World Vol.32

The US Is Officially in Recession Thanks to The Corona Virus Crisis (06/16/2020) | Jeffrey Frankel @guardian
… Readers are often surprised to learn that the task of declaring a recession in the US falls to a panel of economists who consider a wide variety of indicators. Most other advanced economies, after all, define a recession as simply two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. But the US isn’t the only country to go beyond the two-quarters rule. The Japanese government also considers other indicators in its official business-cycle chronology. And private committees in other domains – including the eurozone, Canada, Spain, and Brazil – date business cycles by looking at a wider variety of economic indicators, though without garnering as much attention from the media or official government bodies. …
Keller @ Large: Harvard Economist Warns Of Roller Coaster Economy (w Video; 05/14/2020) | @wbz
The Briefing Room – Coronavirus and the Economy (Radio; 07/05/2020) | @BBC
Deregulate for the coronavirus recovery: The Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs should think hard about which rules to enforce. (0503/2020) | Adam J. White @WSJ
Harvard’s Reinhart and Rogoff Say This Time Really Is Different: The professors, whose 2009 book showed that financial crises often follow similar patterns, spoke to us about what’s happening in 2020. (05/18/2020) | Simon Kennedy @markets
Firms won’t give up on globalization but will ‘redesign’ supply chains: Trade expert (Video; 06/12/2020) | Robert Lawrence @BNNBloomberg
Evaluating the success of President Johnson’s War on Poverty: Revisiting the historical record using a full-income poverty measure (w PDFs; 12/09/2019) | Richard Burkhauser, Kevin C. Corinth, James Elwell, Jeff Larrimore @AEI
3 charts showing good news about American wage growth (01/07/2020) | James Pethokoukis @AEI
The ‘new normal’: Thoughts about the shape of things to come in the post-pandemic world (04/19/2020) | Nicholas Eberstadt @NBRnews
A Seven-Point Checklist for Reopening the Economy: There will be setbacks, and Congress has to commit to propping up the economy over the long term. (04/15/2020) | Michael R. Strain @bpolitics
First, acknowledge that the shutdown was the right thing to do. …
Then the U.S. needs to decide what its goals are
policy makers need to be comfortable discussing the trade-off between lives and economic outcomes. …
The fourth principle: The U.S. will need to act without having all the necessary information. …
A regional opening strategy can depend on governors. …
The sixth principle is to accept the ebbs and flows of progress. …
Finally, Congress should be prepared to continue its attempts to rescue the economy over the longer term. …
National Digital Currencies: The Future of Money? (06/2020) | Aditi Kumar, Jeremy Ney, Eve Lee, Victor Ji @BelferCenter
The City-Sized Hole in U.S. GPS Planning (w PDF; 11/21/2019) | @BelferCenter
Privacy and the four categories of information technology (w PDF; 05/26/2020) | Jim Harper @AEI
The coronavirus could imperil Putin’s presidency: Russia entered the crisis with a stagnant economy, and its oil-price war with the Saudis isn’t helping. (04/23/2020) | Leon Aron @WSJ
Oil’s Collapse Is a Geopolitical Reset In Disguise (04/29/2020) | Meghan L. O’Sullivan @bopinion
Russia’s Stock Market Rallies But Still Not a Source of Long-Term Capital (12/12/2019) | Ben Aris @russia_matters
In Depth with Yuval Levin: Author and American Enterprise Institute scholar Yuval Levin talked about U.S. political history and the political divide in the country today. He’s the author of “The Great Debate,” “The Fractured Republic,’ and “A Time to Build.” (Video; 06/07/2020) | @cspan
Three Americas and the pandemic, Part III: Small cities, towns, and the countryside (06/09/2020) | Charles Murray @AEI
Biden’s Bad Foreign-Policy Ideas: The former vice president lacks a consistent philosophy of when and how to use military force. (06/07/2020) | Kori Schake @TheAtlantic
What Policymakers Should Ask Modelers (04/21/2020) | Afreen Siddiqi, Kaveri Iychettira @ProSyn
How Will COVID-19 Affect the Transatlantic Relationship? (05/01/2020) | Nicholas Burns, Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook, David E. Sanger, Amanda Sloat, Torrey Taussig @BelferCenter
The World’s Weakest Strongman (06/06/2020) | Stephen M. Walt @ForeignPolicy
The United States Forgot Its Strategy for Winning Cold Wars (05/05/2020) | Stephen M. Walt @ForeignPolicy
Will a Global Depression Trigger Another World War? (05/13/2020) | Stephen M. Walt @ForeignPolicy
No, the Coronavirus Will Not Change the Global Order: We should be skeptical toward claims that the pandemic changes everything. China won’t benefit, and the United States will remain preeminent. (04/16/2020) | Joseph S. Nye @ForeignPolicy
American Exceptionalism in the Age of Trump (06/05/2020) | Joseph S. Nye @ProSyn
So Do Morals Matter in U.S. Foreign Policy? I Asked the Expert. (04/24/2020) | Joseph S. Nye @washingtonpost
How COVID-19 is Testing American Leadership (04/26/2020) | Joseph S. Nye @east_asia_forum
Breaking the Ice: How France and the UK Could Reshape a Credible European Defense and Renew the Transatlantic Partnership (w PDF; 05/2020) | Adrien Abecassis, Jolyon Howorth @BelferCenter
A divided Europe’s China challenge (26/11/2019) | Philippe Le Corre @east_asia_forum
“Maxwell Taylor’s Cold War: From Berlin to Vietnam” by Ingo Trauschweizer (05/2020) | Nathaniel L. Moir @ Michigan War Studies Review
Niall Ferguson: ‘Now We Are in Cold War II’ (04/28/2020) | @ekathimerini
Donald Trump Could Lose the Election by Authorizing a New Nuclear Weapons Test (06/23/2020) | Stephen Herzog, Benoît Pelopidas, Jonathon Baron, Fabrício Fialho @TheNatlInterest
Why Israel’s annexation of parts of the West Bank would be a historic mistake (06/22/2020) | Tzipi Livni @washingtonpost
Tzipi Livni is a former minister of foreign affairs for Israel.
South China Sea of troubles: In 2020 the world should pay more attention to the South China Sea (11/2019) | Oriana Skylar Mastro @TheEconomist
Russian jokes tell the brutal truth: In a repressive society, dark political jokes allow regular people to describe what they see with their own eyes. (11/29/2019) | Leon Aron @TheAtlantic
Who ‘Defeated’ ISIS? An Analysis of US and Russian Contributions (05/06/2020) | Domitilla Sagramoso @russia_matters
The decline of religion in American family life: Findings from the November 2019 American Perspectives Survey (12/11/2019) | Daniel A. Cox, Jacqueline Clemence, Eleanor O’Neil @AEI
How States Like Virginia Go Blue (11/08/2020) | Matthew Continetti @FreeBeacon
… President Trump so dominates the popular imagination that every election result is described in relation to his job approval and conduct in office. … But the story of this particular Democratic winning streak is less about Trump than it is about long-running demographic and cultural transformation. He catalyzed changes decades in the making. …
One reason why UI benefit payments remain low: The lingering effects of Obama-era stimulus policies (11/26/2019) | Matt Weidinger @AEI

Connecticut Vol.12

World Vol.22 (incl #coronavirus)

Massachusetts Vol.8 (corporations, universities)


Free papers, reports, et al. Vol.46

Free papers, reports, et al. Vol.14

Here are @_WorldSolutions’ RTs which include free papers, reports/articles (citing others), and a video.

US Policy Changes Vol.30 (Miscellaneous Vol.1 – tri-state area demography)

Here is an academic article on tri-state area demography: The Receding Metropolitan Perimeter: A New Postsuburban Demographic Normal (w PDF; 2014) | James W. Hughes, Joseph J. Seneca @blousteinschool. Excerpt is on our own.

… The new postwar suburbs of the 1950s, ’60s, and ’70s were an escape from inner-city turmoil, crime, poverty, failing schools, deteriorating public transit, ever-higher taxes, and recurring fiscal crises. This was the unparalleled era of tract house suburban America. …
… In the post-2010 years (2010–2013), a “new demographic normal” started to unfold: Population growth in the suburban ring slowed dramatically and, for the first time in the post–World War II era, population growth in the historic center of the region surpassed that of the suburbs. The regional core became much more attractive to suburban-saturated young adults as rental housing achieved housing market dominance. …
… The locus of population losses in the early postwar decades (1950–1980) occurred in the urban heart of the region. The post-2010 losses are taking place in the region’s outer suburban reaches. …

Summary of Findings
– Between 1950 and 1980, the suburban ring of 27 counties in four states experienced explosive growth, nearly doubling its total population; it gained more than 5.3 million people (+177,458 persons per year). At the same time, the regional core of eight urban counties in New York and New Jersey was contracting sharply, losing close to a million (-859,660) people (-28,655 persons per year).
– In the second period (2010–2013), the suburban ring continued to grow, but at a much reduced scale (+37,742 persons per year), barely 20 percent of the annual pace of the earlier period. In contrast, the regional core gained 85,284 persons per year, an annual increase more than double that of the suburban ring. And the core accounted for the great majority (69.3 percent) of the region’s total population growth—the suburban ring just 30.7 percent. This is unparalleled in postwar annals.
– The regional core is now the locomotive of the region’s demographic train. Brooklyn was the unquestioned growth leader in the post-2010 period; its total population increase of 82,426 people between 2010 and 2013 is a startling turnaround from its 1950–1980 performance, when it shed more than one-half million people.
– In the suburban ring, the highest growth totals were achieved by three inlying counties adjacent or close to the regional core: Bergen (New Jersey), Westchester (New York), and Fairfield (Connecticut). However, there were 12 suburban counties —out of a total of 27 suburban counties— that lost population between 2010 and 2013. Thus, over 44 percent of the counties in the suburban ring experienced demographic contraction.
– All of the population-losing counties, with the exception of Monmouth County in New Jersey, were located on the metropolitan outer rim (highlighted in table 1 and figure 2): Litchfield and New Haven in Connecticut; Dutchess, Putnam, Sullivan, and Ulster in New York; Hunterdon, Sussex, and Warren in New Jersey; and Monroe and Pike in Pennsylvania. These counties, the demographic leaders of the second half of the twentieth century, have experienced a dramatic reversal of population dynamics.
– The extraordinary suburban population gains through 1980 provided the labor resources that underpinned the massive wave of postindustrial suburban office growth in the 1980s and 1990s. The new regional core population gains parallel new patterns of centralized job growth and may dictate a much more centralized economic geography in the future.
– Part of the new urban dynamic is being driven by young adults. The baby boom generation swelled the ranks of young adults (20 to 29 years of age) in the 1970s. Between 1970 and 1980, the suburban ring accounted for virtually all of the growth (96.0 percent) in this age sector.
– The pattern was strikingly different in the 2000–2010 period when echo boomers/millennials filled the 20- to 29-year-old sector. During this time the regional core almost gained parity with the suburban ring. The suburban ring’s share of total young-adult growth during the decade fell to 56.0 percent while that of the regional core increased to 44.0 percent.
… The post-2010 period has been characterized by significant changes in many of the dynamics that formerly propelled massive regional suburbanization. Major gains in public safety and fiscal stability in New York City removed a crucial impetus to suburbanize. Changes in the structural composition of the national and regional economies accelerated during and after the Great Recession of 2007–2009, significantly changing workplace geography. New demographics began to reshape the workforce, workplace preferences, and housing markets. The baby boom, the most suburban-centric generation in history, now confronts retirement and represents the workforce of the past—and the suburban values spawned in the 1950s, ’60s, and ’70s. In their stead, the baby boomers’ children—echo boomers/millennials—are rapidly becoming today’s critical workforce dynamic. Now in their twenties and early thirties, they are a tech-savvy collaborative generation wanting to live in higher-density, nonsuburban activity environments and do not, in general, find suburban employment and one-dimensional insular office campuses particularly attractive. The most talented and highly skilled of these are now known as the digerati—and because of their labor market skills, they have even stronger work, location, and lifestyle preferences and impacts.
Profound advances in information technology, particularly mobile information technology, and the forces of globalization have fundamentally altered the nature of knowledge-based work and its underlying business models. Already, this technology is providing ubiquitous connectivity, unshackling and untethering workers from fixed-in-place information technology systems. …
Corporate America too has been transformed, with a new corporate urbanism supplanting the once obsessive desire for insulated and isolated suburban office campuses. New locational preferences centered on a different set of social and physical attributes have gained momentum. At the same time, the once glittering, spanking-new, leading-edge suburban office agglomerations of the 1980s are aging and, in many cases, have become obsolete.

The Context of the Report
In 1954, a landmark article, “The Tidal Wave of Metropolitan Expansion,” was published in the Journal of the American Institute of Planners by Hans Blumenfeld… It accurately forecast the pattern of large and rapid metropolitan growth for the balance of the twentieth century—an ever-expanding metropolitan periphery, with an unrelenting suburban development wave pushing further outward from the historic city center. This certainly depicted the secular post–World War II pattern of population growth in the 35-county, four-state region surrounding New York City. Demographic tidal waves swept westward (and southward) through New Jersey and crossed the Delaware River into Pennsylvania; flowed eastward across Long Island; and also moved northward, deeper into New York State and into Connecticut. But now, after more than a half-century, these waves appear to be receding.

The Big Picture: The Startling Reversal of Fortune
… In 1950, the core’s population (9.8 million people) was over 70 percent greater than the suburban ring’s (5.7 million people). By 1980, the suburban ring’s 11.0 million people was over 20 percent greater than the core’s 9.0 million people.
…a dramatic slowing of suburban population growth, population shrinkage on the outer metropolitan perimeter, and strong urban resurgence. …
… Between 1950 and 1980, the suburban ring’s rate of population increase (+93.8 percent) was nearly double that (+49.7 percent) of the United States. Between 2010 and 2013, the suburban’s ring’s growth (+0.9 percent) was less than half that (+2.2 percent) of the nation.


The Scale of Past Urban Decline
… Between 1950 and 1980 (table 1), New York (Manhattan) lost 531,816 persons (-27.1 percent), Kings (Brooklyn) lost 507,239 persons (-18.5 percent), and the Bronx lost 282,305 persons (-19.5 percent). The three counties combined had an aggregate population decline of over 1.3 million people, a total greater than the loss of the overall core (-859,660 persons). It was the city’s own outer periphery that escaped this widespread decline. The boroughs of Queens, which gained 340,476 persons (+22.0 percent), and Richmond (Staten Island), which gained 160,566 persons (+83.8 percent), experienced suburban-like population growth during this period. …


The New Growth Frontier
… For the first time, the core dominated. It accounted for 69.3 percent (255,853 persons) of this growth; the suburban ring, just 30.7 percent (113,227 persons). The regional core is now the growth locomotive of the region’s demographic train; the suburban ring is the caboose. …
Brooklyn was the unquestioned growth leader in the post-2010 period; its population increased by 82,426 people between 2010 and 2013. Brooklyn’s current performance is also illustrated by a comparison to the 1950–1980 period, when it shed more than one-half million people. In the suburban ring, the highest growth totals post-2010 were achieved by the inlying counties of Fairfield in Connecticut (+21,090 persons), Bergen in New Jersey (+18,731 persons), and Westchester in New York (+18,126 persons). However, the growth of all three combined (+57,947 persons) falls far below that of Brooklyn. …
… fully 44.4 percent of the counties in the suburban ring experienced population declines. With the exception of Monmouth County in New Jersey — which was suffering the harsh aftereffects of Superstorm Sandy — all of the counties that lost population were on the metropolitan edge …
Monroe and Pike Counties in Pennsylvania in particular are noteworthy. They are located immediately west of Warren and Sussex Counties in New Jersey, just across the Delaware River. In the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s, they were the fastest-growing counties in the region (appendix table A-3). For example, between 1990 and 2000, the population of the suburban ring grew by 8.6 percent. In sharp contrast, Pike’s population grew by 65.6 percent and Monroe’s by 44.9 percent. But between 2010 and 2013, both Monroe (-1.7 percent) and Pike (-1.3 percent) Counties experienced population declines.

The Potency of Young Adults   TABLE 1, 2
… The first comprises maturing “60-somethings,” who are aging baby boomers now pursuing empty-nester lifestyles, trying to adapt to cutting-edge technologies, confronting their exit from the labor force, and facing retirement. The second comprises “20-somethings” and young “30-somethings.” These are echo boomers or millennials who are driving a resurgent entry-level rental housing market, new lifestyle preferences, and new workplace protocols and values. …
… Between 1970 and 1980, the four-state region added 378,755 “20-somethings.” Virtually all of the growth in such baby boom young adults took place in the suburban ring (363,595 persons), or 96.0 percent. The regional core added only 15,160 persons in this age bracket, or 4.0 percent. There would actually have been a shrinkage in young adults in the core if not for growth in Queens (+18,084 persons) and Richmond (+13,573 persons), which contain some of the more “suburban-type” areas of the core. The generation born and reared in the suburbs largely settled there as young household-forming adults. And in the two decades that followed (1980–2000), the suburbs dominated the region’s economic-growth ledgers.
… The suburban ring’s share of total regional growth during the decade fell to 56.0 percent (137,348 persons out of 245,220 persons), while that of the regional core increased to 44.0 percent (107,872 persons out of 245,220 persons). …

…both time frames represent two fundamentally different eras—unbridled suburbanization/urban decline versus recentralization/perimeter contraction—then a transformative regional change may be under way that is only just now beginning to reveal itself. The 2010–2013 period suggests that for the first time in the post–World War II era the tidal wave of metropolitan expansion has begun to ebb, with the regional core outperforming the suburban ring.
… the relentless demography of baby boom and baby boom-echo generations, rapid and sweeping technology changes, favorable quality-of-life improvements in the region’s urban core, and new cultural and locational preferences of millennials. …
Alternatively, Americans’ stubborn love affair with large vehicles, cheap gas, and free roads is still a powerful force working to maintain population dispersal. It seems to be impervious to repeated oil crises, $4-per-gallon gas (perhaps because $4 gas seems never to stick around long), and the possibility of higher energy costs in the long run for both transportation and residential heating. Also, although the powerful desire for homeownership may have been deeply dented by the Great Recession, it may recover and dominate housing markets once again.

TABLE A-1,2,3

US Policy Changes Vol.21 (Deregulation Vol.3 – finance; infrastructure)

Here are articles on financial reforms and infrastructure investment. Excerpts are on our own.

Is Steve Mnuchin Just Another Wall Street Banker? (11/30/2016) | @ThoBishop @MisesBlog
… He also entertained the idea of following the lead of other countries in possibly issuing 50–100 year bonds government bonds. As Dr. Joseph Salerno wrote recently on the subject of Austria’s 70-year bond:
The creation of [long-term bonds] enables the political elite to covertly and repeatedly plunder and impoverish productive savers, capitalists, entrepreneurs and workers, while avoiding the need to incur the wrath of the productive class by raising taxes.
… Though he started his career on Wall Street, his most recent banking experience came when he and other investors acquired subprime lender IndyMac which was re-branded as OneWest. Though the California-based bank had its own bad headlines for controversial foreclosure practices, his experience in the regional banking sector does give him a perspective from outside the world of Too Big to Fail banks. Since Dodd-Frank has increased the market share of players like Goldman and JP Morgan Chase, at the expense of community and regional bankers, perhaps his time with OneWest will keep him more focused on…
…the Volker Rule, which banned banks from proprietary trading. Since it can be difficult for government regulators to figure out what bank activity is reasonable and speculative, the rule has been criticized for requiring bureaucrats to become mind-readers. … Since Glass Steagall would explicitly put a barrier between deposit and investment banking, it would eliminate the uncertainty caused by the Volker Rule while protecting taxpayers from bailing out FDIC-insured banks from the sort of reckless lending…

How Trump Can Bring Outside-the-Box Thinking to Bear on the Fed (12/9/2016) | @TenthAmendment
… Fed officials worry the Trump presidency represents a unique threat to the Fed’s closely guarded “independence.” Sound money proponents, meanwhile, are hopeful that some long overdue reforms of the monetary system could begin to take shape.
The first item on the new president’s Fed agenda will be to appoint two members to the Board of Governors. The seven-seat Board currently has two vacancies that can be filled immediately. …
… Mnuchin, a Goldman Sachs alumnus, and Ross, a billionaire investor, have benefited from the easy money policies of Yellen and her predecessors. The values of financial assets get artificially propped up by the Fed’s injections of stimulus into the financial system. …
… The incoming president’s job is to represent the interests of ordinary Americans. Trump ran a populist campaign that drew heavy support from the South and from “flyover country.” These regions have historically been under-represented in the media, in government, and in the financial system.
Northeast elites continue to wield outsized power. That certainly holds true within the Federal Reserve itself. Since 1996, 80% of Fed governors have come from the East Coast, according to an analysis by Yale Law & Policy Review. Worse, nearly all ascribe to the Keynesian interventionist school of economics of inflation, debt, and government stimulus. …
… Senator Rand Paul and Representative Thomas Massie will try to push the Federal Reserve Transparency Act through Congress for President Trump’s signature. …
… Alabama Republican Senator Richard Shelby proposes a commission to overhaul the structure of the Federal Reserve.
Congress could also move to limit the Fed’s authority over interest rates by imposing a rules-based formula. The so-called Taylor Rule…
One advocate of this approach is Trump economic adviser Stephen Moore. …
…”dual mandate”… While other central banks are tasked with the single objective of price stability, the Fed also has the job of pursuing “maximum employment,”…
It wasn’t always this way. In 1977…
… But the political reality is that a Republican administration that rode into power on a platform of bringing back jobs won’t want to see any potential tools for promoting job growth eliminated on its watch.
… Allison has indicated he’d also consider serving as the next Fed chairman. As an opponent of central planning and a proponent of free-market economics and gold, he would bring the sort of “outside the box” perspective needed to reform the Fed. …

Fed’s Kaplan backs rate hike but says Fed will keep an eye on Trump’s policies (11/30/2016) | @elizabethgurdus @CNBC
… Kaplan told reporters he had been “comfortable” with a rate hike at policy meetings in both September and early November. “My view has not changed. I believe we are at the point where we ought to be removing some amount of accommodation in the near future,” he said.
Earlier on Wednesday, he said: “I would advocate that we take further action” to raise rates next year. …

Mnuchin and Bove Tell FBN that the Fed Should End Fannie, Freddie Conservatorship ASAP (12/8/2016) | @_InvestorsUnite @valuewalk
…government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs)…
… “They’re [Fannie and Freddie] acknowledging that they’re going to have negative capital and that’s going to create a crisis,” he said. “Second, they’ve gone back to the policies that Cuomo and Clinton had in place, which put them into trouble in the first place. They’re buying mortgages for down payments of only 3% down. They’re putting money into trust funds which are basically being used to fund subprime mortgages,” he said. …

Trump’s Treasury Secretary Pick is a Lucky Man. Very Lucky. (12/1/2016) | @eisingerj @ProPublica

Trump Picks Former Goldman Banker Steven Mnuchin As Treasury Secretary (11/30/2016) | @tylerusesoap @zerohedge

Bond Vigilantes Stir As Trump Team Hints At “Infrastructure Bank” (11/17/2016) | @tylerusesoap @zerohedge
…a “very big focus is regulatory changes, looking at the creation of an infrastructure bank to fund infrastructure investments” which to Wall Street was pure poetry, as it heard just two words: “more debt”, and thus greater probability of future QE.
… They released a plan in October advocating the provision of as much as $140 billion in tax credits to support $1 trillion in infrastructure investment, which would offset the credits through tax revenue from the projects’ labor wages and business profits.
…while the wrapper which Trump’s stimulus takes is irrelevant, whether infrastructure bank, tax credits, or direct investment, the real question is just how much more debt will this fiscal boost end up adding to America’s already $20 trillion in total debt. …
…we may find ourselves in an entirely new regime: one where the bond vigilantes take on not the Fed, but the president.“ Here is BV’s subsequent take:
One week of falling Treasury prices does not a bear market make. But if Donald Trump intends to flex the fiscal lever, bond market vigilantes could return with a vengeance, making it increasingly expensive for him to do so.

Fed Up Friday: Trump’s US Treasurer Pick Mnuchin Wants to Slash Taxes (12/2/2016) | @SchiffGold

Trump’s Treasury pick will have unprecedented power over Wall Street and the economy (11/30/2016) | @Ostaley @qz
…if Trump successfully establishes a new infrastructure bank to fund the improvements… that could be located within the Treasury Department, adding to Mnuchin’s influence.
… In 2010, under the Dodd-Frank financial reform act, they clarified the central bank’s procedures for responding to crisis situations and required that the secretary of the Treasury approve emergency loans. …
FSOC… …chaired by the Treasury secretary. …has the power to determine whether banks and institutions like hedge funds or insurance companies are “systemically important,” and if they are, to bring them under federal oversight. …
…depends on how well they get along with the president,” says @andrewtlevin @dartmouth…
…Matthew Weatherly-White @TheCAPROCKGroup…

Donald Trump’s curious Goldman Sachs connections (w Video; 11/30/2016) | @mattmegan5 @CNNMoney
… Wall Street certainly believes that Trump will be a friend. Since Trump’s election, big bank stocks are skyrocketing on hopes that Trump will dial back or even kill the Dodd-Frank financial reform regime. …

Trump’s Treasury and Commerce picks tepid on Fed’s Janet Yellen (11/30/2016) | @Matt_Belvedere @CNBC

Trump Shows Deregulatory Hand by Meeting With Former Cato Chief (11/28/2016) | @ryan_rainey @morningconsult
… Nominating Hensarling or Allison instead of Mnuchin would be a risky move because their aggressive approach to deregulation could conflict with Trump’s other priorities in immigration or health care. Trump has indicated financial deregulation is more of a second-tier issue that could be tackled after the first 100 days of his administration.
“Having a very aggressive Treasury secretary is not necessarily what you want when your priorities lay elsewhere,” said @BrandonBarford @beaconpa…


US Presidential Election 2016 Vol.3 (Mr. Donald Trump’s policies)

Here are #GOP @realDonaldTrump’s positions (policies). Excerpts are on our own.

Order an immediate review of all U.S. cyber defenses and vulnerabilities, including critical infrastructure, by a Cyber Review Team of individuals from the military, law enforcement, and the private sector.
– The Cyber Review Team will provide specific recommendations for safeguarding different entities with the best defense technologies tailored to the likely threats, and will followed up regularly at various Federal agencies and departments.
– The Cyber Review Team will establish detailed protocols and mandatory cyber awareness training for all government employees while remaining current on evolving methods of cyber-attack.
Instruct the U.S. Department of Justice to create Joint Task Forces throughout the U.S. to coordinate Federal, State, and local law enforcement responses to cyber threats.
Order the Secretary of Defense and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff to provide recommendations for enhancing U.S. Cyber Command, with a focus on both offense and defense in the cyber domain.
Develop the offensive cyber capabilities we need to deter attacks by both state and non-state actors and, if necessary, to respond appropriately.


Negotiate fair trade deals that create American jobs, increase American wages, and reduce America’s trade deficit.
Donald J. Trump’s 7 Point Plan To Rebuild the American Economy by Fighting for Free Trade
1. Withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which has not yet been ratified.
2. Appoint tough and smart trade negotiators to fight on behalf of American workers.
3. Direct the Secretary of Commerce to identify every violation of trade agreements a foreign country is currently using to harm our workers, and also direct all appropriate agencies to use every tool under American and international law to end these abuses.
4. Tell NAFTA partners that we intend to immediately renegotiate the terms of that agreement to get a better deal for our workers. If they don’t agree to a renegotiation, we will submit notice that the U.S. intends to withdraw from the deal. Eliminate Mexico’s one-side backdoor tariff through the VAT and end sweatshops in Mexico that undercut U.S. workers.
5. Instruct the Treasury Secretary to label China a currency manipulator.
6. Instruct the U.S. Trade Representative to bring trade cases against China, both in this country and at the WTO. China’s unfair subsidy behavior is prohibited by the terms of its entrance to the WTO.
7. Use every lawful presidential power to remedy trade disputes if China does not stop its illegal activities, including its theft of American trade secrets – including the application of tariffs consistent with Section 201 and 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 and Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962.
America has lost nearly one-third of its manufacturing jobs since NAFTA and 50,000 factories since China joined the World Trade Organization. [@EconomicPolicy]
Our annual trade deficit in goods with Mexico has risen from close to zero in 1993 to almost $60 billion. Our total trade deficit in goods hit nearly $800 billion last year. China is responsible for nearly half of our entire trade deficit. Almost half of our entire manufacturing trade deficit in goods with the world is the result of trade with China.

Reduce taxes across-the-board, especially for working and middle-income Americans who will receive a massive tax reduction.
Ensure the rich will pay their fair share, but no one will pay so much that it destroys jobs or undermines our ability to compete.
Eliminate special interest loopholes, make our business tax rate more competitive to keep jobs in America, create new opportunities and revitalize our economy.
Reduce the cost of childcare by allowing families to fully deduct the average cost of childcare from their taxes, including stay-at-home parents.

Ask all Department heads to submit a list of every wasteful and unnecessary regulation which kills jobs, and which does not improve public safety, and eliminate them.
Reform the entire regulatory code to ensure that we keep jobs and wealth in America.
End the radical regulations that force jobs out of our communities and inner cities. We will stop punishing Americans for working and doing business in the United States.
Issue a temporary moratorium on new agency regulations that are not compelled by Congress or public safety in order to give our American companies the certainty they need to reinvest in our community, get cash off of the sidelines, start hiring again, and expanding businesses. We will no longer regulate our companies and our jobs out of existence.
Cancel immediately all illegal and overreaching executive orders.
Eliminate our most intrusive regulations, like the Waters of The U.S. Rule. We will also scrap the EPA’s so-called Clean Power Plan which the government estimates will cost $7.2 billion a year.
Decrease the size of our already bloated government after a thorough agency review.
The U.S. economy today is twenty-five percent smaller than it would have been without the surge of regulations since 1980. [@mercatus]


Prioritize the jobs, wages and security of the American people.
Establish new immigration controls to boost wages and to ensure that open jobs are offered to American workers first.
Protect the economic well-being of the lawful immigrants already living here by curbing uncontrolled foreign worker admissions
– Select immigrants based on their likelihood of success in the U.S. and their ability to be financially self-sufficient.
– Vet applicants to ensure they support America’s values, institutions and people, and temporarily suspend immigration from regions that export terrorism and where safe vetting cannot presently be ensured.
– Enforce the immigration laws of the United States and restore the Constitutional rule of law upon which America’s prosperity and security depend.
Donald J. Trump’s 10 Point Plan to Put America First
1. Begin working on an impenetrable physical wall on the southern border, on day one. Mexico will pay for the wall.
2. End catch-and-release. Under a Trump administration, anyone who illegally crosses the border will be detained until they are removed out of our country.
3. Move criminal aliens out day one, in joint operations with local, state, and federal law enforcement. We will terminate the Obama administration’s deadly, non-enforcement policies that allow thousands of criminal aliens to freely roam our streets.
4. End sanctuary cities.
5. Immediately terminate President Obama’s two illegal executive amnesties. All immigration laws will be enforced – we will triple the number of ICE agents. Anyone who enters the U.S. illegally is subject to deportation. That is what it means to have laws and to have a country.
6. Suspend the issuance of visas to any place where adequate screening cannot occur, until proven and effective vetting mechanisms can be put into place.
7. Ensure that other countries take their people back when we order them deported.
8. Ensure that a biometric entry-exit visa tracking system is fully implemented at all land, air, and sea ports.
9. Turn off the jobs and benefits magnet. Many immigrants come to the U.S. illegally in search of jobs, even though federal law prohibits the employment of illegal immigrants.
10. Reform legal immigration to serve the best interests of America and its workers, keeping immigration levels within historic norms.

Repeal and replace Obamacare with Health Savings Accounts (HSAs).
Work with Congress to create a patient-centered health care system that promotes choice, quality, and affordability.
Work with states to establish high-risk pools to ensure access to coverage for individuals who have not maintained continuous coverage.
Allow people to purchase insurance across state lines, in all 50 states, creating a dynamic market.
Maximize flexibility for states via block grants so that local leaders can design innovative Medicaid programs that will better serve their low-income citizens.
President Obama said his health plan would cut the cost of family premiums by up to $2,500 a year. Instead, premiums have gone up by almost $5,000 since Obamacare passed.
Premiums have skyrocketed across the nation, with a national average of almost 25%, with some states experiencing rate increases up to 70%. In Iowa, one plan got a 43% increase approved. In Florida, the individual market will see an average rate increase of 19%. In Pennsylvania, at least three plans requested rate increases over 40%. And the average rate requested in Minnesota is 54%.

Peace through strength will be at the center of our foreign policy. We will achieve a stable, peaceful world with less conflict and more common ground.
Advance America’s core national interests, promote regional stability, and produce an easing of tensions in the world. Work with Congress to fully repeal the defense sequester and submit a new budget to rebuild our depleted military.
Rebuild our military, enhance and improve intelligence and cyber capabilities.
End the current strategy of nation-building and regime change.
Ensure our security procedures and refugee policy takes into account the security of the American people.

Make America energy independent, create millions of new jobs, and protect clean air and clean water. We will conserve our natural habitats, reserves and resources. We will unleash an energy revolution that will bring vast new wealth to our country.
Declare American energy dominance a strategic economic and foreign policy goal of the United States.
Unleash America’s $50 trillion in untapped shale, oil, and natural gas reserves, plus hundreds of years in clean coal reserves.
Become, and stay, totally independent of any need to import energy from the OPEC cartel or any nations hostile to our interests.
Open onshore and offshore leasing on federal lands, eliminate moratorium on coal leasing, and open shale energy deposits.
Encourage the use of natural gas and other American energy resources that will both reduce emissions but also reduce the price of energy and increase our economic output.
Rescind all job-destroying Obama executive actions. Mr. Trump will reduce and eliminate all barriers to responsible energy production, creating at least a half million jobs a year, $30 billion in higher wages, and cheaper energy.




Create a dynamic booming economy that will create 25 million new jobs over the next decade.
For each 1 percent in added GDP growth, the economy adds 1.2 million jobs. Increasing growth by 1.5 percent would result in 18 million jobs (1.5 million times 1.2 million, multiplied by 10 years) above the projected current law job figures of 7 million, producing a total of 25 million new jobs for the American economy.
Reform policies with a pro-growth tax plan, a new modern regulatory framework, an America-First trade policy, an unleashed American energy plan, and the “penny plan.”
Boost growth to 3.5 percent per year on average, with the potential to reach a 4 percent growth rate.
Over the last seven years, 14 million more people have left the labor force.
The lowest labor force participation rate since the 1970s.
1 in 5 American households do not have a single family member in the labor force.
23.7 million Americans in their prime-earning years [ages 25-54] are out of the labor force – an increase of 1.8 million over the last seven years.
Real GDP grew only 1.1% in the second quarter of this year. Over the last seven years, real GDP grew 2.1% the slowest seven-year period since at least the 1940s.
It’s the weakest so-called recovery since the Great Depression.
Hourly earnings and weakly earnings are lower today than they were in 1973.
The number of Americans on Food Stamps during Obama’s time in office has increased by more than 12 million.
2 million more Latinos are in poverty today than when President Obama took his oath of office less than eight years ago.
45% of African-American children under 6 are living in poverty.
1 in 6 American men between the ages of 18-34 are either in jail or out of work.
Student loan debt exceeds $1.3 trillion — nearly doubling under the Obama administration.
Since President Obama took office, the national debt has doubled.
U.S. trade deficit in goods reached nearly 800 billion dollars last year alone.
The U.S. homeownership rate fell to 62.9 percent in the second quarter – the lowest rate in 51 years.


Ireland Vol.8 (Must be Mister Fix-It, not a master of disaster)

Here is an article, Cowen must be Mister Fix-It, not a master of disaster (28/12/2008) | RICHARD ALDOUS. Excerpts, underlines, italicization, et al. are on our own.

The year ended with the death of Conor Cruise O’Brien, arguably Ireland’s greatest public intellectual and a political force more honoured abroad than in his own country. As the most prominent anti-IRA member of the Cosgrave government, O’Brien would have had some sympathy for any government minister held hostage at gunpoint.

Like O’Brien, the TD in question, Dick Roche, showed a certain coolness in the face of danger. Perhaps it seemed like déjà-vu. For in 2008 the political establishment has spent most of the year with a gun to its head.

That’s certainly what the Mahon Tribunal felt like for the first four months of the year. In the end, then Taoiseach Bertie Ahern decided to pull the trigger himself for the sake of the political process and the country. Troubling questions remain about the democratic deficit involved in this turn of events. Politicians clearly must be held to account — that is why the tribunal was established in the first place. …

But Mahon was not the only assault on the political establishment this year. Declan Ganley, who many had laughed off, emerged as the most successful campaigner of the year. His triumph in the Lisbon referendum was in turn a humiliation for the political elite. The ‘Yes’ campaign’s message that the treaty was a tidying up exercise was dull to the point of inertia. Nobody seemed to be in charge. …

If the resurrection of the treaty remains a possibility, one death looks final and irreversible. The Celtic Tiger has now gone the way of the dodo. A year ago all the talk was of soft landings and money-making resilience. Now the only question is whether the country can avoid a depression.

In September, having been the golden haired child of EU economic vitality, Ireland became the first western European country to go into recession. Worse followed. Bank bailouts, rising unemployment and emigration, increased taxes (a.k.a. the ‘income levy’), a black hole in the public finances, shrinking taxation revenues, ballooning national debt, out of control public sector spending: all the news was bad with a promise of worse to come.

Global economic woes and the humiliation of Lisbon played havoc with Brian Cowen’s first hundred-plus days in office. …

The challenge now for Mr Cowen is to show that he represents Ireland’s future rather than the fag end of the Ahern years. Events further afield in 2008 will have given him cause for despondency and encouragement.

Who’d have thought that Offaly would produce both the sitting Taoiseach and the US President-elect? But Brian Cowen won’t like the precedent set by the victory of Barack Obama.

Obama was swept to power on a change agenda that saw off his own party establishment in the Clintons and then, in John McCain, crushed just about the only Republican able to claim a reform mandate. It is easy to forget that even as late as September, Senator McCain was narrowly ahead in the opinion polls. Then came the collapse of Lehman Brothers. McCain’s campaign went into instant meltdown and never recovered. Senator Obama may have been untested and offering the kind of liberal economic programme that in previous elections had seen Democrats like George McGovern trounced. The electorate didn’t care: change coupled with Obama’s personal dynamism was better than continuity of any kind.

That’s bad news for Mr Cowen after more than a decade of Fianna Fail government. For encouragement, he needs to look not across the Atlantic but instead over the Irish Sea.

For much of 2008, the British Prime Minister, Gordon Brown, found himself in a similar position to the Taoiseach. Opinion polls seemed apocalyptic. His performances in the House of Commons were leaden. Having been an impressive ‘Iron’ Chancellor of the Exchequer, the premiership appeared to have diminished him. It seemed only a matter of time before he was replaced.

Then the banking crisis hit. The prime minister found a new energy and purpose. He even took up yoga. Where previously there had been no direction, now there was vision and strategy. Gordon Brown visibly bucked up. Opinion polls reflected a sense that after all, he might be the right man for the job.

There’s a lesson in this. We forgive mistakes that come from brave decisions. It is inertia and despair that earns our contempt. Early on, the Cowen government took the courageous route. The guarantee to the banks was bold and imaginative. It drew international criticism followed by quiet imitation. Since then, however, there has been only drift.

Another lesson from Mr Brown is that bold decisions require political heft. When the British prime minister was polling badly, there was precious little of that in his cabinet. His response, to widespread amazement, was to bring his old foe Peter Mandelson back from Brussels. Blairite advisors Alistair Campbell and Jonathan Powell also returned to the fold. The turnaround in fortunes was immediate and dramatic.

Mr Cowen has plenty of talent in a young team, but the more experienced cabinet heavyweights, notably Micheal Martin, have been kept at an arm’s length from economic policy making.

If imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, Mr Cowen could do worse than bring Charlie McCreevy back from Brussels. Like Mandelson, he is a controversial figure, but he has chutzpah and is a bold thinker. More than any other individual in Fianna Fail, Mr McCreevy has the ability to get the government on the front foot again. And to cheer everyone up.

That last point is more important than we might think. An observation often made of Mr Brown is that he has visibly perked up since the financial crisis began. That may seem odd in the middle of a global meltdown, but it reflects his renewed sense of confidence and purpose.

Some of that may be to do with the early morning yoga in Downing Street. More likely, it is because he finally believes he’s up to the job.

History teaches us that optimism is one of the most important aspects of political leadership when times are hard. Franklin D Roosevelt, whose New Deal steered the US through the great depression of the 1930s, is considered among America’s very finest presidents. Yet in reality the economy in that decade remained a disaster, with unemployment stuck at 20 per cent even as late as 1938. But Roosevelt, with his breezy fireside chats and sense that he was doing everything possible continued to be trusted — in 1936, he was re-elected with the greatest landslide in the history of the two-party system.

The Taoiseach needs to find a similar kind of optimism and direction. No-one is suggesting yoga in government buildings — although don’t knock it if it works — but what he does need to convey is the sense that he is the master not the servant of events.

Mr Cowen is not afraid of a fight. But he may need to mix it with a smile on his face.

He could find worse role models than Dick Roche and Conor Cruise O’Brien.

Australia Vol.5 (Economy)

Australia’s Economic Outlook in Six Charts (02/21/2019) | @imf
Australia and the Global Economy – The Terms of Trade Boom | @RBAInfo
Fact sheets for countries, economies and regions | @dfat
Remember when Australia had the world’s best economy? (15/04/2019) | Alan Austin @IndependentAus
Spending across the Australian economy has suddenly improved (04/17/2019) | David Scutt @BIAUS

Australia’s Growth Industries (08/10/2016) | Phil Ruthven @IBISWorld
Key Industries in Australia (08/22/2018) | @Australiance
Industry Overview | @ABSStats
Australia’s Top Commodity Imports & Exports | @wwwcommoditycom
Why Australia | @Austrade
Australia: Economic and Political Overview | @Nordea

Agricultural commodities: March quarter 2019 | @DeptAgNews
Australia’s ‘five strong pillar economy’: agriculture (04/27/2015) | Peter J. Batt @ConversationEDU
Agriculture in Australia: activity and financing – Economic Report (PDF; 09/2016) | @ausbanking
Trends in Australian Agriculture (w PDF; 2005) | @ozprodcom
Agriculture is worth $60 billion to Australian economy (10/11/2017) | Daryl Quinlivan @FarmOnline

The end of a mining boom leaves Australia’s economy surprisingly intact: As investment in mines dries up, property takes up the slack (03/09/2017) | @TheEconomist
Australia’s ‘five pillar economy’: mining (05/01/2015) | Anne Garnett @ConversationEDU
Australian Mineral Commodities (w PDFs) | @IndustryGovAu
Why is Iron Ore so Important to the Australian Economy? | @marketsmoneyau
Mining of continued importance to Australia’s economy (29/03/2019) | @World_Coal_Mag
Australia’s Uranium Mines | @worldnuclear

Publications | @Treasury_AU
Funding and incentives | @IndustryGovAu
Mineral resources information | Australia Minerals
Export | @deptagnews
Trade & investment data, information & publications | @dfat
Defence Industry

Victoria Australia’s top state economy, but NSW the real winner (11/17/2017) | Peter Martin @smh
… But the league table takes no account of population growth.
Victoria had by far the strongest population growth during 2016-17. NSW and Queensland were well behind, and the other states even further behind. When adjusted for population, gross state product per resident grew fastest in South Australia (1.6 per cent) and NSW (1.3 per cent). Victoria’s gross state product per resident grew just 0.9 per cent. ….
Industries | @businessnsw
Industry sectors | @global_vic
Industries | @Businessqldgov
Industry Level Indicators | The South Australian Centre for Economic Studies @uniofadelaide
Major Industries in Western Australia | WA Department of Jobs, Tourism, Science and Innovation
Industry sectors | Tasmania Department of State Growth
Industry sectors | @ The Territory

Australia’s ‘perfect economy’ set for a wake-up call – and the world is watching (04/30/2019) | Daniel Moss @smh
Reserve Bank should call in the helicopters to drop money on Australian households: Citi (26/04/2019) | Stephen Letts @ABCnews
What the Rest of the World Can Learn From the Australian Economic Miracle (04/06/2019) | Neil Irwin @nytimes
Australia: 27 Years of Economic Growth and Counting | @foreignpolicy
Australia’s Economy is a House of Cards (11/12/2017) | Matt Barrie @medium
Australia’s Economy Is Slowing. Its Stock Market Isn’t (04/11/2019) | Jackie Edwards @business
Australia Is On The Brink Of A Housing Collapse That Resembles 2008 (04/08/2019) | John Mauldin @forbes
Australia’s cooling housing market; is the economy at risk? (12/09/2018) | Philip Hemmings @OECDeconomy
Australia’s economic slowdown – is the worst still to come? (12/08/2018) | John Beveridge @SmallCapsASX
CAN AUSTRALIA KEEP BEATING THE ECONOMIC ODDS? (06/14/2017) | Mark Thirlwell @PacificStand
Australia’s economy: The good and bad signs (10/29/2015) | Dominic Beattie @CANSTAR
How will Australia’s economy perform in 2019? (01/02/2019) | @AICDirectors
China’s economic leverage over Australia (21/06/2017) | @ANUCrawford
Australia’s economy is on a 25-year winning streak, and China will determine how much longer it goes (03/04/2017) | Dan Kopf @qz

Industry policy in an open economy | Eugenia Karanikolas @ Parliament of Australia
Shape of Australia’s economy | @GrattanInst
The Once-Lucky Country: Planners and other elites threaten the long-established pleasures of life in Australia. (04/29/2019) | Joel Kotkin @CityJournal
The Economic History of Australia from 1788: An Introduction | Bernard Attard @EconHistAssoc
Australia Economic Structure (03/10/2010) | Economy Watch
Australia’s fisheries diplomacy: about more than fish (15/03/2016) | Marcus Haward and Anthony Bergin @aspi_org