Category: Global Economy

West Virginia Vol.3 (West Virginia University)

https://twitter.com/WestVirginiaU/status/1136630822394458112


https://twitter.com/WestVirginiaU/status/1118904771212140544


https://twitter.com/WestVirginiaU/status/1092802778815258627


https://twitter.com/wvuccobe/status/1092481689702535168


https://twitter.com/WVUEberly/status/1136712864075567105


https://twitter.com/WVUEberly/status/1134112981690724352
https://twitter.com/WVUEberly/status/1133768210266939394


https://twitter.com/WVUEberly/status/1131954510870409216
https://twitter.com/WVUEberly/status/1131609989225897991


https://twitter.com/WVUEberly/status/1129463092193030144
https://twitter.com/WVUEberly/status/1129434655332216832


https://twitter.com/WVUEberly/status/1128695786756349952


https://twitter.com/WVUEberly/status/1125518097979514880
https://twitter.com/WVUEberly/status/1117871714665402369


https://twitter.com/WVUEberly/status/1116435500082929666


https://twitter.com/WVUEberly/status/1113088194097152003


https://twitter.com/WVUEberly/status/1109468593375215617


Australia Vol.17 (2019 federal election)

House of Representatives – who is leading? | @AusElectoralCom
2019 federal election boundaries map (w PDFs) | @AusElectoralCom
Infosheet 8 – Elections for the House of Representatives | Parliament of Australia
Senate Results | @ABCNews
How the Senate result is determined | @AusElectoralCom
Senate elections | Parliament of Australia

DELIVERING OUR PLAN | @LiberalAus
Our Plan – BUILDING OUR ECONOMY. SECURING YOUR FUTURE. | Liberal National Party
PLAN FOR A STRONGER REGIONAL AUSTRALIA – The Nationals’ heart is in the country and the coast. | @The_Nationals
OUR PLAN | @CountryLibs
Liberal Party’s Scott Morrison re-elected as Australian Prime Minister (Video; 05/18/2019) | @globalnews
Scott Morrison goes from accidental Prime Minister to homespun hero in election 2019 (05/20/2019) | Andrew Probyn @ABCNews
cf. Australia Vol.4 (Coalition – Liberal Party of Australia, Liberal National Party of Queensland, National Party of Australia, Country Liberal Party (NT) – 2016 Election Policies)
Malcolm Turnbull Election Night Speech 2016 (YouTube)
Tony Abbott Speech – 2013 Campaign Launch (YouTube)

Excerpts are on our own.
Australia’s conservatives relish unexpected 3rd term win (05/18/2019) | @reuters,@CBC
… The White House said Trump and Morrison spoke by phone and “pledged to continue their close cooperation on shared priorities.” Morrison told raucously cheering supporters late on Saturday, who just hours earlier had seemed resigned to defeat, that he had always believed in miracles. …
… Morrison, however, cast himself as the candidate who would work for aspirational voters and the tactic seemed to strike a chord. A Pentecostal church-goer, Morrison took over as prime minister last year when he emerged as the unexpected winner of infighting within the Liberal party…
… The government campaigned on a platform of tax cuts and stability, while Labor promised to reduce inequality through tax reform, higher wages, better public infrastructure and faster action on climate change. Fitch Ratings said in a note the result would bring policy continuity, including the coalition’s pledge to start delivering budget surpluses next financial year. …
Here are the winning stocks in Australia as Morrison takes victory at the elections (05/20/2019) | @CNBC
… Bank, coal miners, property and healthcare stocks jumped, pushing the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index to an 11-year high, after opening 1.7% higher and hitting its highest intraday level since 2007. …
… Yancoal Australia surged 5.7%, New Hope jumped about 4%, and Whitehaven Coal rose about 2%…
… Shares of Australia’s biggest lender Commonwealth Bank of Australia jumped about 6% and National Australia Bank surged 6.63%. Australia and New Zealand Banking Group also rose 6.46%, while Westpac soared 7.16%. …
… Property classified ads company REA Group was up 7% and shares of its rival, Domain Holdings Australia, rose 3% in early trade. Construction firm Lendlease Group bounced about 1%, while property developer Stockland jumped over 4.5%.
… Shares of the country’s biggest private health insurer Medibank Private were up 10%, while smaller NIB Holdings was up 9%…
What a Labor Victory Might Mean for Australian Foreign Policy (01/31/2019) | @elenacollinson @CFR_org
… In October 2016, Shorten declared Trump “entirely unsuitable to be leader of the free world,” having earlier that year described Trump’s policies as “barking mad.” In January 2017, Shorten called the new president’s policy barring visitors from several Muslim-majority from entering the United States “appalling.”…
… But any rift this may cause between the two countries is likely to be superficial. Shorten and the senior members of his shadow cabinet have articulated an “unshakeable” commitment to the U.S.-Australia alliance, terming it a “pillar” of the ALP’s foreign policy vision and “central to Australia’s strategic interests.”…
… With respect to China, there is no immediate indication that the ALP’s approach will differ significantly from that of the current government. Criticisms from Labor of the government’s handling of the Australia-China relationship have predominantly centred on rhetoric, variously characterizing it as “disjointed megaphone diplomacy,” “Chinaphobic” and “unwise and provocative,”…
…a ban on foreign political donations, and the decision to block Chinese companies Huawei and ZTE from involvement in the rollout of Australia’s 5G network. Labor has also been supportive of strategies to balance China’s regional rise, actively engaging in the push to forge closer ties with Pacific nations, and articulating a strong commitment to the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. There is also general consensus between the two major parties… the Australian government is handling the mass internment of an estimated one million Uighurs and other Muslim minorities in Xinjiang “the appropriate way” by enunciating Canberra’s concerns “very clear publicly and privately” but not immediately…
Shorten has also rejected the notion of “pre-emptively framing China as a strategic threat,” placing some distance between the Labor Party’s proposed China policy and the more adversarial posture toward China reflected in the U.S. National Security and National Defense Strategies and amplified in Vice President Mike Pence’s tough speech…
Two areas of potential difference in a Labor-led China policy may be on Australian strategy in the South China Sea and participation in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). …
One priority in Labor’s overall Asia strategy is to deepen economic ties with Indonesia, one of Australia’s most important, and often contentious, bilateral relationships. …
…in 2017, there is bipartisan support for the Australian foreign policy white paper released that year. The white paper, Australia’s first in fourteen years, examines the shifting power dynamics in the Indo-Pacific region, with a particular focus on the challenges presented by China’s rise…

Federal election 2019: What a Coalition win means for you, major policies explained: Scott Morrison’s stunning win saw the Coalition remain in government, but some changes are still coming soon. Here’s what you need to know. (w Video; 05/20/2019) | @9NewsAUS
Former Liberal Party leader: How Morrison won Australian elections (Video; 05/20/2019) | @CNBC
Working-Class Voters Deliver a Win for Conservatives in Australia (05/19/2019) | @NRO
Five Things To Know About Australia’s Election Results: As the country attempts to get its head around what happened last night, we are offering up a few bite-sized takeaways to get you through a day of political small talk. (19/05/2019) | @vice
What Scott Morrison’s win means for Australian investors (18/05/2019) | Katarina Taurian @NestEggAU
Why China is not celebrating the unexpected Australian election result (05/20/2019) | John Lee @CNN
Australia’s conservative party retains power in shocking election result (05/19/2019) | Rachel Withers @vox
How did they get it so wrong? Polling companies explain what happened after predicting a Labor win for THREE YEARS (20/05/2019) | DANIEL PIOTROWSKI and STEPHEN JOHNSON @dailymailuk
10 key lessons from Australia’s poll-defying election results (05/20/2019) | @washingtonpost
4 things to know about Australia’s contentious election: After years of dysfunction, will conservatives get the boot? (w Video; 05/17/2019) | Eric Kleefeld @vox
2019 Federal Election Preview (12/05/2019) | @OddscheckerAu
Morrison’s Allies Retain Power in Most-Populous Australian State (03/23/2019) | Jason Scott and Jackie Edwards @bpolitics
FactCheck: has Australia’s net debt doubled under the current government? (08/06/2018) | Mark Crosby @ConversationEDU

Labor’s Policies For A Fair Go For Australia | @AustralianLabor
LABOR’S FISCAL PLAN (PDF) | @AustralianLabor
How Australian Labor lost ‘the unlosable election’ (Audio) | Rebecca Huntley @abcconvos
How did the Liberal National Party win over voters in Queensland? (YouTube) | @ABCNews
Bill Shorten quits as Labor leader after loss (YouTube) | @9NewsAUS
What the left can learn from Australian Labor: By combining radical economics with patriotism, the party has made itself the favourite to win this May’s general election. (16/01/2019) | Adrian Pabst @NewStatesman
cf. Australia Vol.12 (Queensland)
We’re building a future for all of us | @Greens
Swing of 2.6% will give the Greens a dominant role on Senate crossbench: Adam Bandt comfortably re-elected in Melbourne but party fails to make gains in the lower house (19/05/2019) | @Paul_Karp @guardian
The rise of the Australian Greens (22/09/2008) | Scott Bennett @ Politics and Public Administration Section @ Parliament of Australia
cf. Australia Vol.3 (Australian Labor Party’s 10 Year Plan for Australia’s Economy; AUSTRALIAN GREENS ELECTION PLATFORM 2016)
Election 2016: Bill Shorten’s full campaign launch speech (YouTube)
Kevin Rudd’s Labor campaign launch speech (YouTube; 2013)
Julia Gillard Campaign Launch (YouTube; 2010)

Excerpts are on our own.
Australian election: Labor’s humiliating defeat – why it fell apart for Bill Shorten – ANALYSIS (19/05/2019) | Malcolm Farr @nzherald
… Bill Shorten’s attempt to parlay six years of Labor unity and preparation into a victory formula has failed, with Queensland bringing it undone. …
… Scott Morrison has established himself as a fierce political street brawler who surprised Labor with his energy, his aggression, and his read of the electorate. …
… As Liberal John Hewson found in 1993, Labor’s Bill Shorten has learned in 2019: Being a reformer exposes you to misrepresentation by an opponent unencumbered by fresh direction. …
… It should also be acknowledged his departure makes life easier for Morrison, who will not have to keep looking over his shoulder at creeping Abbott ambitions. … “It’s also clear that in at least some of what might be described as ‘wealthy seats’, we are doing it tough, and the Green left is doing better.”
…few political operative were able to pander to the desires for simplistic certainties, like Pauline Hanson and Clive Palmer. @OneNationAus and @UnitedAusParty were crucial in regional Queensland results. …
Tanya Plibersek’s disastrous comment that cost Labor Queensland: Tanya Plibersek has been slammed over a remark she made in the lead-up to the election, which may have cost her party the crucial state of Queensland. (05/20/2019) | @gavindfernando @newscomauHQ
…she was out there denigrating the coal industry and saying it will phase out,” he told Sky News. “To say that on the eve of the election, in which there are six marginal seats in North Queensland in the coal belt, was absolutely disastrous. …
… The seats Mr Katter refers to are Peter Dutton’s northern Brisbane seat of Dickson, George Christensen’s marginal seat of Dawson, the Townsville-based seat of Herbert, as well as Flynn, Capricornia and Leichhardt. …
… The Labor Party was dealt a crushing blow in Queensland, with its vote falling to just 27.4 per cent…
… Last month, she told the ABC that Australians “can’t rely on an Indian mining company to bring jobs to central and north Queensland”. Prime Minister Scott Morrison slammed her over the remarks, comparing her to former NSW Labor leader Michael Daley. Mr Daley infamously accused Asians of taking Australian jobs during the NSW state election in March, before he went on to lose the vote. …
… “We needed to make it clear that if it was able to do so, that of course Labor would welcome the investment and jobs,” Mr Fitzgibbon said. The Hunter MP, who suffered a big swing against him towards One Nation’s pro-coal candidate, also said the party had drifted too far to the left. …
… Liberal senator Eric Abetz said the impact of the debate around Adani went beyond Queensland, into his own state of Tasmania. “Adani was seen … as an indication that the Labor Party was deserting its grassroots and the workers in favour of the suburban city elite…


https://twitter.com/HillelNeuer/status/1129888752183185408


UK Vol.129 (Post-EUref #Brexit Vol.47: Bank of England)

EU withdrawal scenarios and monetary and financial stability: A response to the House of Commons Treasury Committee (w PDF; 28/11/2018) | Bank of England
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/report/2018/eu-withdrawal-scenarios-and-monetary-and-financial-stability

The below excerpt is on our own.

PDF
Executive Summary
Analytical Foundations
… This analysis includes scenarios not forecasts. The scenarios illustrate what could happen, not necessarily what is most likely to happen under a range of key assumptions. …
… The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) and Financial Policy Committee (FPC) have reviewed the relevant scenarios…
Key Economic Relationships
The impact of Brexit will depend on the direction, magnitude and speed of the effect of reduced openness on the UK economy.
Direction: The direction of the effects of a reduction in openness is clear: a weakening in both supply and demand, a lower exchange rate and higher inflation. …
Magnitude: The magnitude of the economic impact of the underlying assumptions is modelled using established empirical economic relationships. …
Speed of adjustment: Given the lack of precedents, there is uncertainty over the speed of adjustment to reduced openness. Empirical studies generally examine the effects of trade integration. …

  • …it is likely that the corporate sector is generally not yet well equipped to cope were the UK to leave the EU without a transition period.
  • The experience of New Zealand as it de-integrated from the UK following the loss of Commonwealth preferences in 1973.

Scenarios
… i) as the path the economy is currently on, represented by the MPC’s most recent, November 2018, forecast; or ii) as the path the economy was on prior to the EU referendum, represented by the MPC’s May 2016 forecast.
Economic Partnership under the Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration
No Deal No Transition Scenarios
… To assess the ability of the banking system to continue lending to households and businesses in the most adverse outcomes, the FPC has compared the scenario that banks were tested against in this year’s annual stress test with a worst-case scenario that could be associated with a ‘no deal no transition’ Brexit. …
p7 Charts A, B and C
Maintaining Monetary Stability
Maintaining Financial Stability
… The severity of the UK economic stress in the 2018 stress test which the major UK banks have passed is significantly greater than the economic scenario for Brexit based on ‘worst case’ assumptions (see Chart D). …

1 EU Withdrawal and the Bank of England’s objectives
1.1 Monetary stability
 … The MPC’s remit isto set monetary policy to achieve the Government’s target of keeping inflation at 2%. …
1.2 Financial stability
 … The Prudential Regulatory Authority (PRA) … Financial Market Infrastructures (FMIs) …
2 Analytical foundations
2.1 Framework
2.2 Assumptions needed to characterise Brexit
2.2.1 Trade barriers
Chart 2.2.1: EU trade barriers over time show the rising importance of non-tariff barriers
2.2.2 Tariffs
… A simple unweighted average of EU MFN tariff rates was 5.7% in 2016. The trade-weighted-average MFN tariff rate, with weights given by the share of each good imported in overall imports, was lower ? at 3.2 per cent, as shown in Chart 2.2.1.
2.2.3 Non-tariff barriers
… NTBs include ‘at the border’ measures such as customs checks, including for compliance with rules of origin requirements. They also include ‘behind the border’ measures such as regulatory barriers and product standards. These include sanitary and phytosanitary rules (e.g. restrictions for substances, hygienic requirements, measures for preventing dissemination of disease and related to food safety), technical barriers to trade (e.g. labelling and certification), non-technical measures such as measures to protect intellectual property and rules on public procurement…
… ad-valorem tariff equivalent (AVE) of NTBs …
…find that the average AVE of NTBs can be as high as 48%, and find that existing NTBs almost double the level of trade restrictiveness imposed by tariffs…
2.2.4 Third country and new trade deals by virtue of EU membership
2.2.5 Preparedness for EU withdrawal
… The extent of disruption at the border and to transport and financial services will depend on the extent of preparations made in advance by firms and in critical infrastructure. HMRC estimates that between 145,000 and 250,000 trading firms who have not previously completed a customs declaration will need to do so in the event of no deal. …
… A Confederation of British Industry (CBI) survey found that 41% of companies had carried out some of their contingency plans…
… A CBI survey suggests that nearly 44% of businesses are planning to stockpile goods in the future, while 15% have already done so. Consistent with this, the Bank’s Agents report only limited stockbuilding so far, with many firms planning to do so through Q4 and in the New Year. A study by the Centre of Economics and Business Research (CEBR) estimated that three months’ worth of stockpiled raw material and semi-manufactures usually imported from the EU, plus one month’s worth of finished manufactures, would require ￡34bn in additional imports before 29 March.
Box 2A: UK companies’ preparedness for EU withdrawal: evidence from the Bank’s Agents
2.2.6 Impact of Brexit on financial conditions
2.2.7 Impact of Brexit on uncertainty and view of future prospects
2.2.8 Response of macroeconomic and macroprudential policy
…the UK Countercyclical Capital Buffer (CCyB)…
2.2.9 Migration policy
2.3 Established empirical relationships
2.3.1 Estimating the impact on trade of alternative trade arrangements using a gravity model
… The models bear out two clear empirical regularities that trade between two countries depends positively on their size and negatively on the distance between them. To take an example from a recent OBR Discussion Paper, the UK’s trade with India is almost six times as large as the UK’s trade with Pakistan; while the two countries are both similar distances from the UK, Pakistan has a smaller economy than India. India’s economy is of roughly similar size to that of Italy, but because Italy is much closer, the UK’s trade with Italy is twice as large as that with India (trade between Italy and the UK will also have benefited from mutual membership of the EU).
…leaving the EU will decrease trade between the UK and EU members but, over time, it will also make the UK relatively less isolated from other countries, partially offsetting the reduction in trade from leaving the EU.
2.3.2 The economic relationship between trade openness and productivity
… That increases the incentive for firms to innovate (Grossman and Helpman, 1991, Aghion and Howitt, 1998), especially for more productive firms (Aghion et al., 2018). …
… Mayer, Melitz and Ottaviano (2016) show how increases in demand from key foreign markets led French exporters to focus their export sales towards their best performing products and expand the range of products sold. …
2.3.3 The economic relationship between foreign direct investment and productivity
… For instance, foreign ownership of a firm is associated with higher labour productivity. Recent work by the ONS (2017) shows that the productivity of the average UK firm involved in FDI activities was around three times higher than that of firms not involved in FDI in 2015. …
… Empirical evidence of such effects in the UK can be found in Haskel et al. (2007), who find that there are foreign investment ‘spillovers’ to domestically-owned firms in the same industry. …
2.3.4 Estimates of the impact of a reduction in trade openness and lower FDI on productivity
… For example, Barattieri, Cacciatore, and Ghironi (2018) show how tariffs reallocate production toward less efficient domestic producers, lowering aggregate productivity, as well as lowering investment in physical capital and the production of new varieties of products. …
… Feyrer (2009b)… Felbermayr and Groschl (2013) …the 0.16 to 0.74% range…
… Pain and Young (2004) estimate significantly larger long-run effects, with a 1% increase in the stock of FDI increasing productivity by 0.32% in the UK manufacturing and distribution sector, and 0.13% in the financial services sector. …
Taking the trade and FDI effects together…based on an estimate that a 1% fall in openness eventually reduces productivity by 0.3%.
2.3.5 The speed of impact from a reduction in openness
…the reduction in trade flows associated with leaving a trading arrangement, and their eventual impact on productivity, are similar in magnitude to the effects of lowering trade barriers. …
More uncertain is the timing of such effects. … Baier et al (2014) …
… As discussed in Box 2C, Commonwealth countries lost their preferential access to UK markets in 1973, when the United Kingdom joined the European Economic Community (EEC). …once new trade barriers came in, the level of exports fell very quickly, and this rapidly fed through to economic growth and investment.
Box 2B: The impact of EU withdrawal on sectors and supply capacity
Box 2C: New Zealand trade after 1973: a case study of trade disruption
2.3.6 Using empirical relationships to model the further economic impact of these changes in trading relationships
Openness and the exchange rate
Uncertainty and spending decisions
Economic and Financial conditions
… Cloyne et al. (2015). …the impact of changes in credit conditions and financial yields on the behaviour of households, firms and the financial sector. …
House prices
Relative economic performance and migration
The ONS’ latest principal population projection is based on an assumed path for net inward migration to the UK that declines from around +250k per year in 2016 to +165k per year from 2023. …
Box 2D: Tariff and exchange rate effects by sector of the CPI basket
3 Scenarios
… Sterling fell sharply immediately following the referendum, and remains 18% below its 2015 peak before the referendum was called. This has pushed inflation above target, and squeezed household incomes as a result. At the same time, Brexit-related uncertainty has depressed investment and held back productivity growth. …
3.1 Scenarios in which the UK and EU implement the Economic Partnership
..two variants of the Economic Partnership, labelled as ‘Close Economic Partnership’ and ‘Less Close Economic Partnership’, which form the top and bottom of a range of possible characteristics of the Economic Partnership. …
3.1.1 Assumptions underpinning the Economic Partnership scenarios
The two scenarios… share assumptions on migration and the way in which policy is set.
Table 3.1.1: Key assumptions
3.1.2 Modelling the effects of these assumptions on the economy
Table 3.1.2: Key economic relationships
3.1.3 Overall impact
… The level of GDP is between 1?% and 3?% lower than the May 2016 trend by end-2023. Relative to the November 2018 Inflation Report projection, by end-2023 it is 1?% higher in the Close scenario, and ?% lower in the Less Close scenario. …
Chart 3.1.1: Range of GDP outcomes in Economic Partnership scenarios
Chart 3.1.2: Range of unemployment outcomes in Economic Partnership scenarios
Chart 3.1.3: Range of inflation outcomes in Economic Partnership scenarios
3.2 Worst case macroeconomic scenarios for assessing UK financial system resilience
… A more testing scenario would be a Brexit scenario with a cliff-edge in March 2019 ? a “no deal with no transition” outcome. …
…the FPC has considered the particular risks that could arise if the UK’s relationship with the EU were to move abruptly to default World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules without an implementation period. …
3.2.1 Macroeconomic scenarios for a Brexit with no deal and no transition
Table 3.2.1: Summary of assumptions made in “No deal, no transition” scenario
3.2.2 Assumptions in no transition no deal scenarios
3.2.3 Additional assumptions for the disorderly Brexit scenario
Table 3.2.2: Key economic relationships which generate the economic outcomes
Table 3.2.3: Comparison of Brexit scenarios with no agreement and no implementation period with other stress episodes
Chart 3.2.1: Range of GDP outcomes in no deal, no transition scenarios
Chart 3.2.1: Range of unemployment outcomes in no transition no deal scenarios
Chart 3.2.2: Range of inflation outcomes in no transition no deal scenarios
4 Maintaining monetary stability
4.1 Demand
4.2 Supply
4.3 Exchange rate and tariffs
4.4 Implications for monetary policy
5 Managing the Ongoing Risks to Financial Stability
5.1 The UK is Home to the World’s Leading International Financial Centre
5.2 Managing risks of a No deal and No Implementation Period scenario
… The 2018 stress test (ACS) shows that the UK banking system is resilient to deep simultaneous recessions in the UK and global economies that are more severe overall than the global financial crisis, large falls in asset prices and a separate stress of misconduct costs. …
In the ACS, UK GDP falls by 4 3/4 %, the UK unemployment rate rises to 9 1/2 %, UK residential property prices fall by 33% and UK commercial real estate prices fall by 40%. The scenario also includes a sudden loss of overseas investor appetite for UK assets, a 27% fall in the sterling exchange rate index and Bank Rate rising to 4% (Table 3.2.3). …
Table 3.2.3: Outcomes in disorderly ‘no transition no deal’ scenario and 2018 ACS stress test
Chart 5.2.1: Comparison of the impact of the disorderly Brexit scenario and 2018 ACS on major UK banks’ capital ratios
5.3 Financial Stability Implications of an Implementation Period
… As regulator for the largest financial sector in the EU, the Bank of England has advised and supported the UK Government in the EU legislative processes and influenced the EU authorities in the development of binding technical standards. The Bank has played an active role in the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB).
During the Implementation Period, the UK will not be a member of, or have a regular voice in, the main supervisory cooperation structures – the European Supervisory Authorities…
5.4 Declaration on the Economic Partnership
5.4.1 Equivalence as the basis of the future partnership on financial services
… The Northern Ireland backstop incorporates no provision for the regulation of financial services. The position after the Implementation Period will therefore depend on whether any specific arrangements on financial services have been agreed. Absent such an agreement, WTO rules for financial services would apply. …
… The White Paper ‘The future relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union’ (“the White Paper”) …
…maintaining cross-border activity through equivalence provisions would require the UK and EU regulatory regimes to produce sufficiently similar outcomes on an ongoing basis. There could, over time, be pressure for the UK to maintain a closer alignment to the EU than it would otherwise choose in order to maintain equivalence. At one extreme this could result in the UK becoming a de facto rule-taker. …

Appendix A Impact on the UK economy of a transition to WTO
A.1 Assumptions underpinning the transition to WTO scenarios
A.2 Modelling the effects of these assumptions on the economy
A.3 Overall impact
Appendix B External studies of the impact of Brexit
B.1 The impact of Brexit on the UK economy to date
B.2 Estimates of the long-run impact of Brexit
Appendix C Scenario assumptions

———————————-

UK should leave EU with no deal, says former Bank of England governor: Mervyn King says Britain could ease ‘dislocation costs’ with six months of planning (29/03/2019) | @RJPartington @guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/29/uk-should-leave-eu-with-no-deal-says-former-bank-of-england-governor?CMP=share_btn_tw

Bank of England says no-deal Brexit would be worse than 2008 crisis: Bank warns of immediate economic crash, GDP to fall by 8%, unemployment to rise to 7.5% (28/11/2018) | @RJPartington @guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/nov/28/bank-of-england-says-no-deal-brexit-would-be-worse-than-2008-crisis

Bank of England leaves interest rates on hold as UK braces for no-deal Brexit – as it happened (22/03/2019) | @guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2019/mar/21/bank-of-england-brexit-uk-retail-sales-sterling-business-live

Bank of England governor warns no-deal Brexit could cause recession – as it happened (08/02/2019) | @guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2019/feb/07/bank-of-england-brexit-interest-rates-mark-carney-business-live

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-1607881/When-UK-rates-rise.html

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-07/boe-cuts-forecasts-says-brexit-damage-to-economy-has-risen

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/07/bank-of-england-interest-rate-decision-amid-brexit-uncertainty.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/24/bank-of-england-brexit-preparing-since-the-vote-to-leave-carney.html

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-bank-of-england-would-be-doing-if-it-werent-for-brexit-2019-02-06


Seafood Vol.3 (Mackerel, Spanish mackerel, Horse mackerel, Pacific saury, Sardine, Anchovy)


Australia Vol.16 / Meat Vol.2

Australia's food and nutrition 2012: in brief (full publication;Australia2 beef-exportsAustralia2' beef export 2017Australia2'' beef carcass Asia exportAustralia3 beef production states 2017Australia4 sheep-population 2011Australia4' lamb exports
https://twitter.com/LambandBeef/status/1102131855971831808
https://twitter.com/LambandBeef/status/1103258883664023552


https://twitter.com/HumeBrophy/status/1011998745507123200


https://twitter.com/dfat/status/1080294113126297600


Wine Vol.1

Wine1 export-countries 2017Wine2 Production_CountryWine3 countries_drink_mostWine4 trade_us_europeWine5 Import country 2013Wine6 produce US_states 2014
https://twitter.com/RealWineGuru/status/1101872630934761472


https://twitter.com/ManettiVino/status/1053668925614030848


https://twitter.com/ItalyinUS/status/1005140606589505538


Meat Vol.1 (Beef Vol.1)

Beef1 meat importsBeef2 Exports Ranking CountriesBeef3 EU exportsBeef4 EU importsBeef5 Japan importsBeef6 Korea importsBeef7 southeast-asia importsBeef8 China imports


https://twitter.com/Georgemorethan/status/1099782605535363072


https://twitter.com/anchormarket/status/1101214940596191232
https://twitter.com/FlorSpecht_/status/1098965610971742208


https://twitter.com/HelloFreshCA/status/1101633248751427585

https://twitter.com/BrainVote/status/970741147172851713


Germany Vol.11 (Conglomerate / Manufacturing – Siemens)


https://twitter.com/Siemens/status/1092065205885038593


https://twitter.com/Siemens/status/1076106041971089408


https://twitter.com/ParkElectrical/status/1072142406026477568


Massachusetts Vol.4 (corporations)

Massachusetts4 countyMassachusetts6 citiesMassachusetts5 coloniesMassachusetts7 Köppen


U.S. National Liberal Arts Colleges Vol.1


Germany Vol.8 (Finance)


Germany Vol.7 (Finance)


https://twitter.com/BMF_Bund/status/1005426954454163456


France Vol.10 (Automobile)

France33 2011 PSAFrance34 CorriDoorFrance35 NissanAuchanFrance36 EUproject


https://twitter.com/GroupePSA_EN/status/1072854337574064129


https://twitter.com/GroupePSA_EN/status/1068150992494039047
https://twitter.com/GroupePSA_EN/status/1067448086241443845


https://twitter.com/Groupe_Renault/status/1072131572587995137


France Vol.4 (Finance)

France7 13-Regions


https://twitter.com/BF_Nordics/status/1070979469190545410
https://twitter.com/TheVolawatcher/status/1069666244113129473


France Vol.3 (Finance)

France4
France3 chemical-parks
France2 resources_1972
France1 Paris


https://twitter.com/EIB/status/991974269675597826


Texas Vol.7 (Rice University)


2018 Nobel Economic Sciences Laureates (Professors William Nordhaus and Paul Romer) Vol.4

William D. Nordhaus | @nberpubs
William D. Nordhaus | IDEAS @stlouisfed
Revisiting the social cost of carbon (02/14/2017) | William D. Nordhaus @PNASNews
Climate Clubs: How to Prevent Free-Riding in International Environmental Agreements (Fall 2014) | Dr. William Nordhaus, Yale University @theNASEM
Views of William Nordhaus on Carbon Pricing | Carbon-Price.com
Paul M. Romer | @nberpubs
Paul Michael Romer | IDEAS @stlouisfed
The Politically Incorrect Guide to Ending Poverty: In the 1990s, Paul Romer revolutionized economics. In the aughts, he became rich as a software entrepreneur. Now he’s trying to help the poorest countries grow rich—by convincing them to establish foreign-run “charter cities” within their borders. Romer’s idea is unconventional, even neo-colonial—the best analogy is Britain’s historic lease of Hong Kong. And against all odds, he just might make it happen. (July/August 2010) | SEBASTIAN MALLABY @TheAtlantic
Paul Romer: Why the world needs charter cities (08/24/2009) | @TEDTalks
Paul Romer: A Theory of History, with an Application (05/18/2009) | @longnow


2018 Nobel Economic Sciences Laureates (Professors William Nordhaus and Paul Romer) Vol.3


https://twitter.com/abhishekn/status/1049470877044101120


https://twitter.com/delong/status/596820309816123394


2018 Nobel Economic Sciences Laureates (Professors William Nordhaus and Paul Romer) Vol.2


https://twitter.com/AustinFrerick/status/939899975110217728


2018 Nobel Economic Sciences Laureates (Professors William Nordhaus and Paul Romer) Vol.1