/8) | @ReneeAStepler,@mhugolopez @PewHispanic

Obamacare Has Increased Insurance Coverage Everywhere (9/22) | @BurritoBracket,‏@bencasselman @FiveThirtyEight

2016 Election [Archives: reports, publications, et al.] | ‏@pewresearch

2. Factors underlying voter preferences, positive and negative voting (10/27) | ‏@pewresearch

3. Views of candidate ‘insults,’ criticism and political divisions (10/27) | ‏@pewresearch

4. How voters view Clinton and Trump’s respect for men and women, racial and religious groups (10/27) | ‏@pewresearch

6. Views of domestic issues: race, immigration, health care, abortion, Supreme Court (10/27) | ‏@pewresearch

7. Opinions on U.S. international involvement, free trade, ISIS and Syria, Russia and China (10/27) | ‏@pewresearch

The Politics of Climate (10/4) | @surveyfunk & Brian Kennedy ‏@pewinternet
Polarized views about climate issues stretch from the causes and cures for climate change to trust in climate scientists and their research. But most Americans support a role for scientists in climate policy, and there is bipartisan support for expanding solar, wind energy

A gender gap in views of Hillary Clinton, even among her supporters (11/5) | SAMANTHA SMITH ‏@pewresearch

Religion And Education Explain The White Vote (9/23) | @milobela @FiveThirtEight

How religious is your state? (2/29) | @MikeLipka,@benjiwo @PewReligion

U.S. religious groups and their political leanings (2/23) | @MikeLipka @PewReligion

The most and least educated U.S. religious groups (11/4) | @CaryleM ‏@FactTank

1. Regular local voting, community attachment strongly linked to news habits (11/3) | MICHAEL BARTHEL, JESSE HOLCOMB, JESSICA MAHONE & AMY MITCHELL @pewjournalism

Clinton And Trump Are Both Promising An Extreme Supreme Court (8/1) | @ollie @FiveThirtyEight

With just days to go, Triumph has some shocking new revelations on Donald J. Trump and Hillary Clinton.

How Teens In The Balkans Are Duping Trump Supporters With Fake News | @CraigSilverman,@LawrenceA_UK @BuzzFeed @NiemanLab
BuzzFeed News identified more than 100 pro-Trump websites being run from a single town in the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia

Passing the Baton (11/2) | @LeeMiringoff @maristpoll

The Political Process Isn’t Rigged — It Has Much Bigger Problems (8/4) | @Redistrict @FiveThirtyEight

Why Democrats Must Not Underestimate Donald Trump (3/23) | @PollHeadlines

What The Yankees-Red Sox Rivalry Can Teach Us About Political Polarization | @eitanhersh (@Yale) @FiveThirtyEight

Why Republican Voters Decided On Trump (5/4) | @NateSilver538 @FiveThirtyEight

The End Of A Republican Party: Racial and cultural resentment have replaced the party’s small government ethos.(7/18) | @ClareMalone @ForecasterEnten,@davidnield @FiveThirtyEight


Ireland Vol.15 (Pegasystems, Arklu)