US Policy Changes Vol.13 (Employment/Economy Vol.2)

Here are excerpts on employment from Scoring the Trump Economic Plan: Trade, Regulatory, and Energy Policy Impacts (PDF; 9/29/2016) | Peter Navarro and Wilbur Ross.

II. There Is Nothing Normal About The “New Normal”
… Many left-of-center economists – and the Obama Administration – have described this era of slower growth as the “new normal.” They blame this plunge at least in part on demographic shifts…
As @davidrdollar of @BrookingsChina notes, US direct investment flows to China were “fairly stable at about $1.6 billion per year in the period 1999-2003” but “jumped in the period 2004-2008 to an annual average of $6.4 billion.”
Justin Pierce of @federalreserve staff and @YaleSOM’s Peter Schott attribute most of the decline in US manufacturing jobs from 2001 to 2007 to the China deal. David Autor of @MIT, David Dorn of @uzh_news_en, and Gordon Hanson of @UCSanDiego have described a “China trade shock” that has raised the unemployment rate, depressed wages and the labor participation rate, and reduced the lifetime income of workers in American manufacturing most “exposed” to the shock.
… All we have gotten from tilting at Keynesian windmills is a doubling our of national debt from $10 trillion to $20 trillion under Obama-Clinton and the weakest economic recovery since World War II – combined with depleted infrastructure and a shrunken military. …

III. How Nations Grow and Prosper
… The structural problems driving the slow growth in the US economy over the last 15 years have primarily been the investment and net exports drivers in the GDP growth equation.
The national income accounts divide investment into three categories: residential fixed investment, the change in private inventories, and the category we are most concerned with in this report, nonresidential fixed investment. …
To the extent unfavorable tax, trade, energy, and/or regulatory policies “push” capital investment offshore or discourage onshore investment, nonresidential fixed investment is reduced in the GDP equation, and this “offshoring drag” subtracts directly from GDP growth. …
… @EconomicPolicy estimates that there are more than 2.2 million workers “missing” from the accounting by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the calculation of the unemployment rate. If these workers were actually counted, the US unemployment rate would be at 6.2%, significantly higher than the official rate of 4.9%. Increasing real GDP growth from 1.9% to 3.5% would put almost all of these missing workers back to work a year.