UK Vol.64 (Post-EUref Vol.10 – BREXIT AND BEYOND Vol.5)

Here are excerpts from BREXIT AND BEYOND – HOW THE UNITED KINGDOM MIGHT LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION (PDF; Nov 2016) | @UKandEU @PolStudiesAssoc.

CHAPTER FIVE: HOW MIGHT BREXIT AFFECT THE FUTURE SHAPE OF THE UK?
5.1 Brexit and the devolved nations
… The least constitutionally disruptive means by which the divergent policy interests of the devolved nations could be accommodated within the current state structure would be for Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales to take advantage of the repatriation of competences, along with existing powers, and to shadow EU, rather than UK policies in some fields. …
… All sides are agreed that closing the Irish border would be a serious mistake and that some accommodation will have to be made. … It is difficult, however, to envisage Northern Ireland being within the Single Market and the rest of the UK being outside it without controls on trade in goods and services between Northern Ireland and Great Britain. In Scotland, there has been talk of a ‘reverse Greenland’ under which EU law would not apply in England and Wales (as it does not in Greenland) but would apply in Scotland and Northern Ireland. However, the Greenland analogy is hard to make…
The most radical option… Scotland would become independent, and perhaps either continue as a successor state to the UK, or more likely join as a new member. Northern Ireland could retain membership through unification with the Republic. …
… Polls do not suggest that Scottish voters would be ready to abandon the UK market in order to remain within the European one. If the UK were to negotiate access to the Single Market, however, that would make Scottish independence more viable. Irish unification would keep open the border between the two parts of Ireland, but leave a hard border with the UK, which would not be acceptable to unionist opinion. …

CHAPTER SIX: CONCLUSION
… The implications, as we have illustrated, range from the obvious reshaping of relations between the UK and the EU, to changes in the structure of the British state, to potentially profound alterations in the relations between the nations that make it up. …
…the rise of UKIP, divisions within the Labour and Conservative Parties, and the popularity of the SNP north of the border are all related in some way to the politics of British EU membership. …
Ultimately, Brexit will be driven by politics and the preferences of powerful political actors in both the UK and the remaining EU Member States. …