Here are excerpts on energy from Scoring the Trump Economic Plan: Trade, Regulatory, and Energy Policy Impacts (PDF; 9/29/2016) | Peter Navarro and Wilbur Ross.
V. Energy Policy Growth Effects
…@Columbia_Biz Geoffrey Heal… …@NERA_Economics…
…@IERenergy has estimated that America’s GDP will increase by $127 billion annually for the first seven years and by $450 billion annually for the subsequent 30 years as a result of the expansion of our energy sector.
…we discount the @IERenergy $127 billion estimate by 25% to $95.25 billion for the purposes of our calculations and ignore any step-up in years eight through ten. …
Running The Energy Policy Numbers
We assume that wages are 44% of revenues, or $41.9 billion per year. They are taxed at a 28% effective rate (including a withholding tax rate of 21% and a trust tax rate of 7%). Therefore, $11.73 billion will be paid in personal taxes.
We assume that the pre-tax profit margin on incremental sales will be 15%, or $14.29 billion. Applying the 15% business tax rate, this results in $2.15 billion in taxes paid, leaving $12.14 billion in post-tax earnings.
We also assume that energy companies will pay out only 20% of their incremental post-tax earnings in dividends or $2.43 billion. This yields additional tax revenues of $440 million at a tax rate of 18%.
…the $12.14 billion in post-tax earnings minus the $2.43 billion in dividends paid leaves producers with $9.71 billion of post-tax, post-dividends earnings. …