US Policy Changes Vol.19 (Trade Vol.4)

Here are excerpts on trade, et al. from Scoring the Trump Economic Plan: Trade, Regulatory, and Energy Policy Impacts (PDF; 9/29/2016) | Peter Navarro and Wilbur Ross.

IX. Inflation and Trade War Critiques of The Trump Plan
… Trump’s proposals will reverse these trends, concentrate more wealth and purchasing power in the hands of domestic workers, and result in substantially higher employment. …

Income Benefits Vs. Inflation Concerns
…as products develop a competitive advantage in America and increase their production and margins, prices per unit will go down. Those purchasing products made in America will not only purchase them duty-free but from a dramatically reduced business tax, with lower energy costs, and reduced regulatory costs. …

Trump Will End, Not Start, A Trade War
… It is a war in which the American government has surrendered before engaging. Unfair trade practices and policies of our competitors are overlooked or ignored. …
… However, most of these imports do not come from the US. With Trump promising to increase oil and natural gas production in the US and remove any restrictions on US exports, there are reasonable deals to be made here with little or no cost to our petroleum-dependent trading partners, and…
… However, a Trump Administration will confront China’s continued high tariffs on a wide range of American products, from motorcycles to raisins, as well as China’s limits on imports such as cotton from the US.
Trump will also insist that China relax its numerous non-tariff barriers now blocking US exports across a wide range of products, including autos, agricultural commodities, fertilizers, and telecommunications equipment. …
Ultimately, our view is that doing nothing about unfair trade practices is the most hazardous course of action – and the results of this hazard are lived out every day by millions of displaced American workers and deteriorating communities. …

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I. Introduction
…the Tax Foundation does not score other elements of the Trump economic plan that are growth-inducing and therefore revenue-generating.
…the overall plan is fiscally conservative and approaches revenue neutrality in the baseline Tax Foundation scenario. …
Table One: Tax Revenue Offset Under Trump Trade, Regulatory and Energy Policy Reforms

X. Conclusions and Recommendations
… Our analysis indicates that the Trump trade, regulatory, and energy policy reforms would collectively increase Federal tax revenues by $2.4 trillion. …
… the Trump economic plan is fiscally conservative. When properly scored, it approaches revenue neutrality and, with proposed budget savings outlined by the campaign are taken into account, it achieves revenue neutrality …
Journalists are likewise urged to consider the following checklist when they are reporting the latest results from the modeling community:
1. Does the model account for supply side tax policy effects?
2. Does the model account for energy and regulatory policy effects?
3. Does the model account for synergies between tax and trade policies? (For example, a cut in the corporate tax will boost business investment, and increase GDP growth and revenues – is that counted?)
4. Does the model account for trade deficit and offshoring effects, which represent significant drags on U.S. GDP growth?
We hope this analysis will spark an important debate that goes beyond the old and tired critiques that have little or no relevance for the challenges we face in this new century. …

p23-29 Appendix A-D