US Policy Changes Vol.98 (Foreign Policy Vol.14: Turkey’s lira crisis)

Excerpts are on our own.

Trump Is the First President to Get Turkey Right: Good riddance to the so-called strategic relationship between Washington and Ankara. (08/13/2018) | STEVEN A. COOK @ForeignPolicy
… Then there is the detention of Pastor Andrew Brunson in Turkey since October 2016. This has become a flashpoint between the two countries this summer, especially after Ankara seemed to renege on a deal for his release. But Turkey is also holding between 15 and 20 U.S.-Turkish dual citizens—including a NASA scientist—on trumped-up terrorism charges. Three Turkish employees of the U.S. Embassy have also been arrested. They are being used as bargaining chips to force the United States to hand over Fethullah Gulen, a green card holder who Ankara accuses of masterminding the failed July 2016 coup, and/or to secure the release of a Turkish banker convicted in a New York court of aiding the elaborate scheme to help Tehran get around multilateral sanctions. …
Of course, the United States has an interest in a healthy Turkish economy, if only to prevent the meltdown of the lira from affecting other emerging markets’ currencies. … …Albayrak plans to pursue fiscal discipline, help companies most affected by the lira’s slide, and, contrary to rumors, the government will not seize foreign exchange deposits — good news for foreign investors. At the same, the minister stated that the volatility of the lira was unsupported by the underlying economic data, thus it is clear Turkey is under “attack by the biggest player of the global financial system.” He means the United States.
… Since at least 2013, Erdogan has been telling Turks that when the day of reckoning comes for the Turkish economy, it will be someone else’s fault. If Turks are suffering, then it could not possibly be the responsibility of a government led by someone who believes high interest rates cause inflation (which is exactly backward), but rather the result of the nefarious machinations of the “interest lobby,” Zionists, and the always useful “foreign forces.” Because Erdogan has made the economy a nationalist issue, seeking help from the IMF is politically risky. …encourage his constituents to exchange dollars and euros into lira. …
… It should be clear by now that there is no strategic relationship. Turkey and the United States have different interests and priorities. The lists of grievances on both sides reflects that fact. The fallout is not a function of the unique personalities and worldviews of the American and Turkish presidents, but rather at a fundamental level is the result of a changing world in which Washington and Ankara no longer share a common threat. …
… Perhaps the controversy over Pastor Brunson and the way the Turkish government has responded to the lira crisis will be a clarifying moment, highlighting what should be clear by now: Turkey is no longer an ally or partner.

Capital Outflows and Sudden Stop (w Report; 08/14/2018) | @medium
…which kinds of capital inflow stop during the period? In the 2017 World Bank policy paper “Are capital flows fickle? Increasingly ? and does the answer still depend on type? ” Barry Eichengreen, Poonam Gupta, and Oliver Masetti have tried to investigate how different kinds of capital flows behave during a sudden stop. …
The most rapid capital outflow, however, is in that the authors categorized as ”Others.” Included in others are flows through the banking sector (loans, deposits and banking capital), loans raised by the private sector, and trade credits. …

Erdogan Faces a Challenge He Can’t Easily Bully: Turkey’s Economy (08/13/2018) | Carlotta Gall @nytimes
… “The interest-rate hikes and budget cuts will be painful,” said Atilla Yesilada, an Istanbul-based consultant at Global Source Partners…
“It is the fundamental view of the true populist,” explained Sinan Ulgen, chairman of the Istanbul-based Center for Economic and Foreign Policy Studies, also known as E.D.A.M. …
Turkey has always had a strong bureaucracy, modeled on the French system, with a senior bureaucrat, called an undersecretary, in every ministry, assisted by deputy undersecretaries. Those positions have been eliminated and the civil servant positions replaced with deputy ministers appointed by Mr. Erdogan. …
…the polarizing nature of Mr. Erdogan’s rule, which has increasingly pushed out people who are seen as ideologically or politically opposed to his Justice and Development Party…
…the purges of 150,000 public employees since the failed coup of 2016. …
Mr. Albayrak, 40, holds an M.B.A. from Pace University in New York, and worked as the United States representative for Calik Holdings, a Turkish construction and trading company known for its close links to the government.
… Mr. Yesilada called for a hefty interest rate hike of at least 5 percentage points and said that a “handshake with the United States is an absolute minimum.” …

European bank CDS showing no contagion (PDF; 13/08/2018) | @CanaccorGenuity
… Turkish debt-to-GDP is about half of what Greece’s was at the beginning of the European Debt Crisis. The fear in the marketplace is that the historic drop in the Turkish lire makes non-Turkish debt unaffordable to service, which could lead to a contagion effect on European banks with significant exposure to Turkey. …
… The Turkish currency crisis provides an excellent excuse for a temporary pullback, but thus far has shown no reason for us to adopt a more intermediate-term defensive position.

How serious is Turkey’s lira crisis and what are the implications?: The options as the country’s economic growth displays the classic signs of overheating (13/08/2018) | Larry Elliott @guardian
… now displaying the classic signs of overheating: a large trade deficit, a construction boom and soaring debt. Financial markets have taken fright at inflation, rising at an annual rate of more than 15%, and have been selling the Turkish lira, which is down by 45% against the US dollar since the start of the year. …
The direct impact of what looks like an inevitable recession in Turkey would be relatively small because, despite a population of 80 million and strong growth in recent years, the country accounts for only 1% of global GDP. …
… Turkey’s problems are particularly acute because it has more than $300bn of dollar-denominated corporate debt, which is getting more expensive to finance by the day. However, other countries – such as Mexico and South Africa – also took advantage of low US interest rates in the years after the financial crisis to borrow heavily in dollars and saw their currencies coming under pressure. …
… only two things will halt the lira sell-off: a substantial rise in official interest rates (already above 17%) or the announcement of an emergency package of financial support from the International Monetary Fund – or, if things continue to deteriorate, both together. …

What the Turkish lira crisis means for President Erdogan’s hold on power: Erdoğan built his supporter base by promising economic stability. Can he withstand a crisis? (14/08/2018) | YÖRÜK BAHÇELI @NewStatesman
… Erdoğan is known to have been opposed to higher interest rates throughout his leadership, labelling them “the mother and father of all evil” dictated by an “interest rate lobby”. In his earlier years, however, officials around him were able to convince him to allow them to act in line with market demands, while he was also bound by IMF requirements. But once IMF programmes came to an end and interest rates fell following the great recession, Erdoğan was able to become more vocal and staunch in his opposition to higher rates. …

Russia backs non-dollar trade with Turkey, no promise of help amid lira crisis (w Video; 08/15/2018) | Andrey Ostroukh and Tuvan Gumrukcu @reuters @YahooFinance
… “I am confident that the grave abuse of the role of the U.S. dollar as a global reserve currency will result over time in the weakening and demise of its role,” Lavrov said, echoing statements made by President Vladimir Putin.
However, Lavrov did not announce any immediate commitment to drop the dollar in trade with Turkey or provide it with financial aid, leaving observers guessing if the two countries, both hit by U.S. sanctions, have agreed on any bilateral deal.
“They will likely just give warm words to Turkey, looking to exploit the situation and stir things up for the U.S. and the West,” said Timothy Ash, senior strategist at BlueBay Asset Management. …

‘Clear risks of contagion’: European markets drop as Turkey’s lira crisis spreads around the world (08/13/2018) | Will Martin @businessinsider @YahooFinance
… “Because of the high participation of foreign banks and portfolio investors in Turkey, there are clear risks of contagion,” Hasnain Malik, a strategist who is the head of equity research at Exotix, said in an email.
Capital Economics warned in a note on Friday that Spain, Italy, and France were likely to be the worst hit by the Turkish currency crisis because of the exposure of their banking systems. But the analyst house said the impact would be relatively limited because of the limited size of the Turkish economy.

Turkey lira crisis: Six things you need to know: A breakdown of the events, causes and effects, as Turkey’s currency collapses amid a diplomatic row with the US. (w Videos; 08/14/2018) | @aljazeera
… On Monday, the Indian rupee suffered its worst one-day fall – at more than 1.5 percent – hitting a record low of 69.9 rupees to $1. …
The South African rand has also taken a hit this week as a result of the Turkish developments, falling 10 percent before stabilising on Monday – down to a two-year low against the dollar. …

Turkey lira: Ankara to boycott US electronic goods (14/08/2018) | @BBC
Asian shares stumble as markets shrug off Wall Street relief bump; Hang Seng down 1.5% (08/15/2018) | @CNBC
Turkey Lira: Shock graph showing how Turkey CRISIS is deepening when pitted against euro (08/14/2018) | Matt Drake @Daily_Express


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Louisiana Vol.4

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The Louisiana-Texas cattle trade (02/07/2018) | Stanley Nelson @ Concordia Sentinel


Louisiana Vol.3

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US Policy Changes Vol.82 (Asia Vol.2)

Great stuff!

Can China Back Down? Crisis De-escalation in the Shadow of Popular Opposition (w PDF; Winter 2017/18) | Kai Quek, Alastair Iain Johnston @BelferCenter
The autocrat’s Achilles’ heel (02/05/2018) | Alina Polyakova and Torrey Taussig
One Kim to rule them all (02/18/2018) | Nicholas Eberstadt @AEI
THE EDUCATION OF KIM JONG-UN (February 2018) | JUNG H. PAK @BrookingsInst
US Approach to Russia in New Nuclear Posture Review Risks Boosting Chances of Conflict (02/02/2018) | Jon Wolfsthal @russia_matters


Ex-CIA analysts explain why a bloody nose policy on North Korea would backfire (02/12/2018) | Jung H. Pak, Sue Mi Terry, and Bruce Klingner @BrookingsInst


US Policy Changes Vol.81 (Economy, Monetary policy, Budget, Trade, Urban-Rural, et al.)

Great stuff!

A Fed duet: Janet Yellen in conversation with Ben Bernanke (Video; 02/27/2018) | @BrookingsInst
Credit, financial conditions, and monetary policy transmission (w PDF; 11/30/2017) | David Aikman, Andreas Lehnert, Nellie Liang, and Michele Modugno @BrookingsInst
What do stock market fluctuations mean for the economy? (02/23/2018) | Gary Burtless @BrookingsInst
The Hutchins Center Explains: Federal budget basics (05/23/2017) | Anna Malinovskaya and Louise Sheiner


Here come the big government Republicans! (02/15/2018) | James Pethokoukis @AEI
Trump’s formula for growing the U.S. economy: What will work and what won’t (02/16/2018) | Martin Neil Baily @BrookingsInst
Summers and Former Diplomats Critique Trump’s Trade Policies (01/31/2018) | ALEXANDRA A. CHAIDEZ @thecrimson
The Heightened Risks of a US Downturn (01/26/2018) | Martin Feldstein @ProSyn @BelferCenter
Metro Monitor 2018 (w PDFs; February 2018) | Chad Shearer, Isha Shah, Alec Friedhoff, and Alan Berube @BrookingsInst
Which metros are achieving true economic success? (02/26/2018) | Alan Berube @BrookingsInst
City and metropolitan income inequality data reveal ups and downs through 2016 (w Excel; 02/05/2018) | Alan Berube @BrookingsInst
Five maps show progress made, but mostly lost, on middle-class incomes in America (w Excel; 10/12/2017) | Alan Berube @BrookingsInst
Does TV bear some responsibility for hard feelings between urban America and small town America? (02/12/2018) | Jenny Schuetz @BrookingInst
Big moves to drive innovation and growth are alive… in Canada! (02/22/2018) | Mark Muro and Joseph Parilla @BrookingsInst
Employer-sponsored health insurance: Love the plan you’re with? (02/16/2018) | Thomas P. Miller @AEI
Selfishness Is Killing Liberalism: The path to its revival lies in self-sacrifice, and in placing collective interests ahead of the narrowly personal. (02/19/2018) | JAMES TRAUB @TheAtlantic


US Policy Changes Vol.76 (Trade, Energy, National Security, Financial Regulation, Tax, Values, et al.)

Great stuff!

Export Monitor 2017 (w PDFs; 08/18/2017) | Joseph Parilla and Nick Marchio @BrookingsInst

When renegotiating NAFTA, Trump should re-evaluate his premises on international trade (08/17/2017) | Dany Bahar @BrookingsInst

NAFTA renegotiation: Separating fact from fiction (08/17/2017) | Amanda Waldron @BrookingsInst

American Energy Policy (w PDF; April 2017) | Daniel Poneman @BelferCenter

Is the United States the new Saudi Arabia? (01/26/2018) | Samantha Gross @BrookingsInst

Learning from Katrina to care for Hurricane Harvey’s youngest victims (09/06/2017) | Jon Valant @BrookingsInst

Trump’s border wall is standard practice in other parts of the world (01/23/2018) | Michael Rubin @BrookingsInst

Hitting the wall: On immigration, campaign promises clash with policy realities (w PDF; 06/22/2017) | John Hudak, Elaine Kamarck, and Christine Stenglein @BrookingsInst

Strengthening and streamlining bank capital regulation (w PDFs; 09/07/2017) | Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, Jeremy C. Stein, and Adi Sunderam @BrookingsInst

What Treasury’s financial regulation report gets right and where it goes too far (06/13/2017) | Nellie Liang @BrookingsInst

Hoarding the American Dream (Podcast & Transcript; 06/16/2017) | Richard V. Reeves, Bill Finan, and Fred Dews @BrookingsInst

Professionalism in politics: The paradox of populism (Podcast & Transcript; 06/28/2017) | Jonathan Rauch, Benjamin Wittes, and Adrianna Pita @BrookingsInst

Winners and losers in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (Podcast; 12/22/2017) | Fred Dews and Adam Looney @BrookingsInst

Next Task for GOP: Spend Less and Help the Poor – Republicans did well to cut corporate taxes, not so well at expanding opportunity. (12/19/2017) | Michael R. Strain @bpolitics

Who would pay for the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act? (w PDF; 12/08/2017) | William G. Gale, Surachai Khitatrakun, and Aaron Krupkin @BrookingsInst

Senate tax bill: Lower rates for corporations? Check. Broadening the tax base? Not so much. (12/05/2017) | Adam Looney and Hilary Gelfond @BrookingsInst

Relax, the housing market will be fine after tax reform (11/09/2017) | Alex Brill @AEI

Is the rent “too damn high”? Or are incomes too low? (12/19/2017) | Jenny Schuetz @BrookingsInst

Where the robots are (08/14/2017) | Mark Muro @BrookingsInst

Signs of digital distress: Mapping broadband availability and subscription in American neighborhoods (09/12/2017) | Adie Tomer, Elizabeth Kneebone, and Ranjitha Shivaram @BrookingsInst

Segregation and changing populations shape Rust Belt’s politics (09/14/2017) | John C. Austin @BrookingsInst

Census shows nonmetropolitan America is whiter, getting older, and losing population: Will it retain political clout? (06/27/2017) | William H. Frey @BrookingsInst

A primer on gerrymandering and political polarization (07/06/2017) | Fred Dews @BrookingsInst

The geography of desperation in America (07/24/2017) | Carol Graham, Sergio Pinto, and John Juneau II @BrookingsInst

Will the release of the JFK assassination records put to rest one of the most widely believed conspiracy theories? (w Video; 10/27/2017) | Karlyn Bowman @AEI

The Rudeness of King Donald (12/04/2017) | Niall Ferguson @BostonGlobe


Texas Vol.3

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Spain Vol.4 (Catalunya Vol.4)


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Crisis Management Vol.3 (Maria, Irma, Harvey; Puerto Rico, et al.)


Crisis Management Vol.2 (Hurricanes)

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US Policy Changes Vol.73 (US business school professors Vol.6)

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US Policy Changes Vol.70 (US business school professors Vol.3)

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US Policy Changes Vol.67 (US law professors Vol.3)

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US Policy Changes Vol.66 (US law professors Vol.2)

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