Free papers, reports, et al. Vol.47


Free papers, reports, et al. Vol.45


Free papers, reports, et al. Vol.44


Free papers, reports, et al. Vol.43


Free papers, reports, et al. Vol.41


Free papers, reports, et al. Vol.40


Free papers, reports, et al. Vol.39


Middle East Vol.10 (Iran Vol.6 – US Withdrawal from Nuclear Agreement)


Middle East Vol.9 (Iran and miscellaneous)

Op-ed: The Fruits of Iran’s Victory in Syria | Ariane Tabatabai @Lawfare
Donald Trump Doesn’t Understand What’s Happening in Iran (01/01/2018) | Ariane Tabatabai @TheAtlantic
“Fix” the Iran deal, but don’t move the goalposts (01/18/2018) | Robert Einhorn @BrookingsInst


How to Stop Iran’s Missile Program (12/10/2017) | Henry Sokolski and William H. Tobe @TheNatlInterest
How the Trump Administration is Boosting Iran’s Hardliners (10/10/2017) | Ariane Tabatabai @TheAtlantic
Managing U.S.-Iran Relations: Critical Lessons from the Iran-Iraq War (w PDF; November 2017) | Ariane Tabatabai Annie Tracy Samuel
Afghanistan: Another Victory for Tehran? (10/08/2017) | Ariane Tabatabai @lawfareblog https://lawfareblog.com/afghanistan-another-victory-tehran Nuclear Energy and the Spread of Nuclear Weapons: How Worried Should We Be? (w PDF; November 2017) | Nicholas L Miller @Journal_IS
Why Nuclear Energy Programs Rarely Lead to Proliferation (Fall 2017) | Nicholas L Miller @Journal_IS
Former Obama Deputy Secretary of Energy Dan Poneman On The Key Component To Lowering CO2 Emissions: Nuclear Power (Voice; 06/06/2017) | Hugh Hewitt


A Trump doctrine for the Middle East (04/16/2018) | Martin S. Indyk @BrookingsInst

Why Israel Needs to Escalate Its Threats Against Iran ? Right Now (04/14/2018) | Chuck Freilich @Haaretz
How the peace process killed the two-state solution (04/12/2018) | Khaled Elgindy @BrookingsInst
Israel and Trump are at odds on Syria (04/11/2018) | Natan Sachs @BrookingsInst


Middle East Vol.8 (Syria Vol.2)


Trump’s “Red Line” Moment in Syria? (04/12/2018) | BENNETT SEFTEL @thecipherbrief
The International Community Will Not Tolerate the Normalization of the Use of Chemical Weapons | James A. (Sandy) Winnefeld, Jr. @CBSNews
Can a one-off military strike deter Syria’s Assad from using chemical weapons again? The data suggests no (04/11/2018) | Chris Meserole @BrookingsInst
Op-ed: Trump’s Problem in Syria? It Was Obama’s Too | Susan Rice @nytimes
DEEP DISH: WHAT DID THE SYRIA STRIKE ACCOMPLISH? (Podcast; 04/19/2018) | Greg Jaffe, Ivo Daalder, Brian Hanson @ChicagoCouncil
Op-ed: Mission Far From Accomplished in Syria | Simon Saradzhyan @RussiaMatters
TV Interview: No ‘Thank-you’ Yet for Trump Before Job is Done in Syria | Meghan O’Sullivan @CNBC
How do we prevent ISIS 2.0? Withdrawing from Syria is not the answer (04/07/2018) | Pavel K. Baev, Ryan Crocker, and Michael E. O’Hanlon @BrookingsInst
Op-ed: Trump’s Syria whiplash (04/11/2018) | Amanda Sloat @BrookingsInst
Reasons W Should be Skeptical About the U.S.-led Attacks on Syria | Rami Khouri @agenceglobal
President Trump’s Syria Strikes Are Not About Syria (04/16/2018) | Robert M. Danin @MEastMatters @CFR_org
Op-ed: Has Trump Become a Realist? | Stephen Walt @ForeignPolicy
Op-ed: The War is the Vortex of Roughly Three Conflicts | Karl Kaiser @ Metro UN
The World After Trump: How the System Can Endure | Jake Sullivan @ForeignAffairs
Op-ed: The Problem With “Cold War” Comparisons | Odd Arne Westad @newrepublic
On Donald Trump and Russia (04/09/2018) | Danielle Pletka @AEI
Pushing back Russia in the Middle East: A thought experiment (04/13/2018) | Daniel L. Byman @BrookingsInst


Middle East Vol.7 (Syria Vol.1)


Germany Vol.6 (Grand Coalition 2018 #GroKo, et al.)

Germany1Germany2
Germany: Merkel’s next cabinet shows youth trend (11/03/2018) | @dwnews
MINISTERS UNDER MERKEL: GERMANY’S NEW GOVERNMENT
Chancellor: Angela Merkel (CDU)
Chief of Staff at the Chancellery: Helge Braun (CDU)
Minister of the Interior, Heimat and Construction: Horst Seehofer (CSU)
The fight for the Foreign Ministry: Heiko Maas (SPD)
Finance Minister: Olaf Scholz (SPD)
Minister of Defense: Ursula von der Leyen (CDU)
Economic and Energy Affairs Minister: Peter Altmaier (CDU)
Minister of Justice and Consumer Protection: Katarina Barley (SPD)
Minister of Labor and Social Affairs: Hubertus Heil (SPD)
Minister for the Environment: Svenja Schulze (SPD)
Minister for Health: Jens Spahn (CDU)
Minister of Education and Research: Anja Karliczek (CDU)
Minister for Family Affairs, Senior Citizens, Women and Youth: Franziska Giffey (SPD-Mayor Berlin-Neukolln)
Minister of Economic Cooperation and Development: Gerd Muller (CSU)
Minister of Transport and Digital Infrastructure: Andreas Scheuer (CSU)
Minister for Food and Agriculture: Julia Klockner (CDU)
@cducsubt @CDU @CSU
@spdde
German Elections: Mapping Economic Policy Preferences (09/14/2017) | Caspar Kolster @gmfus
Germany: A New Government Is off to a Weak Start (03/14/2018) | @stratfor
Coalition watch – The making of a new German government (14/03/2018) | Soren Amelang, Kerstine Appunn, Sven Egenter, Benjamin Wehrmann, Julian Wettengel CLEW
Angela Merkel sworn in for fourth term as German Chancellor (03/14/2018) | Judith Vonberg @CNN
Angela Merkel re-elected as German chancellor to fourth term after five months of political deadlock (14/03/2018) | @tomemburyd @independent
The SPD just won the Frankfurt mayoralty in a landslide. So why are Germany’s cities going red? (03/15/2018) | Stephen Jorgenson-Murray @CityMetric
Merkel secures fourth term in power after SPD backs coalition deal (04/03/2018) | Philip Oltermann @guardian
The last thing Germany – and Europe – needs is a grand coalition (23/02/2018) | Timothy Garton Ash @guardian
German coalition talks to continue on Monday and focus on health and labor (02/04/2018) | Michelle Martin & Andreas Rinke @reuters
https://twitter.com/dw_politics/status/973993118608568330


https://twitter.com/dw_politics/status/973925892375367680


https://twitter.com/dw_politics/status/973847104207622144


https://twitter.com/MattSmithWales/status/921700025381597184


UK Vol.112 (Post-EUref #Brexit Vol.36)


https://twitter.com/EU_Commission/status/961141486250164224


https://twitter.com/EUlondonrep/status/959007285153591296


UK Vol.111 (Post-EUref #Brexit Vol.35)


US Policy Changes Vol.82 (Asia)

Great stuff!

Can China Back Down? Crisis De-escalation in the Shadow of Popular Opposition (w PDF; Winter 2017/18) | Kai Quek, Alastair Iain Johnston @BelferCenter
The autocrat’s Achilles’ heel (02/05/2018) | Alina Polyakova and Torrey Taussig
One Kim to rule them all (02/18/2018) | Nicholas Eberstadt @AEI
THE EDUCATION OF KIM JONG-UN (February 2018) | JUNG H. PAK @BrookingsInst
US Approach to Russia in New Nuclear Posture Review Risks Boosting Chances of Conflict (02/02/2018) | Jon Wolfsthal @russia_matters


Ex-CIA analysts explain why a bloody nose policy on North Korea would backfire (02/12/2018) | Jung H. Pak, Sue Mi Terry, and Bruce Klingner @BrookingsInst


US Policy Changes Vol.80 (Middle East Vol.6)

Great stuff!


Are Oil Prices Heading for Another Spike? (01/31/2018) | Carmen Reinhart, Vincent Reinhart @ProSyn @BelferCenter
OPEC’s Misleading Narrative About World Oil Supply (w PDF; March 2017) | Leonardo Maugeri @BelferCenter
Inside the Middle East Q&A: Ali Ahmad on Nuclear Power and Energy in the Middle East (Podcast; 02/20/2018) | @BelferCenter
A Lasting Defeat: The Campaign to Destroy ISIS (October 2017) | Ash Carter @BelferCenter
The Syrian crisis: A reckoning and a road map (09/12/2017) | Itamar Rabinovich @BrookingsInst
Don’t underestimate Kurdistan’s resilience (09/22/2017) | Ranj Alaaldin @BrookingsInst
A political surge is what’s needed in Afghanistan (05/30/2017) | Douglas Lute @thehill
Is it time for India to play a role in Israeli-Palestinian peace? (02/22/2018) | Kadira Pethiyagoda @BrookingInst
Who is responsible for solving Gaza’s massive electricity crisis? (02/05/2018) | Diana B. Greenwald @washingtonpost
Iran and Israel face off in Syria, as if it wasn’t complicated enough (02/13/2018) | Dror Michman and Yael Mizrahi-Arnaud @Brookingsinst
A Poorly Negotiated Saudi Nuclear Deal Could Damage Future Regional Relationships (02/05/2018) | Henry Sokolski, William H. Tobey @TheNatlInterest
Saudi Reforms Get a Boost From Google (02/04/2018) | Karen Elliott House @WSJ
Trump, Jerusalem, and a dispensable Arab region (12/06/2017) | Rami G. Khouri @agenceglobal
Jerusalem: securing spaces in holy places (07/31/2017) | Beverley Milton-Edwards @BrookingsInst
Jerusalem: After 30 years of hope and failure, what’s next for Israel/Palestine? (12/13/2017) | Hady Amr @BrookingsInst
Has Israel Grown Too Dependent on the United States? (02/05/2018) | Chuck Freilich @mosaicmag
How much does BDS threaten Israel’s economy? (01/26/2018) | Dany Bahar and Natan Sachs @BrookingsInst
The two things that will determine Netanyahu’s fate (02/15/2018) | Natan Sachs @BrookingsInst
Trump Wants to Attack North Korea? He Should Learn from Israel First (02/01/2018) | David Ignatius @washingtonpost
Cooperation in the Libya WMD Disarmament Case (PDF) | William Tobey
Verifying the Elimination of Nuclear Weapons and Providing Assurance against Breakout (w PDF; February 2018) | John Carlson @BelferCenter
The World Doesn’t Need Any More Nuclear Strategies (02/06/2018) | Stephen M. Walt @ForeignPolicy


US Policy Changes Vol.79 (National Defense Strategy, National Security Strategy, Geopolitics, Transatlantic divide, et al.)

Great stuff!


Repair and Rebuild: Balancing New Military Spending for a Three-Theater Strategy | Mackenzie Eaglen @AEI
Questions about the Nuclear Posture Review (02/05/2018) | Steven Pifer @Belfercenter
Watch: Experts discuss an era of new geopolitics (w Video; 02/07/2018) | Ryan Hass, Bruce Jones, Robert Kagan, Suzanne Maloney, Jung H. Pak, Alina Polyakova, and Thomas Wright @BrookingsInst
Making Sense of the U.S. National Defense Strategy (02/05/2018) | Kevin Ryan @CarnegieRussia Moscow Center


Restoring equilibrium: U.S. policy options for countering and engaging Russia (w PDF: February 2018) | Sergey Aleksashenko, Pavel K. Baev, Michael E. O’Hanlon, Steven Pifer, Alina Polyakova, Angela Stent, Strobe Talbott, Thomas Wright, Torrey Taussig, and Bruce Jones @BrookingsInst
A Humpty Dumpty Europe, feat. Cathryn Cluver Ashbrook (Podcast; 02/01/2018) | @BelferCenter
Normal is over: Europeans hope that the Trump era is an anomaly. But the transatlantic divide has never been so stark (w PDF; February 2018) | Constanze Stelzenmuller @BrookingsInst
What did Trump say and not say about foreign policy in Tuesday’s speech? (w PDF; 01/31/2018) | @NewsHour
Trump, Nunes and the politicisation of intelligence (02/07/2018) | Calder Walton @prospect_uk


US Policy Changes Vol.78 (Global politics, Nuclear deterrence, Economic inequality, Mobility, et al.)

Great stuff!

An Outlook on Global Politics 2018 (w PDF; 01/23/2018) | Nicholas Burns @BelferCenter

Who’s Afraid of a Balance of Power? (12/08/2017) | Stephen M. Walt @ForeignPolicy

The European trust crisis and the rise of populism (w PDFs; 09/07/2017) | Yann Algan, Sergei Guriev, Elias Papaioannou, and Evgenia Passari @BrookingsInst

A post-American Europe and the future of U.S. strategy (w PDF; December 2017) | Thomas Wright @BrookingsInst

America is on the brink of a historic break with Europe, thanks to Trump (12/26/2016) | Nicholas Burns @USAToday

How to read the 2018 National Defense Strategy (01/21/2018) | Mara Karlin @BrookingsInst

Brookings experts on Trump’s National Security Strategy (12/21/2017) | @BrookingsInst

Crafting Trump’s first National Security Strategy: What it could be?and why it might not matter anyway (09/13/2017) | Tarun Chhabra @BrookingsInst

Former Commander: Here’s What Happens When the President Orders a Nuclear Strike (w Video; 08/11/2017) | James Winnefeld @Fortune

The New Era of Counterforce: Technological Change and the Future of Nuclear Deterrence (w PDF; Spring 2017) | Keir A. Lieber & Daryl Press @Journal_IS

Nuclear Deterrence in the Computer Age: The Erosion of Stalemate (w PDF; 05/16/2017) | Keir A. Lieber & Daryl Press @Journal_IS

The 1967 War (Podcast; 06/02/2017) | Khaled Elgindy, Shadi Hamid, Martin S. Indyk, Natan Sachs, Tamara Cofman Wittes, and Fred Dews @BrookingsInst

Twelve economic facts on energy and climate change: A joint report from The Hamilton Project and the Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago (w PDF; 03/27/2017)

A Time to Repair the Roof: A Speech by International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde (w Transcript & Video; 10/05/2017) | (Nicholas Burns, Lawrence Summers) @futurediplomacy

Charles Murray on Culture vs. Economics – From the book “This Way Up” | @AEI

Teaching about economic inequality is political, but not the way you think (12/06/2017) | Joel Westheimer and John Rogers @BrookingsInst

The Copenhagen City and Port Development Corporation: A model for regenerating cities (w PDF; 06/01/2017) | Bruce Katz and Luise Noring @BrookingsInst

The future of mobility: Why your new car is like an electronic typewriter (01/17/2018) | Wolfgang Fengler @BrookingsInst

Gauging investment in self-driving cars (w Excel; 10/16/2017) | Cameron F. Kerry and Jack Karsten

It’s Energy Week: Here are 10 lessons about buying or leasing an electric car (06/27/2017) | Timmons Roberts

Eleven facts about innovation and patents (w PDF; 12/13/2017) | Jay Shambaugh, Ryan Nunn, and Becca Portman @BrookingsInst

2017 Annual Report | @AEI


US Policy Changes Vol.77 (Asia, et al.)

Great stuff!

The general public thinks the average company makes a 36% profit margin, which is about 5X too high, Part II (01/15/2018) | Mark J. Perry @AEI

Part I (04/02/2015)

Is another debt crisis on the way? (12/18/2017) | Kemal Dervi? @BrookingsInst

Realism and North Korea (07/02/2017) | James Winnefeld and Michael Morell @thecipherbrief

Avoiding nuclear conflict on the Korean peninsula (Podcast; 01/17/2018) | Ryan Hass, Bruce Jones, Jung H. Pak, and Adrianna Pita @BrookingsInst

Beyond maximum pressure: A pathway to North Korean denuclearization (w PDF; December 2017) | Jung H. Pak and Ryan Hass @BrookingsInst

Understanding the North Korea Threat (12/06/2017) | Joseph S. Nye @BelferCenter

North Korea’s Biological Weapons Program: The Known and Unknown (October 2017) | Elizabeth Philipp, Hyun-Kyung Kim, Hattie Chung @BelferCenter

Approaching the North Korea challenge realistically (w PDF; 08/14/2017) | Robert Einhorn @BrookingsInst

Why deterring and containing North Korea is our least bad option (08/08/2017) | Jeffrey A. Bader @BrookingsInst

The Korean nuclear issue: Past, present, and future: A Chinese perspective (04/30/2017) | Fu Ying @BrookingsInst

Can Chinese banks identify North Korean sanctions evaders? (04/10/2017) | Aaron Arnold @BulletinAtomic

What Can Vietnam Learn From China’s Economic Retaliation Against South Korea?: China’s punishment for THAAD could preview what Vietnam can expect if South China Sea tensions rise too high. (03/29/2017) | Viet Phuong Nguyen @Diplomat_APAC

Freedom of Navigation in the South China Sea: A Practical Guide (June 2017) | Eleanor Freund / Andrew Facini @BelferCenter

Was pre-Trump U.S. policy towards China based on “false” premises?: China in Trump’s National Security Strategy (12/22/2017) | Jeffrey A. Bader and Ryan Hass @BrookingsInst

Is Chinese Nationalism Rising? Evidence from Beijing (w PDF; Winter 2016/17) | Alastair Iain Johnston @Journal_IS

Balancing China: How to Check Chinese Military Expansion in East Asia (w PDF; November 2017) | Michael Beckley @BelferCenter

China, America and the Thucydides Trap: An interview with Graham Allison (23/08/2017) | Sam Roggeveen @LowyInstitute

The troubling U.S.-China face-off (June 2017) | Harvard Gazette

Avoiding war: Containment, competition, and cooperation in U.S.-China relations (w PDF; 11/21/2017) | David Dollar, Ryan Hass, Robert Kagan, Kenneth G. Lieberthal, Cheng Li, Mira Rapp-Hooper, Jonathan Stromseth, Bruce Jones, and Tarun Chhabra

How China Cheats (11/02/2017) | Derek Scissors @NRO

Trump’s War – More Risk Than Reward for US Military Involvement in Afghanistan (w Video; 08/22/2017) | Rolf Mowatt-Larssen @JustSecurity

The outlines of Trump’s Asia strategy: The President’s Asian trip sketched out a smart approach to containing North Korea, competing with China, and rebuilding trust with allies. Now comes the time to fill in the blanks. (11/17/2017) | Dan Blumenthal @AEI

The new geopolitics of trade in Asia (11/15/2017) | Mireya Solis @BrookingsInst

Russia, China and the Uncertain Future of the Collective West: Q&A with Kevin Rudd (03/29/2017) | @russia_matters

After the INF Treaty: An Objective Look at US and Russian Compliance, Plus a New Arms Control Regime (12/07/2017) | Kevin Ryan @russia_matters

Putin’s disinformation war on the West (Podcast; 12/15/2017) | Alina Polyakova and Fred Dews @BrookingsInst

Dreaming Spies: The Inside Story of the KGB at Oxford (12/01/2017) | Calder Walton @prospect_uk

Russia’s Lasting Influence in Central Asia (11/19/2017) | Morena Skalamera @Survival

TPPs for success: Here is how India can use this gamechanger agreement (07/17/2017) | Harsha Vardhana Singh @BrookingsInst

Tokyo and Washington Have Another Nuclear Problem: There’s a plutonium arms race brewing in East Asia that could see China, Japan, and South Korea with the capability to make tens of thousands of nuclear weapons. (08/17/2017) | HENRY SOKOLSKI, WILLIAM TOBEY @ForeignPolicy

Some reflections on Japanese monetary policy (05/23/2017) | Ben S. Bernanke @BrookingsInst

‘There were just so many things that I was curious about’ (05/09/2017) | Harvard Gazette


US Policy Changes Vol.76 (Trade, Energy, National Security, Financial Regulation, Tax, Values, et al.)

Great stuff!

Export Monitor 2017 (w PDFs; 08/18/2017) | Joseph Parilla and Nick Marchio @BrookingsInst

When renegotiating NAFTA, Trump should re-evaluate his premises on international trade (08/17/2017) | Dany Bahar @BrookingsInst

NAFTA renegotiation: Separating fact from fiction (08/17/2017) | Amanda Waldron @BrookingsInst

American Energy Policy (w PDF; April 2017) | Daniel Poneman @BelferCenter

Is the United States the new Saudi Arabia? (01/26/2018) | Samantha Gross @BrookingsInst

Learning from Katrina to care for Hurricane Harvey’s youngest victims (09/06/2017) | Jon Valant @BrookingsInst

Trump’s border wall is standard practice in other parts of the world (01/23/2018) | Michael Rubin @BrookingsInst

Hitting the wall: On immigration, campaign promises clash with policy realities (w PDF; 06/22/2017) | John Hudak, Elaine Kamarck, and Christine Stenglein @BrookingsInst

Strengthening and streamlining bank capital regulation (w PDFs; 09/07/2017) | Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, Jeremy C. Stein, and Adi Sunderam @BrookingsInst

What Treasury’s financial regulation report gets right and where it goes too far (06/13/2017) | Nellie Liang @BrookingsInst

Hoarding the American Dream (Podcast & Transcript; 06/16/2017) | Richard V. Reeves, Bill Finan, and Fred Dews @BrookingsInst

Professionalism in politics: The paradox of populism (Podcast & Transcript; 06/28/2017) | Jonathan Rauch, Benjamin Wittes, and Adrianna Pita @BrookingsInst

Winners and losers in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (Podcast; 12/22/2017) | Fred Dews and Adam Looney @BrookingsInst

Next Task for GOP: Spend Less and Help the Poor – Republicans did well to cut corporate taxes, not so well at expanding opportunity. (12/19/2017) | Michael R. Strain @bpolitics

Who would pay for the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act? (w PDF; 12/08/2017) | William G. Gale, Surachai Khitatrakun, and Aaron Krupkin @BrookingsInst

Senate tax bill: Lower rates for corporations? Check. Broadening the tax base? Not so much. (12/05/2017) | Adam Looney and Hilary Gelfond @BrookingsInst

Relax, the housing market will be fine after tax reform (11/09/2017) | Alex Brill @AEI

Is the rent “too damn high”? Or are incomes too low? (12/19/2017) | Jenny Schuetz @BrookingsInst

Where the robots are (08/14/2017) | Mark Muro @BrookingsInst

Signs of digital distress: Mapping broadband availability and subscription in American neighborhoods (09/12/2017) | Adie Tomer, Elizabeth Kneebone, and Ranjitha Shivaram @BrookingsInst

Segregation and changing populations shape Rust Belt’s politics (09/14/2017) | John C. Austin @BrookingsInst

Census shows nonmetropolitan America is whiter, getting older, and losing population: Will it retain political clout? (06/27/2017) | William H. Frey @BrookingsInst

A primer on gerrymandering and political polarization (07/06/2017) | Fred Dews @BrookingsInst

The geography of desperation in America (07/24/2017) | Carol Graham, Sergio Pinto, and John Juneau II @BrookingsInst

Will the release of the JFK assassination records put to rest one of the most widely believed conspiracy theories? (w Video; 10/27/2017) | Karlyn Bowman @AEI

The Rudeness of King Donald (12/04/2017) | Niall Ferguson @BostonGlobe


US Policy Changes Vol.75 (North Korea)

Great stuff: The Method in North Korea’s Madness: A monstrous regime’s rational statecraft (01/16/2018) | Nicholas Eberstadt @Commentary. Excerpt is on our own.

ONE
… A CIA study in the late 1970s, for example, concluded that South Korea did not catch up with North Korea until 1975. …
In 1984, Kim Il Sung made a fateful error: He leaned decisively toward Moscow, a tilt signaled by his unprecedented six-week state visit to the USSR and Eastern Europe that same year. The gamble paid off initially: Between 1985 and 1989, the Kremlin transferred around $7 billion to Pyongyang, twice as much as the amount transferred over the entire previous 25 years, much of it in military materiel. In 1988, North Korea relied on the Soviet bloc not only for almost all its net concessionary foreign-resources transfers, but also for roughly two-thirds of its international trade, most of it arranged on political, highly subsidized, terms.
Then the came the Soviet bloc’s collapse. By 1992 – the year after the collapse of the USSR – both trade and aid from the erstwhile Soviet bloc had plummeted by nearly 90 percent. North Korea’s worldwide overall supplies of merchandise from all foreign sources consequently plunged by more than half over those same years. …
TWO
… Rough estimates suggest that, by 1998, North Korea’s real per capita commercial merchandise exports were barely a third their level of just a decade earlier, while real per capita imports, including supplies indispensable to the performance of key sectors of the domestic economy, were down by about 75 percent. …
… Between 2002 and 2008, China’s annual net balance of shipments of goods to North Korea – its exports to Pyongyang minus corresponding imports – more than quintupled, rocketing upward from less than $300 million to more than $1.5 billion. …
…Kim Jong Il’s North Korea clawed its way back from famine to a low but acceptable new economic normal – all the while forswearing domestic economic reforms or genuinely commercial contacts with the outside world. North Korea did not completely avoid potentially fraught economic changes under Kim Jong Il, of course – that was beyond the powers even of the Dear Leader. Domestic cellphone use began during the Dear Leader’s reign… “transition without reform,” …
THREE
… Unlike the Great Leader, who had groomed his son to rule from an early age, Kim Jong Il himself put off the whole business of naming a successor for as long as he possibly could…
…the name of his signature policy: byungjin, or “simultaneous pursuit.” …
FOUR
… Pyongyang does not “do” gratitude. … capricious cutbacks in free food from China in the year 1994 were the trigger for the Great North Korean Famine, which became impossible to conceal by 1995.
Today it is all but impossible to get by in North Korea on state-supplied provisions alone?and a wide array of goods and services, both foreign and domestic, are available for money in North Korean markets. Although formally prohibited, even real estate is for sale throughout the country, with a vibrant market for private flats in Pyongyang. And a wealthy marketeering caste has arisen: donju, or “money masters,”…
…Pyongyang has made unknown millions abroad from what we might call its own style of human trafficking: profiting off the tens of thousands of workers in labor gangs it has sent to China, Russia, the Middle East, and even parts of Europe. No less inventive has been Pyongyang’s apparent monetization of its growing capacity for cyberwarfare through international bank robbery. …
…Barely weeks after Tehran inked its September 2012 Scientific Cooperation Agreement with Pyongyang, the won suddenly ended its decade-long freefall and finally achieved exchange-rate stability. …
FIVE
… China and Russia flagrantly and routinely violate the very sanctions their own Security Council representatives voted to impose. Most countries around the world still ignore them, too. In early 2017, the UN’s Panel of Experts on the sanctions reported that 116 of the UN’s 193 members had not yet bothered even to file implementation reports on the then-latest round (UNSC 2270, levied in response to Pyongyang’s fifth nuclear blast). The previous year, the Panel noted that 90 countries had never reported on any of the sanction resolutions against North Korea (eight at that time, the first of them ratified a decade before that report). …
As 2018 commences, three big changes …
SIX
… The Achilles’ heel of the North Korean economy – and thus, of Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile programs – is its existential dependence on foreign aid and outside money. …
Washington can also take the lead in lobbying governments to shut down the North Korean work crews operating within their own countries – these are too close to slave labor for comfort. This need not be quiet diplomacy. The complicit governments in question, including Beijing and Putin’s Kremlin, deserve to be called out publicly if they are intransigent. …
SEVEN
… America gets to decide who can, and who cannot, engage in the dollar-denominated financial transactions with the myriad of correspondent banks serving the globe, for which the Federal Reserve Bank is the clearing house. Existing legislation and executive orders already provide the U.S. government with a panoply of instruments for inflicting nuanced and escalating economic penalties and losses on…
…we should not lose sight of the money that North Korea receives through arrangements with other governments -including states in Africa and the Middle East that receive U.S. foreign aid. …
…some of the best work mapping out the connections between Chinese front companies and the North Korean military these days should apparently come from a small think tank, C4ADS, that relies entirely on open sources. …
…we can help shut down North Korea’s worldwide criminal enterprises, arrest their international accomplices, freeze and seize violators’ overseas assets (not just Kim Jong Un’s assets: think Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, and the rest), and levy potentially devastating fines against…
EIGHT
… North Korea will test the stomach and the will of the pressure alliance, threatening what sees as the campaign’s weakest and the most exposed elements and ranks. …
… There are good reasons to think North Korea would not resort to first use of nuclear weapons, most compelling among them, its own state-enshrined doctrine known as “Ten Principles for the Establishment of a Monolithic Ideology.” (The essence of this doctrine: The Hive must keep the Queen safe, and at all cost.) But there is no sugarcoating the terrible risks, including risks of miscalculation…


Texas Vol.4


https://twitter.com/KeepTexasGreen/status/933105021486383104


Middle East Vol.5 (Iran Vol.5 – Nuclear Agreement Vol.5)


https://twitter.com/_JMBP_/status/947652984183427073


Middle East Vol.4 (Iran Vol.4 – Nuclear Agreement Vol.4)

What the Iran nuclear deal means for oil prices (07/15/2017) | @bradplumer @vox
Oil prices slide as Iran’s nuclear deal spells trouble for U.S. shale (07/14/2015) | Geoffrey Smith @fortune
How Would The Iran Nuclear Deal Impact Oil Prices? (06/29/2015) | @forbes
Iran-US Interim Agreement: Historic Breakthrough or Historic Sellout? (12/10/2013) | Dr James Petras @NewsBud_
Iran-US Regional Relations Subsequent to Nuclear Agreement (07/26/2015) | Masoud Rezaei @Iran_Review
World powers reach nuclear deal with Iran to freeze its nuclear program (11/24/2013) | Anne Gearan and Joby Warrick @washingtonpost
Why Europe Backs Obama on Iran (04/07/2015) | Carl Bildt @berggruenInst @HuffPost
Iran Nuclear Agreement | @plough_shares
Iran: Inside the Deal | @AJEnglish
Nuclear Iran | @cbsnews
Iran | @bilaterals_org


Middle East Vol.3 (Iran Vol.3 – Nuclear Agreement Vol.3)

Ernest J. Moniz Addresses Global Nuclear Risks (Speech; 01/11/2018)
Information Note on EU sanctions to be lifted under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) (PDF; 23/01/2016)
Annex II: Sanctions-related commitments | @StateDept


Iran: One year since sanctions relief (17/01/2017) | Henry Smith @Control_Risks
Iran: Flexibility in contract negotiations to arise out of uneven enforcement of local content regulations (10/05/2017) | Henry Smith @Control_Risks


Middle East Vol.2 (Iran Vol.2 – Nuclear Agreement Vol.2)

Why the Iran protests matter (Voice; 01/02/2018) | Suzanne Maloney @BrookingsFP
Iran nuclear deal: Key details (13/10/2017) | @BBC
Iran Nuclear Agreement (PDF; 09/15/2017) | Kenneth Katzman & Paul K. Kerr @CRS4Congress
Full text of the Iran nuclear deal (14/07/2015) | @washingtonpost
Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions and Political Theory (06/03/2012) | Allison Kushner @FPA_ORG
HARVARD POLL ON RENEGOTIATING IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL USED “BLATANTLY BIASED QUESTION” (10/28/2017) | Murtaza Hussain @theintercept
Saving the Iran Nuclear Deal, Despite Trump’s Decertification (13/10/2017) | @CrisisGroup
The Real Promise of the US-Iran Agreement – Yes, it will prevent Iran from developing nukes. But it could also transform the Middle East, bringing  order and peace to a region falling into chaos. (07/16/2015) | @thenation
Proxy War Over Iran Nuclear Deal Divides U.S., Europe at UN (10/12/2017) | Kambiz Foroohar @bpolitics
The Iran Nuclear Deal – A Simple Guide (03/31/2015) | @nytimes
Trade – Iran | @EU_Commission


https://twitter.com/CFR_org/status/952571019239149568


Middle East Vol.1 (Iran Vol.1 – Nuclear Agreement Vol.1)


Free papers, reports, et al. Vol.33 (U.S. maps)


Free papers, reports, et al. Vol.31


Free papers, reports, et al. Vol.30