US Policy Changes Vol.18 (Trade Vol.3)

Here are excerpts on scoring trade (seemingly OK only for reference at this point) from Scoring the Trump Economic Plan: Trade, Regulatory, and Energy Policy Impacts (PDF; 9/29/2016) | Peter Navarro and Wilbur Ross.

VIII. Trade Policy Effects
… However, imports in goods have risen at an even faster pace, from $40.9 billion in 1970 to $2.3 trillion in 2015. Although some of our imported goods contain American export content, they still represent a significant subtraction from GDP growth, even after accounting for the positive contribution of services to the trade balance. …

Scoring Trade Deficit Drag
In 2015… trade deficits matter a great deal when it comes to GDP growth.
…completely eliminate its roughly $500 billion 2015 trade deficit through… in a one-time gain of 3.38 real GDP points and a real GDP growth rate that year of 5.97%.

Income Statement Approach to Scoring Trade Effects
… Again assuming labor is 44 percent of GDP, eliminating the deficit would result in $220 billion of additional wages. …
In addition, businesses would earn at least a 15% profit margin on the $500 billion of incremental revenues, and this translates into pretax profits of $75 billion. …
This leaves businesses with $63.75 billion of additional net profit which must be distributed between dividends and retained earnings. …
…at least two more increments of revenues. …businesses will retain $42.5 billion of cash flow after paying both taxes and dividends.
Since taxes are paid in nominal, not real, dollars, we have applied to them a 1.1082 inflation factor for a total of $869.76 billion of incremental tax revenues over the ten years from the elimination of the trade deficit. …

See Appendix D (p28-29)