UK Vol.124 (Post-EUref #Brexit Vol.42)


Ireland Vol.36 (Leinster Vol.7 – Fingal)

@FingalNews
@fingalindo
@FingalChamber website
@itbdublin
@fingalarts
@fingalcommunity
@Balrothery
@SkerriesCA
@NewbridgeHF
@FlavoursFingal
@FingalEMU
@BlanchCTC
Blanchardstown centre has been cleared for a renovation to ‘bring it in line’ with rivals: The owners of the Dublin shopping mall want to remove its central fountain. (08/09/2018)


https://twitter.com/LoveFingalDub/status/1025754731707215872


Ireland Vol.35 (Leinster Vol.6 – South Dublin)

Ask about Ireland website: South Dublin
Amazon acquires former Jacob’s biscuit factory in Tallaght (09/07/2015)
INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY TALLAGHT LAUNCHES ITS NEW OFFICE FOR BUSINESS & INDUSTRY | OBI
@wesleycollege
@ITTallaght
@SDublinChamber
@creativeirl
South Dublin History


Ireland Vol.34 (Leinster Vol.5 – Dún Laoghaire – Rathdown)

@IrishTimes Local Election Results for Dún Laoghaire / Rathdown
@DLR_Chamber
@myIADT
@DunLaoghaireBID
@DLHarbour
@DLMarina_Dublin
@DFEI_Ireland
Dún Laoghaire’s Digital Transformation: Summary of the Action Plan for the creation of the Digital Dún Laoghaire Cluster (PDF; 04/2017) | Eoin Costello & Sven Spollen-Behrens
dun laoghaire – rathdown baseline emissions report 2016 | @SEAI_ie


Ireland Vol.33 (Leinster Vol.4 – Wicklow, Kildare)

Wicklow
@visitwicklow website
@WicklowUplands
@DCWschool
@WWolfBrewery


Kildare
@intokildare website
@KildareVillage
@ChamberKildare
@MaynoothUni


Kildare5Kildare6Kildare8Kildare7Kildare9Kildare10Kildare11


Ireland Vol.32 (Leinster Vol.3 – Meath, Louth)

Meath
@ireland101com website: Meath
@meathtourism
@SlaneFoodCircle
@Boynevalleyblue
@TheWholeHoggs
@MeathChambers
@BusinessInAsh
@kellschamber
@KellsTech_
@MakeItMeath
@MeathInnovates
@DigitalNavan
@MeathToday
@MeathDaily
@BeaufortCollege
@DiscoverBoyneV


Louth
@louthcoco website: Louth Field Names Project
@DroghedaChamber
@DroghedaLifecom
@BallymakennyF
@DrummondHGarlic
@DkIT_ie
@DundalkChamber
@dundalktown
@dundalkonline


Ireland Vol.31 (Leinster Vol.2 – Laois, Offaly, Westmeath, Longford)

Laois
@LaoisCouncil website
@Laois_Chamber
@LaoisBusinesses
@DowntownPortlao
@laoisoffalyetb
@IWTLaoisOffaly


Offaly
@visitoffaly website
@Offaly_Express
@TullamoreTrib
@offalyindo
@MidlandTrib
@JunctionOffaly


Westmeath
RootsIreland website: Westmeath
Westmeath Tourism
@westmeathindo
@seansbarathlone
@AthloneIT
@athlonechamber


Longford
@LongfordTourism website
@chamberlongford


Ireland Vol.30 (Leinster Vol.1 – Kilkenny, Carlow, Wexford)

Ireland Leinster
Kilkenny
@LoveKilkenny website
@kilkenny
@KKPeopleNews
@SavourKilkenny
@KilkennyChamber
@investkilkenny
@kilkennycollege


Carlow
@CWnationalist
@LoveCarlow
@VisitCarlow
@carlowtourism website
@CarlowCollege
@itcarlow
@fairgreensc
@VisualCarlow
@carlowchamber
ENTERPRISE HOUSE IN CARLOW ANNOUNCED AS VODAFONE & SIRO’S LATEST GIGABIT HUB (03/29/2018)


Wexford
@visitwexford website
@WexfordHub
@WexfordLocalDev
@WexfordChamber
@WexFoodFamily
@WexfordCreamery
@WexPreserves
@GoreyChamber
@NewRossChamber
@newrossstandard


US Policy Changes Vol.98 (Foreign Policy Vol.14: Turkey’s lira crisis)

Excerpts are on our own.

Trump Is the First President to Get Turkey Right: Good riddance to the so-called strategic relationship between Washington and Ankara. (08/13/2018) | STEVEN A. COOK @ForeignPolicy
… Then there is the detention of Pastor Andrew Brunson in Turkey since October 2016. This has become a flashpoint between the two countries this summer, especially after Ankara seemed to renege on a deal for his release. But Turkey is also holding between 15 and 20 U.S.-Turkish dual citizens—including a NASA scientist—on trumped-up terrorism charges. Three Turkish employees of the U.S. Embassy have also been arrested. They are being used as bargaining chips to force the United States to hand over Fethullah Gulen, a green card holder who Ankara accuses of masterminding the failed July 2016 coup, and/or to secure the release of a Turkish banker convicted in a New York court of aiding the elaborate scheme to help Tehran get around multilateral sanctions. …
Of course, the United States has an interest in a healthy Turkish economy, if only to prevent the meltdown of the lira from affecting other emerging markets’ currencies. … …Albayrak plans to pursue fiscal discipline, help companies most affected by the lira’s slide, and, contrary to rumors, the government will not seize foreign exchange deposits — good news for foreign investors. At the same, the minister stated that the volatility of the lira was unsupported by the underlying economic data, thus it is clear Turkey is under “attack by the biggest player of the global financial system.” He means the United States.
… Since at least 2013, Erdogan has been telling Turks that when the day of reckoning comes for the Turkish economy, it will be someone else’s fault. If Turks are suffering, then it could not possibly be the responsibility of a government led by someone who believes high interest rates cause inflation (which is exactly backward), but rather the result of the nefarious machinations of the “interest lobby,” Zionists, and the always useful “foreign forces.” Because Erdogan has made the economy a nationalist issue, seeking help from the IMF is politically risky. …encourage his constituents to exchange dollars and euros into lira. …
… It should be clear by now that there is no strategic relationship. Turkey and the United States have different interests and priorities. The lists of grievances on both sides reflects that fact. The fallout is not a function of the unique personalities and worldviews of the American and Turkish presidents, but rather at a fundamental level is the result of a changing world in which Washington and Ankara no longer share a common threat. …
… Perhaps the controversy over Pastor Brunson and the way the Turkish government has responded to the lira crisis will be a clarifying moment, highlighting what should be clear by now: Turkey is no longer an ally or partner.

Capital Outflows and Sudden Stop (w Report; 08/14/2018) | @medium
…which kinds of capital inflow stop during the period? In the 2017 World Bank policy paper “Are capital flows fickle? Increasingly ? and does the answer still depend on type? ” Barry Eichengreen, Poonam Gupta, and Oliver Masetti have tried to investigate how different kinds of capital flows behave during a sudden stop. …
The most rapid capital outflow, however, is in that the authors categorized as ”Others.” Included in others are flows through the banking sector (loans, deposits and banking capital), loans raised by the private sector, and trade credits. …

Erdogan Faces a Challenge He Can’t Easily Bully: Turkey’s Economy (08/13/2018) | Carlotta Gall @nytimes
… “The interest-rate hikes and budget cuts will be painful,” said Atilla Yesilada, an Istanbul-based consultant at Global Source Partners…
“It is the fundamental view of the true populist,” explained Sinan Ulgen, chairman of the Istanbul-based Center for Economic and Foreign Policy Studies, also known as E.D.A.M. …
Turkey has always had a strong bureaucracy, modeled on the French system, with a senior bureaucrat, called an undersecretary, in every ministry, assisted by deputy undersecretaries. Those positions have been eliminated and the civil servant positions replaced with deputy ministers appointed by Mr. Erdogan. …
…the polarizing nature of Mr. Erdogan’s rule, which has increasingly pushed out people who are seen as ideologically or politically opposed to his Justice and Development Party…
…the purges of 150,000 public employees since the failed coup of 2016. …
Mr. Albayrak, 40, holds an M.B.A. from Pace University in New York, and worked as the United States representative for Calik Holdings, a Turkish construction and trading company known for its close links to the government.
… Mr. Yesilada called for a hefty interest rate hike of at least 5 percentage points and said that a “handshake with the United States is an absolute minimum.” …

European bank CDS showing no contagion (PDF; 13/08/2018) | @CanaccorGenuity
… Turkish debt-to-GDP is about half of what Greece’s was at the beginning of the European Debt Crisis. The fear in the marketplace is that the historic drop in the Turkish lire makes non-Turkish debt unaffordable to service, which could lead to a contagion effect on European banks with significant exposure to Turkey. …
… The Turkish currency crisis provides an excellent excuse for a temporary pullback, but thus far has shown no reason for us to adopt a more intermediate-term defensive position.

How serious is Turkey’s lira crisis and what are the implications?: The options as the country’s economic growth displays the classic signs of overheating (13/08/2018) | Larry Elliott @guardian
… now displaying the classic signs of overheating: a large trade deficit, a construction boom and soaring debt. Financial markets have taken fright at inflation, rising at an annual rate of more than 15%, and have been selling the Turkish lira, which is down by 45% against the US dollar since the start of the year. …
The direct impact of what looks like an inevitable recession in Turkey would be relatively small because, despite a population of 80 million and strong growth in recent years, the country accounts for only 1% of global GDP. …
… Turkey’s problems are particularly acute because it has more than $300bn of dollar-denominated corporate debt, which is getting more expensive to finance by the day. However, other countries – such as Mexico and South Africa – also took advantage of low US interest rates in the years after the financial crisis to borrow heavily in dollars and saw their currencies coming under pressure. …
… only two things will halt the lira sell-off: a substantial rise in official interest rates (already above 17%) or the announcement of an emergency package of financial support from the International Monetary Fund – or, if things continue to deteriorate, both together. …

What the Turkish lira crisis means for President Erdogan’s hold on power: Erdoğan built his supporter base by promising economic stability. Can he withstand a crisis? (14/08/2018) | YÖRÜK BAHÇELI @NewStatesman
… Erdoğan is known to have been opposed to higher interest rates throughout his leadership, labelling them “the mother and father of all evil” dictated by an “interest rate lobby”. In his earlier years, however, officials around him were able to convince him to allow them to act in line with market demands, while he was also bound by IMF requirements. But once IMF programmes came to an end and interest rates fell following the great recession, Erdoğan was able to become more vocal and staunch in his opposition to higher rates. …

Russia backs non-dollar trade with Turkey, no promise of help amid lira crisis (w Video; 08/15/2018) | Andrey Ostroukh and Tuvan Gumrukcu @reuters @YahooFinance
… “I am confident that the grave abuse of the role of the U.S. dollar as a global reserve currency will result over time in the weakening and demise of its role,” Lavrov said, echoing statements made by President Vladimir Putin.
However, Lavrov did not announce any immediate commitment to drop the dollar in trade with Turkey or provide it with financial aid, leaving observers guessing if the two countries, both hit by U.S. sanctions, have agreed on any bilateral deal.
“They will likely just give warm words to Turkey, looking to exploit the situation and stir things up for the U.S. and the West,” said Timothy Ash, senior strategist at BlueBay Asset Management. …

‘Clear risks of contagion’: European markets drop as Turkey’s lira crisis spreads around the world (08/13/2018) | Will Martin @businessinsider @YahooFinance
… “Because of the high participation of foreign banks and portfolio investors in Turkey, there are clear risks of contagion,” Hasnain Malik, a strategist who is the head of equity research at Exotix, said in an email.
Capital Economics warned in a note on Friday that Spain, Italy, and France were likely to be the worst hit by the Turkish currency crisis because of the exposure of their banking systems. But the analyst house said the impact would be relatively limited because of the limited size of the Turkish economy.

Turkey lira crisis: Six things you need to know: A breakdown of the events, causes and effects, as Turkey’s currency collapses amid a diplomatic row with the US. (w Videos; 08/14/2018) | @aljazeera
… On Monday, the Indian rupee suffered its worst one-day fall – at more than 1.5 percent – hitting a record low of 69.9 rupees to $1. …
The South African rand has also taken a hit this week as a result of the Turkish developments, falling 10 percent before stabilising on Monday – down to a two-year low against the dollar. …

Turkey lira: Ankara to boycott US electronic goods (14/08/2018) | @BBC
Asian shares stumble as markets shrug off Wall Street relief bump; Hang Seng down 1.5% (08/15/2018) | @CNBC
Turkey Lira: Shock graph showing how Turkey CRISIS is deepening when pitted against euro (08/14/2018) | Matt Drake @Daily_Express


US Policy Changes Vol.97 (Foreign Policy Vol.13)


Brittle Times for the Transatlantic Relationship (PDF; in large part in German) | Cathryn Cluver Ashbrook @ Atlantik-Brucke


Belfer Center Experts on U.S. Withdrawal from the Iran Nuclear Deal (05/08/2018) | Graham Allison, Nicholas Burns, Matthew Bunn, Chuck Freilich, Hassan Ahmadian, Martin B. Malin, Steven E. Miller, Payam Mohseni, Ernest J. Moniz, Sahar Nowrouzzadeh, Nawaf Obaid, Gary Samore, Elizabeth D. Sherwood-Randall, William H. Tobey @BelferCenter


A timeline of the Trump administration’s actions on Russia (07/26/2018) | @BrookingsInst


Kazakhstan Must Look Beyond the Belt and Road | Philippe Le Corre


Belfer Center Experts Offer Insight on U.S.-North Korea Summit


UK Vol.123 (Post-EUref #Brexit Vol.41)


UK Vol.122 (Post-EUref #Brexit Vol.40)

Trade Post-Brexit (PDF) | Herbert Smith Freehills


The Impact of Hard Brexit on Polish Exports (w PDF; 06/07/2018) | Jakub Borowski, Jakub Olipra & Paweł Błaszyński @sciendo_


https://twitter.com/Doozy_45/status/965876705297563648


A hard Brexit could see the EU lose – 2.3 billion worth of pork exports | Farmers Guardian
Hard Brexit: a threat for Italian food exports (13/07/2018) | @italianfood_net
Hard Brexit would mean more and cheaper British fish – but there’s a catch (24/04/2018) | @dpcarrington @guardian


Hard Brexit and the Supply Chain – Effects on German automotive suppliers (PDF; January 2018) | Deloitte


UK Vol.121 (Post-EUref #Brexit Vol.39)


MODELING IRISH UNIFICATION (PDF; 11/17/2015) | KLC Consulting


Theresa May’s cancelled Cabinet sleepover suggests she’s plotting a soft Brexit (06/27/2018) | Thomas Colson @businessinsider
Boris Johnson just resigned over Brexit talks. Prime Minister Theresa May could be in trouble. (07/09/2018) | @ZeeshanAleem @Vox


US Policy Changes Vol.94 (Foreign Policy Vol.11: NATO & G7 summit)

NATO


G7 Summit


https://twitter.com/dw_politics/status/1006171735367045122


UK Vol.120 (England Vol.13 – East of England Vol.6)

Cambridgeshire
Cambridgeshire1Cambridgeshire2Cambridgeshire3


At a glance | Cambridge Cluster Group
@camcitco
@CambsPboroCA
@EastCambs Economic Audit 2013 (PDF) | @investeastcambs
Cambridgeshire Local Economic Assessment 2011 (PDF) | @CambsCC
Economic Development Strategy 2010-2015 (PDF) | @SouthCambs
Cambridgeshire’s Economic Assessment (PDF) | @huntsdc
CAMBRIDGESHIRE AND PETERBOROUGH AUTHORITIES’STATUTORY GOVERNANCE REVIEW (PDF; June 2106) | @PeterboroughCC
East Cambridgeshire: Annual demographic and socio-economic report (PDF; April 2011) | Cambridgeshire County Council
Greater Cambridgeshire and Greater Peterborough Area Review (PDF; August 2017) | Department of Education
Cambridge economy is UK’s fastest growing – and it will stay top in 2018 (12/01/2018) | Paul Brackley @CambridgeIndy
Cambridge economy | @CambridgeOnline
Online Business Directory | @cambschamber
Places to visit in Cambridgeshire | @nationaltrust
What are the big issues in the Cambridgeshire & Peterborough mayoral race? (04/28/2017) | Simon Jeffrey @CityMetric
The Case for Cambridge (PDF) | @CambAhead
Cambridge Business Park
Top 14 Most Active Seed Investors in Cambridge (10/17/2017) | @seedlegals
Businesses in Milton | Milton Village
CPIER – Cambridgeshire & Peterborough Independent Economic Review
@GreaterCambs
@BBCCambs
@Cambslive
@CambsInsight
@HeartCambsNews
@HeartCambs


UK Vol.119 (England Vol.12 – East of England Vol.5)

East of England Science and Innovation Audit | @YourLEP
Cambridge named best UK city to work in but London does not make the list, Glassdoor says (12/07/2016) | Zlata Rodionova @Independent
@SmarterCam
@CamSciencePark
@CamCUSPE
@CambridgeCDBB
@CSciPol
@cambridgenlp
@CSIC_IKC
@CUTEC
@IfMCambridge
@MSFTResearchCam
@StJohnsCentre
@cambwireless
@CambConsultants
@CamServAlliance
@CRASSHlive
@CamB2B
@UCamEnterprise
@CJBS_EC
@CBG_Connect
@CambNetwork
@CambridgeIntel
@CambAhead
@CamWhatsOn
@CambsEdition
@CambridgeBID
@foodpark_Cam
@VisitCambs
@CambridgeCornEx
@businessweekly
@ideaSpace
@CDP_innovation
@egtechnology
@ttp_plc
@cambridgedesign
@Sagentia
@42Technology
Cambridge Dynamics
Cambridge Nanosystems
Cambridge Display Technology, Ltd. | SUMITOMO CHEMICAL Group Companies of Europe
Science Services | @BabrahamInst
Stories | @Co_Biologists
Intelligent technologies | @KymabLtd
@AstraZeneca in Cambridge
Is Cambridge the new centre of the UK pharma industry? (08/09/2015) | Peter Hogg @ProClinical
Cambridgeshire’s top 100 companies revealed – and profits, turnover and wages are on the rise (16/11/2017) | Paul Brackley @CambridgeIndy
The 15 Hottest Tech Companies In Cambridge (01/27/2015) | James Cook @businessinsider
Smaller companies | @CambridgeJBS
Top 50 Cleantech Growth Companies announced at Cambridge Cleantech Conference (14/06/2016) | Cambridge Cleantech


UK Vol.118 (England Vol.11 – East of England Vol.4)

University of Cambridge
@christs_college
@ChurchillCol
@ClareCollege
@clarehall_cam
@CorpusCambridge
@DarwinCollege
@downingcollege
@EmmaCambridge
@FitzwilliamColl
@GirtonCollege
@CaiusCollege
@HomertonCollege
@Hughes_Hall
@JesusCollegeCam
@Kings_College
@LucyCavColl
@magdalenealumni
@MECCambridge
@Newnham_College
@pembroke1347
@Peterhouse_Cam
@QueensCam
@RobCollConf
@Selwyn1882
@SidneySussex
@Catz_Cambridge
@StEdmundsCam
@stjohnscam
@TrinCollCam
@TrinityHallCamb
@WolfsonCam


UK Vol.117 (England Vol.10 – East of England Vol.3)

Essex
Essex1Essex2Essex3-southEssex4-SouthendOnSeaEssex5-Thurrock


Essex | Encyclopaedia Britannica
@EssexChambers
@IntEssexChamber
Greater Essex Area Review – Final Report (PDF; August 2017) | UK Department of Education
REPORT ON GREATER ESSEX ECONOMY – Executive Summary (PDF; January 2017) | Essex Economic Commission (@AngliaRuskin)
Introduction to Essex Research Paper (PDF; August2010) | Integrated County Strategy Working Group on behalf of the Essex Chief Executives Association
University of Essex Knowledge Gateway | @UKSPA
£4.7 million to boost economic growth in the east of England (12/10/2017) | @Uni_of_Essex
Essex County, England | @obspascal
Everything you wanted to know about Essex… …but were TOWIE afraid to ask. (PDF; 2015) | @VisitEssex
Strategic Countywide Economic & Housing Issues – Essex Issues Paper August 2009 | @Essex_CC
Economic Impact of Tourism (PDF; 2015) | Destination Research
Access to Harlow: Stage 1 Option Assessment Report (PDF; May 2016) | @essexhighways
A12 Chelmsford to A120 widening: Options Assessment Report (PDF) | @HighwaysEngland
Chelmsford Economic Strategy 2017 (PDF) | @ChelmsCouncil
Colchester Annual Economic Report 2015/6 (PDF) | @colchbusiness @yourcolchester
@MilbankConcrete
Opportunity South Essex – Economic Growth Strategy For South Essex (PDF; 2016)
The South East Business Hub is here to help your business on the path to growth and prosperity. | @SEBusinessHub
ECONOMIC GROWTH STRATEGY 2017-22 (PDF) | @SouthendBC
UK POLLING REPORT – Thurrock | @anthonyjwells
Our data centre sites in and around London are managed to Tier III Gold capability and designed to aid connectivity | @fujitsu_uk
Thurrock Thames Gateway Development Corporation (PDF) | @thurrockcouncil
LONDON GATEWAY PORT | @investessex


UK Vol.116 (England Vol.9 – East of England Vol.2)

counties-of-the-united-kingdom35_newcopy.jpgAroundLondon2

Hertfordshire
Hertfordshire1Hertfordshire2Hertfordshire3


Hertfordshire | Encyclopaedia Britannica
@HertsChamber
Hertfordshire Area Review – Final Report (PDF; August 2017) | UK Department of Education
Annual Report 2016/17 (PDF) | @hertscc
The Hertfordshire Economy | Hertfordshire Local Enterprise Partnership @ThreeRiversDC
Hertfordshire’s Economic Development Strategy 2009-2021 – A Summary
United Kingdom | @Berry_News
Stronghold International Ltd

Bedfordshire
Bedfordshire1Bedfordshire3


Bedfordshire | Encyclopaedia Britannica
@letstalkcentral
@BedsChamberInfo
@CranfieldUni @cranfieldmngmt
Cranfield University opens £35m aerospace centre (18/10/2017) | @BBC
Bedfordshire’s Natural Environment – its value to us all (PDF) | Bedfordshire Local Nature Partnership
@lutoncouncil
@thinkluton
@uniofbeds
2017 Vital Signs (PDF) | Bedfordshire and Luton Community Foundation


UK Vol.115 (England Vol.8 – East of England Vol.1)

England regions

East of England
EastOfEngland regionEastOfEngland
@BBCLookEast
LOCAL AUTHORITIES IN THE EAST OF ENGLAND (PDF; 01/04/2018) | UK Department of Defence
WHY UNIVERSITIES MATTER FOR THE EAST OF ENGLAND (PDF) | @UniversitiesUK
Commercialising Innovation: A Briefing Paper on historic trends and policy context (PDF) | @LGAcomms

Norfolk
EastOfEngland Norfolk


@NorfolkCC
@norfolkchamber
Norfolk Economic Intelligence Report (PDF; 2016) | Norfolk County Council
Norfolk’s Story (PDF; October 2017) | Norfolk Insight (Norfolk County Council)
Norfolk | Encyclopaedia Britannica
North Norfolk District Council
North Norfolk centre for small and start-up businesses gets a step closer | @Nwes_Group
The Impact of Brexit on North Norfolk: A discussion note (PDF; March 2018) | Martyn Sloman
@cwa_college
South Norfolk business booming, says Experian research (19/03/2012) | David Keller @BBC
Norwich economic strategy 2013-18 (PDF) | Norwich City Council
@uniofeastanglia
Your Sustainable Community Strategy for South Norfolk: Important Issues – Local Action 2008-2018 (PDF) | South Norfolk Alliance
Tour Norfolk
@prldesign

Suffolk
EastOfEngland Suffolk


@suffolkcc
@suffolkchamber
West Suffolk business fact pack (PDF) | @InvestinSuffolk
East Suffolk Economic Growth Plan, 2018-23 (PDF; Draft-v7; January 2018)
The East’s Institute of Technology (PDF)
@UniofSuffolk
@suffolknewcoll
@EastCoast_Coll
Ambitious bid to create Institute of Technology moves a step closer to success (20/06/2018) | @WestSuffolk
Colleges in Norfolk and Suffolk launch ‘collaborative’ group | Billy Camden @FEWeek
@camnano


Predictions Vol.1 (“Prediction of the FIFA World Cup 2018”)

The below rough excerpt of Prediction of the FIFA World Cup 2018 – A random forest approach with an emphasis on estimated team ability parameters (PDF; 06/08/2018) | Andreas Groll, Christophe Ley, Gunther Schauberger, Hans Van Eetvelde is on our own.

p.1: …four previous FIFA World Cups 2002 – 2014: Poisson regression models, random forests and ranking methods. …
p.2: … By aggregating the winning odds from several online bookmakers and transforming those into winning probabilities, inverse tournament simulation can be used to compute team-specific abilities… With the team-specific abilities all single matches are simulated via paired comparisons and, hence, the complete tournament course is obtained. Using this approach, Zeileis, Leitner, and Hornik (2018) forecast Brazil to win the FIFA World Cup 2018 with a probability of 16.6%, followed by Germany (15.8%) and Spain (12.5%).
…(Audran, Bolliger, Kolb, Mariscal, and Pilloud, 2018): they obtain Germany as top favorite with a winning probability of 24.0%, followed by Brazil (19.8%) and Spain (16.1%). They use a statistical model based on four factors that are supposed to indicate how well a team will be doing during the tournament: the Elo rating, the teams’ performances in the qualifications preceding the World Cup, the teams’ success in previous World Cup tournaments and a home advantage. …
p.5:
Economic Factors [GDP per capita, Population],
Sportive factors [ODDSET probability, FIFA rank],
Home advantage [Host, Continent, Confederation],
Factors describing the team’s structure [(Second) maximum number of teammates, Average age, Number of Champions League (Europa League) players, Number of players abroad/Legionnaires],
Factors describing the team’s coach
p.8: 3.1 Random forests
…an aggregation of a (large) number of classification or regression trees (CARTs). …to find partitions such that the respective response values are very homogeneous within a partition but very heterogeneous between partitions. CARTs can be used both for metric response (regression trees) and for nominal/ordinal responses (classification trees). The most frequent visualization tool for CARTs is the so-called dendrogram…
p.11: 3.2 Regression
…the scores of the competing teams are treated as (conditionally) independent variables following a Poisson distribution (conditioned on certain covariates)…
p.13: 3.3 Ranking methods
…how Poisson models can be used to lead to rankings that reflect a team’s current ability… The main idea consists in assigning a strength parameter to every team and in estimating those parameters over a period of M matches via weighted maximum likelihood, where the weights are of two types: time depreciation and match importance…
… The match importance weights are directly inherited from the official FIFA ranking and can take the values 1 for a friendly game, 2.5 for a confederation or world cup qualifier, 3 for a confederation tournament…, and 4 for World Cup matches. …
p.15: 3.4 Combining methods
1. Form a training data set containing three out of four World Cups.
5. Compare predicted and real outcomes for all prediction methods.
p.16: …three different performance measures to compare the predictive power of the methods:
…the multinomial likelihood, the classification rate, the rank probability score (RPS)…

p.20: 4 Prediction of the FIFA World Cup 2018
…combination of a random forest with adequate team ability estimates from a ranking method… The abilities were estimated by the bivariate
Poisson model with a half period of 3 years. All matches of the 228 national teams played since 2010-06-13 up to 2018-06-06 are used for the estimation, what results in a total of more than 7000 matches. All further predictor variables are taken as the latest values shortly before the World Cup…
4.1 Probabilities for FIFA World Cup 2018 Winner
…according to our random forest model, Spain is the favored team with a predicted winning probability of 17.8% followed by Germany, Brazil,
France and Belgium. … While Oddset favors Germany and Brazil, the random forest model predicts a slight advantage for Spain. …
p.21: Table 8: Estimated probabilities (in %) for reaching the different stages in the FIFA World Cup 2018 for all 32 teams based on 100,000 simulation runs of the FIFA World Cup together with winning probabilities based on the ODDSET odds.
p.22: Figure 4: Winning probabilities conditional on reaching the single stages of the tournament for the five favored teams.
p.23: 4.2 Most probable tournament course
… While in Group B and Group G the model forecasts Spain followed by Portugal as well as Belgium followed by England with rather high probabilities of 38.5% and 38.1%, respectively, other groups such as Group A, Group F and Group H seem to be more volatile. …
According to the most probable tournament course, instead of the Spanish the German team would win the World Cup. However, again it becomes obvious
that with (in that case) Switzerland the German team has to face a much stronger opponent than Spain in the round-of-sixteen. Even though still being the favorite in this match, they would succeed to move on to the quarter finals only with a probability of 61%. While in the most probable course of the knock-out stage, though having tough times in all single stages, Germany would make its way into the final and defend the title…
p.24: Table 9: Most probable final group standings together with the corresponding probabilities for the FIFA World Cup 2018 based on 100,000 simulation runs.
5 Concluding remarks
random forests, Poisson regression models and ranking methods. The former two approaches incorporate covariate information of the opposing teams, while the latter method pro-
p.25: Figure 5: Most probable course of the knockout stage together with corresponding probabilities for the FIFA World Cup 2018 based on 100,000 simulation runs.
vides team ability parameters which serve as adequate estimates of the current team strengths. …by incorporating the team ability parameters from the ranking methods as an additional covariate into the random forest the predictive power becomes substantially increased, leading to the best model capable of beating the bookmakers. …
p.26: …the fact that overall Spain is slightly favored over Germany is mainly due to the fact that Germany has a comparatively high chance to drop out in the round-of-sixteen. Actually, conditioned that Germany reaches the quarter finals, it overtakes Spain…


US Policy Changes Vol.90 (Trade)


UK Vol.114 (Post-EUref #Brexit Vol.38)


US Policy Changes Vol.83 (G7 Canada, Trade, et al.)


https://twitter.com/bbcworldservice/status/1005818970354651138


Switzerland Vol.3

Switzerland | OECD
Switzerland | The World Bank
Switzerland | The European Commission
2018 Index of Economic Freedom – Switzerland | The Heritage Foundation
Switzerland: Economy | global EDGE – Michigan State University
The Economic Performance of Swiss Regions – Indicators of Economic Performance, Composition of Cantonal Economies and Clusters of Traded Industries (PDF) | Philippe Gugler & Michael Keller Center for Competitiveness, University of Fribourg
Swiss economy to finally overcome weakness caused by sharp appreciation of Swiss franc – Year Ahead 2018 regional outlook: Switzerland (29/11/2017) | UBS
Switzerland – GDP and Economic Data | Global Finance
SWITZERLAND | EULER HERMES
Switzerland | Coface
Switzerland: the 2018 economic outlook (15/01/2018) | Roger Keller BNP PARIBAS
Switzerland Economy | ECONOMY WATCH
Best Countries For Business 2018 – Switzerland | Forbes
Switzerland – Detailed economic analysis, indicators and forecasts. | Moody’s Analytics, Inc.
Swiss National Bank
Free trade agreement Switzerland/EU and EFTA agreements (PDF)
Invest in Switzerland – Key Industries | Switzerland Global Enterprise
The Productivity Deficit of the Knowledge-Intensive Business Service Industries in Switzerland (PDF; 2015) | Boris Kaiser & Michael Siegenthaler – Study on behalf of the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs SECO
Greater Zurich Area
Switzerland | The Local
Switzerland | BBC
Switzerland | Guardian
Switzerland | The Telegraph
Switzerland | The New York Times
Switzerland | CNBC
Switzerland | CNN Money
Swiss Bankers Association
Switzerland (PDF) | Financial Secrecy Index
Switzerland | US News
Switzerland | EIU
Switzerland | The Economist
Switzerland | Credit Suisse
Switzerland | UN Global Compact
Switzerland – Human Development Indicators | UNDP
The CPT and Switzerland | Council of Europe
Switzerland | IAEA PRIS
Switzerland | National Geographic
Economy | Switzerland Tourism
Switzerland Innovation
Transforming the Swiss economy – The impact of automation on employment and industries | Deloitte
Switzerland | ARAB NEWS
Switzerland | Trading Economics
Is Switzerland the Perfect Economy? (07/31/2015) | Lina Kherchi The market Mogul
What makes Switzerland so competitive? (03/09/2014) | Thierry Geiger WEF
A Note on Switzerland’s Economy – Did the Swiss economy really stagnate in the 1990’s, and is Switzerland really all that rich ? (PDF) | Jean-Christian Lambelet and Alexander Mihailov Crea Institute, Lausanne University
Switzerland: Economy Overview (02/02/2010) | Ina Dimireva EUbusiness
Switzerland | European Social Survey
Switzerland’s Economic Dependence during World War II | HISTORY OF SWITZERLAND
Commanding Heights : Switzerland Overview | PBS
Global Innovation Index 2017: Switzerland, Sweden, Netherlands, USA, UK Top Annual Ranking (06/15/2017) | WIPO


Switzerland Vol.2


https://twitter.com/VisitZurich/status/965986923356434432


https://twitter.com/Trace_EPFL/status/988384213962502145


https://twitter.com/heclausanne/status/983268473169174528


Switzerland Vol.1

Switzerland_Cantons
Switzerland_Mountains
Switzerland_Linguistic


Cantons of Switzerland | TRAMsoft GmbH
The 10 Most Populous Cities In Switzerland | World Atlas
Switzerland’s Political System and Government | ALL ABOUT SWITZERLAND
The Federal Council, The portal of the Swiss government
Switzerland’s direct democracy (YouTube)
What Type Of Government Does Switzerland Have? | World Atlas
This is how Switzerland’s direct democracy works (31/07/2017) | Micol Lucchi WEF
Switzerland’s People Power (04/20/2017) | Catherine Bosley BLOOMBERG
7 Reasons Why Switzerland Is The Best-Run Country In The World (12/11/2012) | Max Nisen BUSINESS INSIDER
Switzerland Celebrates Europe’s Strangest System of Government (21/09/2017) | Mathieu von Rohr SPIEGEL ONLINE
The Swiss Cantonal System: A Model democracy (03/12/2000) | LIBERTY INTERNATIONAL
How Switzerland’s cabinet works – Politics in Switzerland | Just Landed
Switzerland’s 18 living ex-presidents: a political record (07/12/2017) | Thomas Stephens SWI
The political System of Switzerland | SwissCommunity
Switzerland Government | GraphicMaps
Switzerland Corruption Report | GAN BUSINESS ANTI-CORRUPTION Portal
SECRETS OF SWISS SUCCESS – LESSONS FOR NEW ZEALAND (PDF) | Oliver Hartwich The Centre for Independent Studies
https://twitter.com/Martin_Dahinden/status/984800784985526272


https://twitter.com/Swiss_Pavilion/status/897444359389552642


https://twitter.com/SwissCGNY/status/972158044732837888

https://twitter.com/BF_Nordics/status/987253273471184899


Ireland Vol.29 (Economy, et al. – institutes of technology, counties, chambers, LEOs, et al.)

Carlow


Wexford


Waterford


Cork


Sligo


Galway


Clare


Limerick


https://twitter.com/LimerickIT/status/971427484473413632


Kerry


Ireland Vol.28 (Economy, et al. – institutes of technology/universities, counties/cities, chambers, LEOs, et al.)

Donegal


https://twitter.com/DonegalMaps/status/974600619494428672


Louth


Kildare


Westmeath


County Dublin
Fingal


https://twitter.com/itbdublin/status/973148534311718912


https://twitter.com/DubBayPrawnFest/status/975705046628302848


South Dublin


Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown


City of Dublin


https://twitter.com/ucddublin/status/973959143055872001
https://twitter.com/DublinCityUni/status/976458468319285248


MISCELLANEOUS


Ireland Vol.27 (St. Patrick’s Day, et al. – universities/institutes of technology, counties/cities, chambers, airports, et al.)

Carlow


Clare


Cork


https://twitter.com/UCC/status/974663665503948800


Donegal


Galway


Limerick


https://twitter.com/UL/status/974720446955483138


Louth


Waterford


Westmeath


https://twitter.com/AthloneIT/status/974977569161469952
County Dublin
Fingal


https://twitter.com/Fingalcoco/status/975009841008861185


South Dublin


Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown


City of Dublin


https://twitter.com/DublinAirport/status/974631661114744832