UK Vol.50 (Post-EUref tweets Vol.3)

Here is just a part of (analytical) tweets concerning the Brexit through early AM 29 June (BST). Excerpts are on our own.

16 things you need to know about the process of leaving the EU | @ConUnit_UCL
… 8. The process of withdrawal will involve three sets of negotiations:
First will be the negotiation of the withdrawal terms themselves. These will likely include, for example, an agreement on the rights of UK citizens already resident in other member states and of EU citizens resident in the UK. As Professor Sionaidh Douglas-Scott has explained, those rights – contrary to what some have said – are for the most part not protected under existing international law.
Second, it will be necessary to negotiate a trade deal with the EU. The official Vote Leave campaign confirmed that it wanted such a deal and correctly pointed out that everyone’s interests would be served by having one. … But there will be greater difficulties in services. Open Europe (which campaigns for EU reform and was neutral in the referendum) highlights particular difficulties in financial services, where it rates the chances of maintaining current levels of access to the EU as ‘low’.
Third, the UK will have to negotiate the terms of its membership of the WTO and will want also to negotiate trade deals with the over 50 countries that currently have such deals with the EU, as the existing arrangements will no longer apply to the UK from the moment of Brexit. The WTO itself has warned that this will not be straightforward: the UK will not be allowed just to ‘cut and paste’ the terms of WTO membership that it currently has through its EU membership. Similarly, while we might hope that other countries will agree quickly to extend the EU rules to the UK, we cannot presume that all will – and the UK itself might want different terms in some cases.

What does triggering Article 50 mean for the UK? Our @alanjrenwick explains | @ConUnit_UCL
… 3. The terms of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU and the nature of our future relationship with the EU will be worked out through negotiations with the remaining 27 member states, as set out in Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty.
4. Article 50 skews the balance of power in the negotiations in favour of the continuing member states. That is because of the two-year rule and the unanimity requirement for extensions to that period.
5. It is sensible that the Prime Minister has left triggering Article 50 to his successor.
6. It is vanishingly unlikely that the UK could withdraw without triggering Article 50 at all.
7. Both sides in the campaign have agreed that this whole process will take several years, during which the UK will remain in the EU. …

… Scenario 1: avoiding Article 50 to avoid Brexit
… Boris Johnson said ‘There is only one way to get the change we need, and that is to vote to go, because all EU history shows that they only really listen to a population when it says No.’ …
Scenario 2: avoiding Article 50 to secure better Brexit terms
… Indeed, the Vote Leave campaign appears to recognise … ‘We do not necessarily have to use Article 50 – we may agree with the EU another path that is in both our interests.’ …

Constitution Unit briefing paper: ‘Brexit: Its Consequences for Devolution and the Union’ | @DanielGover
… Under the Sewel Convention, however, the UK government has said that it will not normally legislate on a devolved matter without the consent of the devolved legislature, and similarly always sought the consent of the devolved legislatures, before extending their powers… Sionaidh Douglas-Scott suggested that if they wished to express their opposition to Brexit, or to increase their leverage during the Brexit negotiations, the devolved assemblies might be reluctant to grant legislative consent to the widening of their powers implied in removing the EU law constraint. This would take us into uncharted constitutional territory. …

Will Brexit lead to the break up of the UK? via @ConUnit_UCL | @Huw_Pritchard
… First, forecasts of the financial viability of an independent Scotland depend heavily on the oil price… Second, if an independent Scotland joined (or remained in) the EU, while England and Wales headed for Brexit, that might require for the first time the creation of a hard land border between England and Scotland. Third, if Scotland has to re-apply to join the EU, it may be required to join the Euro, which is a requirement for all new member states. This last factor might be a reason for Scotland seeking to hold an independence referendum soon, before the UK leaves the EU, so that Scotland does not have to re-apply from outside. The Scottish Parliament does not have a clear power to hold an independence referendum, because under the Scotland Act 1998 the constitution is a reserved matter…

IFS Director Paul Johnson reflects on the role & impact of economists in the referendum debate | @EconUCL
… Of course, other things mattered, and mattered enormously, but it is clear that economists’ warnings were not understood or believed by many. So we economists need to be asking ourselves why that was the case, why our near-unanimity did not cut  through. In short, we need to understand the abject failure of our profession to persuade the public about the consequences of a Leave vote. …

Political and legal consequences of Brexit for the UK and the EU | @ConUnit_UCL

This interesting analysis by Joshua Rozenberg @guardian cites Lord Lisvane on our blog | @ConUnit_UCL
… So I would expect the UK’s negotiations with Brussels – ahead of an article 50 notification – to continue into next year. If there is a significantly better deal on offer, the new prime minister might choose to put it to the people – not, I suspect, by holding another referendum but by calling an early general election.
The Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 allows for this in two possible ways. One would require the support of two-thirds of the House of Commons. The other can be done by passing a vote of confidence on a simple majority…
… my own view is that the government will require, at the very least, a majority vote in the House of Commons before proceeding. One might have argued that a kamikaze prime minister could have triggered article 50 immediately after the referendum result was declared, using his prerogative powers. Those powers are used to sign treaties but not, I would argue, to put them into effect in the UK. In any event, there is a growing constitutional convention that prerogative powers are subject to parliamentary approval, as we saw with the Commons vote in August 2013 against air strikes on Syria.
… Lord Lisvane, the former clerk to the House of Commons, has pointed out that it is not as simple as repealing the European Communities Act 1972, under which the UK joined what is now the EU.

As well as our analysis, here’s @ProfMarkElliott’s excellent briefing on constitutional fallout from #EUref result | @ConUnit_UCL
First… as a matter of international law, the UK as a State continues to be subject to its obligations under the EU treaties, and that, under the 1972 Act, EU law remains applicable in the UK and has priority over UK law. Legally and constitutionally, nothing has changed yet. …
Second… Once the Member State makes the decision to withdraw and gives the European Council notice of its intention to leave, the clock begins running and — subject to two exceptions — the treaties cease to apply to the departing Member State after two years. The first exception is that the two-year rule does not apply if the departing State reaches agreement on the terms of departure before the expiry of the two-year period. The second exception is that the European Council — with the agreement of the departing State — can agree to extend the negotiation period beyond two years.
Third… The legislation that provided for a referendum to be held said nothing whatever about the effect of the outcome of the referendum, and the result does not place the Government under any legal obligation to secure Brexit. … Rather, the will of the people has been expressed through an advisory referendum, and the making of the decision whether to withdraw remains a matter for the Government. However… Political reality is something else entirely. …

Do people tend to vote against change in referendums? | @UCL_EI
… Looking at all national…referendums from democracies since 1990…, we can consider whether the status-quo option tends to win. We find that actually the change option won a majority of the votes cast in 186 out of 268 referendums, i.e. 69 per cent of the time.
On the other hand, that figure might be misleading. Many countries have extra thresholds for a vote for change to count as valid: either that turnout must exceed a certain minimum or that support for change must pass a minimum proportion of the eligible electorate. Once we take this into account, only 106 of the 268 referendums (40 per cent) have actually passed.
The question therefore arises of which of these measures more accurately reflects how often publics are willing to back change. …

It’s Brexit. As the UK – and Europe – wakes up to a new reality, here is a first round of reactions from UCL staff | @UCL_EI

UCL Provost’s video message about the EU Referendum result, reassuring UCL staff and students from the EU | @uclspp

Leaving the EU: UCL’s statement | @ucl

Lastly, our final #EUref forecast which predicts that Remain will win 52-48 | @ConUnit_UCL

200 academics led by @alanjrenwick @ConUnit_UCL sign letter criticising deliberate misinformation in EU Referendum | @uclnews

Brexit: what’s going to happen to our money now we’re leaving the EU? @swatdhingraLSE cited | @CEP_LSE
…the collapse in the pound would likely lead to a 3% rise in inflation, to between 4% and 4.5% by late 2017.
… Remain argued we could be in for a year-long recession, with at least 500,000 jobs lost and GDP around 3.6% lower than if we’d stayed in the EU. Real wages could be nearly 3% lower now, coming to a reduction of £800 a year for someone working full-time on the average wage…
… Britain will now be less attractive to foreign investors, with trade taking a knock of up to 2.6%. Manufacturing would also suffer, with car production dropping by 12% and car prices rising by 2% on average…

The EU isn’t snookering Britain. Britain is hoodwinking the EU. Comment from @johnvanreenen | @CEP_LSE

How bad will Brexit get? @johnvanreenen & other economists & economic organisations’ views, via @voxdotcom | @LSEEcon
Should We Stay or Should We Go?: The economic consequences of leaving the EU [PDF] | Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and Thomas Sampson
… On average, trade agreements the EU has entered into over the past two decades have increased the quality of UK imports from its FTA partners by 26% and lowered the quality-adjusted price of imports by 19%… Overall, consumer prices fell by 0.5% for UK consumers as a result of FTAs with trade partners that are not EU member states, saving UK consumers £5.3 billion per year.
…Part of the attraction of the UK for foreign companies is as an export platform to the rest of the EU, so if the UK is outside the trading bloc, this position is likely to be threatened. This matters because foreign multinationals tend to be high productivity firms and they bring new technologies and management skills
with them. There is also some evidence of positive productivity spillovers from FDI undertaken in the UK. Indeed, given the large sunk costs involved in FDI, the uncertainty generated by the possibility of an in-or-out referendum may have a negative impact on investment in the run-up to the vote…

Would it fly? A possible Article 50 route to a second referendum… | @lsebrexitvote

External perspectives on Brexit? Prof Kevin Featherstone’s LSE Commission report | @LSEEI
[PDF] External Perspectives on the UK’s membership of the European Union: Report of the hearing held on 1st March, 2016 | LSE Commission on the Future of Britain in Europe (Rapporteur: Kevin Featherstone (LSE))
• The immediate ‘Brexit’ impact would be shock and uncertainty over how it can be managed. The best strategy for Britain’s partners would be to wait for London to present its proposals for a future relationship. Importantly the 27 are unlikely to agree a first offer.
• The alternatives to EU membership (following the Norwegian, Swiss, or Canadian models) are unclear, would be costly for the UK and produce few advantages. The search for a different solution might set precedents for new framework agreements with other countries like Turkey and Ukraine.
• Economically, both sides will have an interest in trying to reach a trading deal as soon as possible, if the political climate allows it.
• Brexit will threaten an important market for continental exporters.
Likewise, the EU27 represent a major market for UK exports.
• On the EU side, member states will lose a major net contributor to the EU budget. They may well seek a high price for continued access to the single market.
• Financially, the general uncertainty of a Brexit vote is likely to discourage FDI into Britain.
• The prospect of restrictions on free movement between the UK and the rest of the EU would likely entail economic costs for both sides.
• Without Britain, the EU might become more ‘inward-looking’. In Council decision-making with qualified majority voting, France will become more pivotal in a number of areas. Britain is a long-standing advocate of freer trade and meaningful structural reforms. The relevant coalitions supporting such policies in EU meetings may be significantly weakened.
• The EU would lose a member with one of its biggest military and diplomatic capacities, is its main advocate of interventionism, and which has the strongest link with Washington. ‘Brexit’ will weaken Europe’s ability to stand up to Putin’s aggression, its response to the
challenges of jihadism, and its rapport with East Asia.
• Politically, the domestic impact for Britain’s partners will be a boost to the extremes and to populists who advocate a block on Europe’s development or even their own exit.
• The presidential prospects of Marine Le Pen in France will look brighter and the voices of the far right in places like Hungary, the Netherlands, Austria, Greece and Poland will become louder.
• Following a ‘Brexit’ vote, the taboo over ‘GREXIT’ may begin to be lifted.
• Perhaps because other member states have been slow to react to the prospect of ‘Brexit’, a ‘no’ vote will shake the EU suddenly and deeply. It will pile on the agony amidst the migration and debt crises and deepen the general air of self-doubt.

After shock #eurefresult, what happens next? Full guide to Brexit negotiations from LSE’s foreign policy think tank Dr @timothyloliver | @lseideas
NEGOTIATION 2: UK Governance
NEGOTIATION 3: UK and non-EU Countries
NEGOTIATION 5: Within the EU
Negotiation 7: The EU and the rest of Europe
Negotiation 8: The EU and the rest of the World
Negotiation 9: Ongoing EU business
Austria: Making use of UK-EU tensions for domestic purposes.
Belgium: Support for the UK staying in the EU, but European integration has priority.
Bulgaria: Brexit would be like UEFA without England’s national team and Wayne Rooney’s goals.
Croatia: a strong desire to see the UK stay.
Czech Republic: A United Europe is the Priority.
Denmark: Quiet but clear support for a close UK-EU arrangement.
Estonia: Practical questions for the Estonian EU Presidency.
Finland: Seeking good EU-UK relations, but the EU is the first priority.
France: Brexit or not, the EU shall not recede.
Germany: Thinking less about the UK and EU-UK relations, and more about the EU as a whole.
Greece: Concerns about the unity of the EU and Eurozone.
Hungary: Seeking a quick exit deal.
Ireland: An exercise in damage limitation.
Italy: Supports EU Integration with or without the UK.
Latvia: Safeguarding the EU project.
Lithuania: Brexit could have a hazardous impact on “ever closer union”.
Luxembourg: Protecting European Integration and Financial Services.
Malta: One of the Countries Likely to be most affected by Brexit.
Netherlands: Helpful, but no blank check.
Poland: Going the extra mile for Britain but not at all costs.
Portugal: Balancing a centuries-old alliance with a modern commitment to the EU.
Romania: Continued free movement to the UK will be the ultimate redline.
Slovakia: Quiet anticipation at the helm of the EU Council.
Slovenia: Hoping for a remain vote.
Spain: Brexit will be seen through domestic politics.
Sweden: Prioritising geopolitics and cultural proximity with the UK.

#LSEBrexitVote #EUref: A kingdom of many parts: analysing how Londoners and the English view the EU is key Dr @timothyloliver | @LSEpoliticsblog
EU approval in UK
To be or not to be in Europe: is that the question? Britain’s European question and an in/out referendum [PDF] | @timothyloliver
…whether the decision is to stay in or leave the EU, in order not to raise false expectations in both Britain and the EU the referendum must then be followed by better management of the European question. Failure to do so would allow the poison to return,
meaning the referendum would have been nothing more than a placebo.
So how can Britain’s European question be better managed? Here we might look to the debate in Scotland about its relationship with the rest of Britain. As James Mitchell has argued, the ‘Scottish question’—one of party politics, identity, constitution and political economy—can never be entirely answered, either through independence or through remaining in the United Kingdom…

Delaying talks with the rest of the EU is fraught with economic risk, warns @LSEEI Iain Begg | @lsebrexitvote
… A particular concern is the growing deficit on the current account of the balance of payments, which reached 5.2% of GDP in 2015 and, in the absence of shocks during 2016, was expected to stabilise at this level. … One of the last analyses issued prior to the referendum by the Treasury set out two scenarios for these effects, labelled respectively as ‘shock’ and ‘severe shock’. In both cases, three channels of negative effects were identified, with the differences between the scenarios arising from the intensity of the effects. They are: the uncertainty about the terms of a new deal between the UK, the remainder of the EU (rEU) and other parts of the world; the transitional costs of shifting to a new regime for trade and investment; and the effects on jobs and growth of financial stability.

Brexit against the wishes of Scotland and Northern Ireland violates the UK’s constitution | @LSEEuroppblog
… EU law is incorporated directly into the devolution statutes in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. Section 29(2)(d) of the Scotland Act 1998, for example, provides that acts of the Scottish Parliament that are incompatible with EU law are ‘not law’. A similar provision, section 6(2)(d), appears in the Northern Ireland Act 1998. Indeed, the status of the UK and Ireland as EU member states and signatories to the European Convention on Human Rights was fundamental to the negotiation of the Belfast or ‘Good Friday’ Agreement.
Amending the devolution legislation would be technically easy, but politically hazardous. It would add fuel to the fire stoked up by Scottish demands for independence. It would place ‘a bomb under the Irish peace process’. If Westminster is serious about Brexit it will have to terminate the devolution settlement it has so carefully crafted since before 1997…

Why Brexit Might Not Happen at All via @JohnCassidy | @LSEEurocrisis
… One possibility being floated by some pro-E.U. campaigners is a vote in the House of Commons against invoking Article 50. …under the British system, sovereignty rests in Parliament, and so the Leave vote was purely advisory.
… A more likely outcome is a general election, a second referendum, or both. In 2011, Britain switched to a system of five-year fixed-term Parliaments, and under that system the next election isn’t due until 2020. But the Brexit crisis has already generated calls for the fixed term to be junked.

The UK is Reaping What the British Media Have Been Sowing for a Long Time by @Maria_Kyriakid | @LSEEurocrisis
… Rupert Murdoch’s media have been the ringleaders of a blatant and well-sustained anti-EU campaign throughout the years of his reign in the British media landscape, a hostility based on Murdoch’s inclination for low taxes and weak media regulation.
…More media space and attention has been devoted to apparent internal conflicts within the Left over the last months rather than the eminent risk of a Brexit… What was needed was a more sustained coverage of the significance of the EU…

@borisjohnson: I cannot stress too much that Britain is part of Europe – and always will be | @LSEEurocrisis

The Future of Europe: So What if the British Are Leaving? via @SPIEGELONLINE | @LSEEurocrisis
… It is an irony of history that even if the British do not get the deal Prime Minister David Cameron negotiated with the other EU leaders, the remaining 27 countries could still implement some of its provisions. For example, a Romanian worker in Germany, whose children still live in Romania, should probably not be entitled to generous German child benefits. …

From our archive: Has the EU failed us, or have we failed to forge a European identity? by @prentoulis | @LSEEurocrisis
…There has been little enthusiasm in Britain for the ‘spirit’ of the Union, no desire for anything more than an instrumental relationship.
…Only a very small part of what the European project is or could be, is seen as relevant for Britain: it is good for business, and, yes, it may help maintain Britain’s position in the world – and one sometimes has to join the ‘allies’ in their dubious foreign endeavours. But it would be un-British to get too involved…
To be fair, it is not only Britain which is keen to retreat to its national borders and prioritize its national interests. The recent Swedish and Danish proposals that amount to the cancellation of Schengen are a self interested response to what actually is a European-wide challenge…
…Perhaps its biggest failure has been its inability to forge a European identity capable of transcending national borders. The emergence of new nationalisms (exploited skilfully by the far right), is an extremely worrying result of this failure.

Who won the referendum? via @openDemocracy by @profAFinlayson | @LSEEurocrisis
…a good way of understanding the politics of the UK right now is in terms of five different kinds of reaction to these cultural and economic changes…
Firstly, there are those people who like and benefit from both the cultural and economic effects… Most of these people voted Remain.
Secondly, there are people who like and benefit from the cultural effects of globalisation but not the economic ones… Remain.
Thirdly, there are people who like or benefit from the economic effects of globalisation but not the cultural effects… Leave.
Fourthly, there are those people who don’t like and have not benefited from either the cultural or economic effects of globalisation… Leave.
The Leave campaign much more clearly understood that the campaign was not really about the EU. It focused on cultural experiences and attitudes – hostility to the rules and regulations of social liberalisation, national pride and racial prejudice and wrapped an appeal to economic experiences within it…
The fifth group is those who like and benefit from both cultural and economic globalisation – but not as much as they would like… For these people the EU is a brake on progress: it is too slow and cumbersome, reliant as it is on face-to-face meetings, consultation and consensus, rules and procedures… they believe that movement should be freely determined by economic demand rather than the kinds of old-fashioned rights which enable EU citizens to go anywhere in the EU…
…They want to weaken the forces that prevent them from shaping the future as they imagine it must be: the sentimental Left, the statist EU, the traditional Conservative party…

Can Brexit Be Overturned? What Brits Are Asking Each Other Today via @business | @LSEEurocrisis

Thoughts on the sociology of Brexit | @LSEEurocrisis
…many Leavers believed that withdrawing from the EU wouldn’t really change things one way or the other, but they still wanted to do it… The contemporary populist promise to make Britain or American ‘great again’ … is not a pledge or a policy platform; it’s not to be measured in terms of results. When made by the likes of Boris Johnson, it’s not even clear if it’s meant seriously or not. It’s more an offer of a collective real-time halucination, that can be indulged in like a video game.
…What is a ‘fact’ exactly?…
…The attempt to reduce politics to a utilitarian science (most often, to neo-classical economics) eventually backfires, once the science in question then starts to become politicised. ‘Evidence-based policy’ is now far too long in the tooth to be treated entirely credulously, and people tacitly understand that it often involves a lot of ‘policy-based evidence’…

A Divided and Broken post-EUropean Britain via @ellie_knott | @LSEEurocrisis

The Disunited Kingdom: Scotland is dragged out by England New referendum highly likely via @TheEconomist | @LSEEurocrisis

Brexit vote sparks huge uncertainty for UK universities via @timeshighered @SamuelJPElliott | @LSEEurocrisis
“This outcome provides a real challenge for our sector. Science is an area where the relationship between the UK and the EU was particularly beneficial. Not least because scientists won billions of pounds of research funding for the UK, above and beyond what we put in. (€8.8bn between 2007 and 2013.) In addition, free movement of people in the EU made it easy for scientists to travel, collaborate and share ideas with the best in Europe and for companies and universities in the UK to easily access top talent from Europe.”

The downfall of David Cameron: a European tragedy | @LSEEurocrisis
…Instead, fatally as it has now transpired, he was always a “Eurosceptic – but not as Eurosceptic as you are”, as he put it to his first political boss, the former chancellor Norman Lamont. Cameron’s lifelong soft Euroscepticism meant he had no answer to the hardliners on Europe once the issue had become turbocharged by austerity and immigration…
The 2010 election, which was in most respects a triumph for Cameron, ensured ever more frantic juggling. Going into coalition with the pro-European Liberal Democrats meant the referendum on UK membership of the EU that many Conservatives continued to advocate was put in the deep freeze. The coalition’s official policy was that there would be no in/out referendum and that only Cameron and Nick Clegg could settle European policy between them.
…The hard right’s revenge came in October 2011 when the MP David Nuttall’s motion for a referendum triggered the largest Tory postwar revolt on Europe, with 81 Eurosceptics voting against the government.
Two months later, Cameron tried to assuage his rebels by vetoing a eurozone rescue plan at an EU summit in Brussels. The clashes left Cameron isolated on both fronts…
“He’s so busy wondering how to get through the next few weeks that he could endanger Britain’s international position for the next few decades. It’s all very very risky,”…“You may be right. But what else can I do? My backbenchers are unbelievably Eurosceptic and Ukip are breathing down my neck.” After a long buildup, Cameron finally made his referendum pledge in 2013…
Three years ago, in a comment on Cameron’s referendum pledge in the Bloomberg speech, Tony Blair likened it to a comedy western of the 1970s. “It reminds me a bit of the Mel Brooks comedy Blazing Saddles where the sheriff says at one point as he holds a gun to his own head: ‘If you don’t do what I want I’ll blow my brains out,’” Blair warned. This week, Cameron has done just that.

Brexit leaves Greece dangling precariously via @MacroPolis_gr by @NickMalkoutzis | @LSEEurocrisis
…Overall, the International Monetary Fund sees the spillover effect from a Brexit on the Greek economy at close to 0.5 percent of GDP under the adverse scenario. For many eurozone economies this may seem like a rounding error but for Greece, which is in line for a 0.3 percent of GDP contraction this year, it could be enough to derail its attempts to meet the fiscal targets in its adjustment programme…

A message to the LSE community after the EU Referendum result | @LSEnews

A message to the LSE community after #EURef result from LSE Director @craigjcalhoun & Interim Director Julia Black | @LSEnews

Kevin Featherstone “There has rarely been a more interesting or important time to study Europe” | @LSEEI

Impact of Brexit – #HigherEd & Research? See @annecorb LSE Commission report | @LSEEI
‘Remain’ reflects the sector’s concerns, ‘leave’ sets out to appeal to those who want the big picture, not the detail… ‘Leave’ has not made a plausible case…

LSE Commission report @IainBeggLSE – Economic Impact of Brexit | @LSEEI

Brexit Analysis No.8 #BrexitOrNot BREXIT 2016: Policy Analysis from the Centre for Economic Performance @CEP_LSE

Brexit Analysis No.7 @CEP_LSE Who Bears the Pain? How the costs of Brexit would be distributed across income groups

Brexit Analysis No.6 ‘ECONOMISTS FOR BREXIT’: A critique from @CEP_LSE

Brexit Analysis No.5 @CEP_LSE Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK

Brexit Analysis No.4 UK Treasury analysis of ‘long-term economic impact of EU membership+alternatives’: @CEP_LSE
long-run costs

Brexit Analysis No.3 @CEP_LSE The impact of Brexit on foreign investment in the UK

Brexit Analysis No.2 @CEP_LSE The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards

Brexit Analysis No.1 @CEP_LSE Life after Brexit : What are the UK’s options outside the European Union?

#VoteRemain? Not sure? Help is at hand! BREXIT 2016: Policy Analysis from @CEP_LSE @swatdhingraLSE @johnvanreenen +
PDF: include the above No.1-8.

Scenarios of a new UK-EU relationship [w PDF]: A ‘soft’ Brexit, by @swatdhingraLSE | @LSEEcon
… Just from the channel of reduced trade, the effects of Brexit would be equivalent to a fall in British income of between 1.3% and 2.6%. And once we include back of the envelope calculations for the long-run effects of Brexit on productivity, the decline in income increases to between 6.3% and 9.5%. Some of these losses can
be reduced by future trade and investment arrangements with the EU after a soft Brexit. But the possible political or economic benefits of Brexit, such as better regulation, would have to be very large to fully outweigh such losses.

Foreign investors love Britain – but Brexit would end the affair | @LSEpoliticsblog
… There are at least three reasons:
First, being fully in the single market makes the UK an attractive export platform for multinationals as they do not face the potentially large costs from tariff and non-tariff barriers when exporting to the rest of the EU.
Second, multinationals have complex supply chains and many co-ordination costs between their headquarters and local branches. These would become more difficult to manage if the UK left the EU.
Third, uncertainty over the shape of the future trade arrangements between the UK and EU would also tend to dampen FDI. …

What Brexit might do to the British economy @swatdhingraLSE via @NewsHour on @YouTube | @CEP_LSE

@swatdhingraLSE says Brexit could damage the UK-India trade relationship | @The_IGC

UK areas with stagnant wages are most anti-EU @s_machin_ via @FT | @CEP_LSE

The Great Pushback: Western Politics and Dynamics of Exclusion | @LSEEurocrisis

Britain riding the tectonic plates via @openDemocracy| @LSEEurocrisis

EU referendum: economic message lost on voters @TheIFS @CEP_LSE @NIESRorg | @ESRCpress

‘This result should not come as a shock’ @sarahobolt @LSEEI | @lsebrexitvote
…We also know that referendums are highly unpredictable, and that voters often vote against proposals put to them by the government and supported by mainstream political parties and experts. …
… One reason why referendum outcomes are particularly unpredictable is that they present ordinary citizens with an opportunity to “stick it” to the political establishment. A division found in many referendums, including this one, is thus one between “the ordinary people” and “the elite”. This populist argument was successfully exploited by the Leave camp who portrayed the referendum as a chance for ordinary citizens to “take back control” from the elites in Brussels. …

Why I hope the UK will decide to Remain in the EU. My latest #EUref blog @LSEEuroppblog. | @DanMulhall
…a UK exit from the EU carries many risks – for Ireland, for our relations with the UK, for North-South ties in Ireland and for Europe. The current open border between North and South in Ireland could not be guaranteed to continue unchanged in a post-Brexit scenario. In the event of the UK leaving, we would also miss the productive partnership we have developed within the EU, where our two countries have discovered that we have very similar approaches to many of the issues on the EU policy agenda…

“Why Britain could have a great future outside a broken EU” via @MailOnline | @LSEEurocrisis
… Or take Italy, a country with an economy roughly comparable in size to our own. Its growth rate over the past eight years has been just 3 per cent. In the same period, free from the shackles of the euro, Britain has grown 35 per cent.
… We needn’t look far for the explanation. For not only is the euro destroying livelihoods, but the madness that is the free movement of peoples has brought waves of migrants sweeping across Europe, depressing wages, putting immense strain on housing and public services, undermining our security against criminals and terrorists — and making communities fear for their traditional ways of life.

Is the EU really run by unelected bureaucrats? by @simonjhix via @LSEEuroppblog | @LSEEurocrisis
…the Commission President and the individual Commissioners are not directly elected by the peoples of Europe.
First, the Commission’s power to propose legislation is much weaker than it at first seems… A Commission proposal only becomes law if it is approved by both a qualified-majority in the EU Council (unanimity in many sensitive areas) and a simple majority in the European Parliament…
Second, the Commission President and the Commissioners are indirectly elected. Under Article 17 of the EU treaty, as amended by the Lisbon Treaty, the Commission President is formally proposed by the European Council (the 28 heads of government of the EU member states), by a qualified-majority vote, and is then ‘elected’ by a majority vote in the European Parliament…
Then, once the Commission President is chosen, each EU member state nominates a Commissioner, and each Commissioner is then subject to a hearing in one of the committees of the European Parliament. If a committee issues a ‘negative opinion’ the candidate is usually withdrawn by the government concerned. After the hearings, the team of 28 is then subject to an up/down ‘investiture vote’ by a simple majority of the MEPs. …

New EU referendum polls suggest Remain is taking back the lead | @LSEEurocrisis

UK economy would be seriously weakened by Brexit, by Prof Nick Stern via @telebusiness @STICERD_LSE | @LSEEcon

Brexit: should the UK stay or walk away? Thomas Sampson interviewed by Radio New Zealand about the EU Referendum | @LSEEcon

Reading News With Economists: EU Referendum – Dr Thomas Sampson. By @EquiEcon | @LSEEcon

The ‘Britain Alone’ scenario: CEP@LSE’s critique of ‘Economists for Brexit’ | @LSEEuroppblog

Why Britain’s #EUref poses a challenge for the Labour Party. My piece in tomorrow’s @guardian | @GoodwinMJ

Left wingers for Brexit need to wake up to what they’re about to do via @ConversationUK | @LSEEurocrisis

UKIP’s ‘unethical’ anti-immigration poster @AJEnglish | @LSEEurocrisis

Le Pen hails Brexit victory and calls for referendum on EU in France | @LSEEuroppblog

Damaging consequences of Brexit: directors of three top economic research institutes in agreement, @LSEpoliticsblog | @econromesh

Brexit 2016 blogs: Comment+analysis by @CEP_LSE academics concerning the Referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU

Mervyn King talks to MoneyWeek about the EU referendum, monetary policy, & the IMF | @LSEEcon

In Feb 2015, a panel of @LSELaw experts discussed ‘Leaving the EU?’ | @LSELaw

UK Vol.49 (Post-EUref tweets Vol.2)

Here is just a part of (analytical) tweets concerning the Brexit through early AM 28 June (BST). Excerpts are on our own.

CELS Director @ProfKAArmstrong analysis of Brexit quoted in @POLITICOEurope piece on what happens next | @EULegalStudies
“The Vote Leave Framework for a New UK-EU Deal: Analysis” [PDF] | @ProfKAArmstrong
… The clear conclusion is that Article 50 TEU is the correct legal basis for the conduct of a withdrawal process and neither the experience of Greenland nor the Vienna Convention casts any doubt on that conclusion.
… The result may be something closer to the Swiss model with a withdrawal treaty acting as the basis for a free trade agreement with the arrangement supplemented where necessary by more sectoral agreements over time. But this may not correspond with the preferences of the other parties. …

@ProfKAArmstrong: Here’s my explanation for why Vote Leave Brexit roadmap implausible&… | @CUP_Law

Is a snap general election possible under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act? | @ProfMarkElliott
…two circumstances in which an early, or snap, election can be held. First, the Commons can deliberately trigger an early election if MPs representing two-thirds of all seats in the House support a motion in favour of an early election… Second, an early election is triggered under the Act if — on a simple majority — the Commons passes a motion that it “has no confidence” in the Government and then fails, within 14 days, to pass a motion saying that it does have confidence in the Government. …
…the referendum – legally speaking – was purely advisory. The legislation that allowed the referendum to take place did not invest the outcome of the referendum with any sort of legal effect. The UK Government is therefore not legally obliged by the referendum to trigger the Article 50 process. …

Can the EU force the UK to trigger the two-year Brexit process? | @ProfMarkElliott
… David Cameron clearly envisaged in his referendum statement that negotiations with the EU would not formally begin until his successor was in place in the autumn.
… two fundamental points about Article 50… The first is that Article 50 is wholly irrelevant unless and until a Member State has made a decision in accordance with its own constitutional arrangements to leave the EU. The second point is that once such a decision has been taken there is an obligation to notify the EU at which point the departing Member State loses control of the timetable: exit is (unless the EU agrees otherwise) irrevocably set for two years from the date of the notification. …

Here’s the full collection of my posts so far on the constitutional implications of Brexit | @ProfMarkElliott

EU Law Analysis: What next after the UK vote to leave the EU? | @mwgehring, Esq
Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty in detail
Article 50 is ‘only credible way’ for Brexit | @ProfKAArmstrong

Many thanks for underlining that Parliament must now play a much greater role in EU matters | @mwgehring, Esq

“Rather than leave the EU, the UK should confront its real problem: neo-liberalism gone too far” – do you agree? | Prof Vivien A. Schmidt @CambridgeUP
… As for the EU, don’t just blame Germany’s home grown neo-liberalism (ordo-liberalism) for the austerity-based macroeconomic policies that have generated slower growth for the Eurozone as a whole, let alone the tragedy of the Greek (non) bailout.  Why not recognize that the UK has had a hand in how the EU has developed.  As an integral partner in EU decision-making, British governments regularly approved EU policies in the Council, including the austerity policies for all of the EU. Moreover…

New maps from @geoviews give an interesting perspective on incresingly divided Britain | @oxsocsci

Brexit: “A bewildering act of self-harm” | Prof Sarah Harper @oxford_ageing
…three factors have emerged which are of real concern to the scientific endeavours we pursue here at the Institute of Population Ageing.
1. The complete public misunderstanding of the net contribution made by migrants to the UK – further inflamed by the press.
2. The skewed voting behaviour along age and income lines.
3. The concerning and ongoing lack of public understanding of scientific and other expert evidence – evidence seemingly ridiculed at every opportunity by some politicians.

“Brexit Negotiation Games” by Prof Horst Eidenmüller from @OxfordLawFac | @OxfordBLB
… Following such notification, a ‘withdrawal agreement’ shall be negotiated between the Council (of the European Union) and the respective Member State.  The agreement shall also set out the future relationship of that State with the Union.  It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.  ‘The Treaties [TEU and TFEU] shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in [Art 50(2)], unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period’ (Art 50(3)).  For the purposes of these provisions, the UK shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council representing it or in decisions concerning it (Art 50(4)).  A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Art 238(3)(b) TFEU.  Such majority requires at least 72% of the members of the Council representing the participating Member States, comprising at least 65 % of the population of these States.  At least 72% of 27 Member States (without the UK) means at least 19 Member States.  Germany’s population comprises 18.30%, France’s 14.97%, Italy’s 13.70%, Spain’s 10.47%, and Poland’s 8.57% of these 27 Member States.  No agreement can be concluded against the vote of Germany and France and any one of these three other Member States acting together. …

“one long exercise in damage limitation” – how will Brexit be negotiated? | @Politics_Oxford

Read up on the legal impact of Brexit | @OUPPolitics

Brexit as a message that politics can be about change; Prof @cjbickerton argues the case from the left, via @guardian | @OUPPolitics
… A UK exit from the EU would reveal how little of our politics is determined by what goes on in Brussels. Take immigration. I don’t believe immigration numbers will fall after Brexit. High rates of immigration into Britain are driven by a British growth model that favours expanding the labour force in place of more intensive forms of growth aimed at boosting productivity. Were the UK to leave the EU, this growth model would persist though the origins of immigrants may change.
The crucial difference is that politicians could no longer blame high rates of immigration on the EU. We would have to confront it as being at the centre of the British economic model and decide whether this is a model we want to keep. There is a world of difference between thinking of immigration as something foisted on to the UK by distant Brussels bureaucrats or as the result of a choice about how this country grows and creates wealth. The latter can only come with Brexit. …

Uncertainty abounds; Why markets are reacting negatively to news of Brexit via @TheEconomist | @OUPEconomics
… Investors hate uncertainty and the result of the referendum gives rise to a surfeit of it. But the falls in Asia’s equity markets are also in large part an early judgment about the impact on the world economy. … A recession in Britain nevertheless seems likely. Corporate investment will be hurt by uncertainty about future access to both the single market and to other places where Britain has piggybacked on trade deals negotiated by the EU. In unsettled times, businesses defer whatever spending they can. …

Brexit – how did this happen? 8 reasons for the success of the Leave campaign via @BBCNews | @OUPEconomics
… 4. Public stop listening to PM
David Cameron may have won one leadership contest, one (or two if you include the 2010 coalition-forming one) general elections and two referendums in the past ten years but this was the moment his luck ran out. …

Why did voters ignore the warnings of economists over Brexit? A case of identity trumping economics? via @TheEconomist | @OUPEconomics
… Accordingly, the Leave side promised supporters both a thriving economy and control over immigration. But Britons cannot have that outcome just by voting for it. If they want access to the EU’s single market and to enjoy the wealth it brings, they will have to accept free movement of people. If Britain rejects free movement, it will have to pay the price of being excluded from the single market. The country must pick between curbing migration and maximising wealth. … We believe that he or she should opt for a Norwegian-style deal that gives full access to the world’s biggest single market, but maintains the principle of the free movement of people. The reason is that this would maximise prosperity. And the supposed cost—migration—is actually beneficial, as Leave campaigners themselves have said. …

‘It is not hard to see why Leave won’ says @StephenDFisher @SociologyOxford #EURefResults | @oxsocsci

‘Brexit’ Talk on Social Media Favored the ‘Leave’ Side – JOHN HERRMAN via NYTimes | @OxfordQstep

“Now that the referendum is over, we can start the process that will leave elites more responsive to the public” Chris Baker | @OxPolBlog

Brexit and Political Education: Ariadne’s Thread Leads to Leave: An impressive list of academics, including s… | @Politics_Oxford

From the role of social media to immigration, six Oxford academics share their views on the #EURefResults @Medium | @UniofOxford

John Curtice of @NatCen on how the polls got it wrong again | @NuffieldLibrary

“Europe has lost trust, imagination and sex appeal” | @OxPolBlog

In light of Brexit Professor @SandraFredman calls for a re-commitment to the equality rights of every human being | @OxHRH

Read our latest blog Prof @RGWhitman talking about ‘The EEA: A safe harbour in the Brexit storm’ | @UKandEU

‘The Referendum Conundrum: Referenda or Referendums?’ [w PDF] | @CUP_PoliSci

Our Chief Executive, Peter Phillips, has issued a statement on the #EURefResults | @CambridgeUP

Here is the @UniofOxford statement on the #EURefResults | @OxHumanities

EUref vote by GE2015 vote shows how Europe splits traditional L-R parties in half; major party realignment ahead | @nikkon7

‘Remain’ or ‘leave’, learn more about Britain’s turbulent relationship with the EU in Continental Drift | @cambUP_History

Interesting to revisit @VivianeRedingEU speaking at @EULegalStudies MSL on UK & EU ‘Inevitably Drifting Apart?’ [Video] | @cambridgelaw

Browse our Europe reading list on the OUPblog for exclusive content | @alexguyver @OUPEconomics

While some come from the EU, and some are domestic, employment laws can often be a mixture of the two | @OUPAcademic

“The EU seeks not to replace States, but rather to achieve a better management of their interdependence” | Prof Stephen Weatherill @OUPAcademic
…It is a pernicious misrepresentation of the role of the EU. ‘Control’ is an illusion in a world of economic interdependence: unilateral State action lacks the necessary vigour to tackle the major problems that citizens expect to be addressed – climate change, economic reform, security, migration, and so on. States need to co-operate. That is what the EU is for. …

What will Brexit mean for the UK economy? @keithbreene via @wef | @OUPEconomics

UKvote won’t solve the pressure on social services in UK, this is the result of self-imposed austerity not of EU migration @cozzi1977 | @OUPEconomics

Remember Nick Clegg? This prophetic article he wrote on 22 June makes me think we’ll hear a lot more from him soon. | @SarmientoMir

What has the USA historically thought about the political union of western Europe? Does it matter? | @ContEuroHistory

UK Vol.48 (Post-EUref tweets)

Here is just a part of tweets concerning the Brexit from 24 to early AM 26 June (BST). Hope this sort of tiny database which has consequently arisen from our rough, limited-time, kind of fixed-point observation – harmless, of course – would be useful for all the people’s further understanding of the current situation.

For the first time since World War II, Western nationalism has beaten globalism in a major way | @voxdotcom

5 years after Brexit there will be no UK, others will have left EU, & the “special relationship” will be no more | @RichardHaass

@evanHD isn’t happy with this potential change of tone on freedom of movement | @BBCNewsnight

Four things Brexit campaigners have already u-turned | @Independent

Brexit is an opportunity for offshore buyers to snap up high-end properties at bargain price | @Forbes

17 experts on how Brexit will change the world | @politico

Analysis: “Brexit” unravels EU’s dream | @USATODAY

Brexit and the End of International Progressive Inevitability | @NRO

The British pound hit a 30-year low. Thanks to Brexit, the U.K. just went on sale. | @TravelLeisure

Brexit: expect a new prime minister, volatile markets and years of costly uncertainty | @TheEconomist

Why those who really wanted Brexit may soon regret it | @TorontoStar

Bitcoin saw a 4% increase after Brexit | @Forbes

Why Brexit might never happen | @Slate

These are the 6 biggest consequences to the Brexit vote so far | @TIME

@TurnbullMalcolm warns Australians to ‘expect the unexpected’ in the wake of Brexit | @abcnews

Investor George Soros calls for reconstruction of EU after ‘Brexit’ vote | @Reuters

This 1980 clip from ‘Yes Minister’ basically explains Brexit | @HuffPostUKCom

Mapped: Brexit’s economic aftermath | @ForeignPolicy

What Brexit might do to the British economy. @hari talks with prof. @swatdhingraLSE @LSEnews | @KCTS9

Brexit strips world’s 400 richest people of $127bn – Bloomberg | @RT_com

Instead of addressing their fundamental flaws, elites devote their energy to demonizing victims of their corruption | @theintercept

Here’s why British scientists are so opposed to Brexit | @techreview

Gold hits 2-year high after Brexit vote – and the fallout will only bring more gains | @business

Central banks ready to cooperate after Brexit result | @Reuters

Starved of resources, UK’s most deprived town pins hopes on Brexit | @Reuters

“Bracksies”: how Brexit could wind up not actually happening | @voxdotcom

Signs suggest warnings of Brexit upheaval could prove true | @nytimes

EU names Belgian to coordinate Brexit negotiations | @Reuters

How many Americans knew what Brexit was the first time they were asked about it? I haven’t encountered one. | @piersmorgan

Gary Johnson praises Brexit decision: UK is rejecting “crony capitalism” | @thehill

The Brexit is inspiring independence movements from Catalonia to Texas | @vicenews

Brexit: Environmentalists fear ‘bonfire’ of regulations | @wwwfoecouk

How the Brexit vote jeopardizes the future for UK scientists | @verge

Ricky Gervais has had his say on Brexit, and it’s bleak | @Independent

@GovMikeHuckabee: “When people say ‘diversity’ what they mean is uniformity.” | @FoxNews

What Brexit can teach us about the psychology of fear | @voxdotcom

Banks prepare to move thousands of jobs out of UK after Brexit vote | @thetimes

Belfast post office runs out of Irish passport application forms | @Independent_ie

Millennials blame older generations for Brexit, but whose fault is it really? | @vicenews

WATCH: @realDonaldTrump to @TomLlamasABC: Clinton “embarrassed” to talk Brexit on camera | @ABCPolitics

Brexit was fueled by irrational xenophobia, not real economic grievances | @voxdotcom

Brexit is good news says President of Iceland | @igeldard

Welsh Muslim told to ‘pack bags and go home’ after vote for Brexit | @Independent

Brexit has exposed the chasm between the Establishment… and the rest of us, writes Jeremy Paxman | @Telegraph

Bill Maher challenges Brexit “xenophobia” claims, harshly calls out liberal when he compares GOP to British Muslims | @theblaze

Post-Brexit world: Financial downturn, political turmoil & protests (LIVE UPDATES) | @RT_com

Here’s a demographic breakdown of who voted for the Brexit | @TheAtlantic

What Brexit supporters want is impossible, argues @Arturo_Sarukhan. Here’s why | @BrookingsInst

Putin on Brexit: ‘It’s comprehensible, no one wants to feed & subsidize weak economies’ | @RT_com

Why Brexit will raise trade barriers | @WSJ

Wow: Famed economist says Brexit signals THIS candidate will be President… | @AllenWest

The EU’s disintegration may now be inevitable, but that is no reason to give up, says @georgesoros | @ProSyn

Several bidders ‘close to abandoning Tata Steel takeover talks’ following Brexit result | @SWEveningPost

Brexit has exposed the chasm between the Establishment… and the rest of us | @TelePolitics

“The older generation have dug a grave for us”. These young Remain supporters gather for an anti-Brexit rally. | @Channel4News

Andrew Castle tears into ‘arrogant’ Jean-Claude Juncker over his response to brexit | @LBC

After Brexit: Germany and France May Begin to Follow Their Pro-Russian Instincts | @RussiaInsider

Scores of anti-Brexit protesters descend on Parliament Square | @standardnews

Let’s get this over with: Founding EU members want quick divorce from UK | @RT_com

For the U.S., Britain’s vote may be a warning of the limits of globalization | @nytimes

“Brexit is just the beginning of a popular revolt against elites” via @MKTWDelamaide | @MarketWatch

Brexit: the world’s most complex divorce is about to begin. Here’s how it might proceed | @FT

The day after Brexit – From petitions to acceptance @WasHasNaz has the reactions for you | @dwnews

Everyone can agree Brexit must be met with reform. But that word masks contradictory ideas | @TheEconomist

@PJHarveyUK reacts to Brexit vote in mid-concert speech | @pitchfork

Gold wins from Brexit. But other commodities lose | @TheEconomist

Shares down, jobs down, prices up? Business comes to terms with Brexit | @guardian

Why this Brexit market panic is a screaming buy for stock investors | @MarketWatch

What will Brexit mean for immigration? | @FT

These are the media’s best Brexit covers | @TIME

Brexit live: EU calls for new British PM in ‘days’ | @FT

Can Brexit be overturned? | @business

Trade and tourism will suffer most in these 6 EU nations because of Brexit | @business

The Americans’ guide to understanding Brexit: your questions answered | @guardian

Cornwall Council has asked for urgent guarantees over the €500m earmarked for the county from EU aid after Brexit | @itvwestcountry

Brexit explained for wrestling fans | @KayfabeNews

The Brexit crisis is a huge blow to Obama’s legacy | @businessinsider

Confused about the Brexit? We’ve got a cheat sheet | @latimes

Brexit was a harsh political awakening for young people, says @laraprendergast | @spectator

Investment banks are approaching regulators to secure licences and lining up executives to relocate after Brexit | @FT

“The Day After” Brilliant article on Brexit by JDiEM25er James K. Galbraith | @yanisvaroufakis

So, this happened. Brexit has the Tolerance Mob going after … Right Said Fred | @CR

The Brexit is happening. Here’s what that means for travelers | @CNTraveler

Nom nom nom. The delicious double standards (and tasty tears!) of the progressive establishment. | @BreitbartNews

A historical perspective on Friday’s Brexit vote | @HarvardBiz

Why the U.S. is freaked out about Brexit too | @cnni

Brexit a lesson for Trudeau to listen to average people | @Polkameister

Merkel: there is no need to be “nasty” during talks to discuss Britain’s exit from the EU | @SkyNews

Brexit stands as a warning to American conservatives | @guardian

The next dominoes to fall | @BreitbartNews

The struggle between nationalism and global leadership. Sir Harold Evans on Brexit. | @Reuters

The Brexit crisis is really an opportunity to create a better society – Jenny Jones | @guardian

Brexit inspires Dutch and French anti-immigrant, Islamophobic groups to seek referendums | @AJENews

Brexit: ‘I am gravely concerned. And you should be, too.’ @webbmedia | @Inc

Another group concerned about the impact of the Brexit: British scientists | @latimes

OPINION: Former MI6 spy on why Brexit makes America safer – @fxnopinion | @FoxNews

Newspapers around the world have their say on Brexit: “Anarachy in the UK” and “Brefugees welcome” are a selection | @Channel4News

EU chiefs: Brexit is “not an amicable divorce but it was also not an intimate love affair.” | @AJENews

Obama loses reliable partner, faces uncertainty after Brexit, report @joshledermanAP and @khennessey | @AP_Politics

Brexit: A very British revolution – a cry for liberty and a rebuke to the establishment by @FraserNelson via @WSJ | @BetterOffOut

What is Article 50 and why is it so central to the Brexit debate? | @guardian

Why Wales voted for Brexit | @Independent

A divided country: how and why Britain voted for Brexit | @Channel4News

Brexit: How The Oldies of Britian Stole The Younger Generation’s Future | @TheAffinityMag

The areas and demographics where the Brexit vote was won | @guardian

Brexit: people voted according to education, income and age | @FT

EU Referendum | @BBCBreaking

‘I’m full of regret’: extraordinary moment Brexit voter changes her mind | @Telegraph

Demographics, markets and migration: charting Brexit | @TheEconomist

What just happened? A Brexit explainer | @wef

Why the polls and social media got Brexit wrong | @Forbes

Brexit Is ‘The 1989 of This Generation’ | @V_of_Europe

The seven stages of Brexit grief, explained | @Independent

‘Brexit is an Eton Wall Game where poorest are put up against the wall and shot’ | @MirrorPolitics

Londoners sign petition for metropolis to stay in EU, Mayor Khan says city must have a say in Brexit negotiations | @AFP

Boris Johnson says Britain will continue to be a great European power | @rtenews

Brexit aftermath – in pictures | @guardian

Sky didn’t fall today, there is no global systemic crisis, but UK & EU both handling nitroglycerin… | @AmbroseEP

Why Brexit was a great idea | @NRO

Here’s how the Brexit will actually work | @ndtv

Brexit is terrifying — and no, not because of the economics | @voxdotcom

The seven stages of Brexit grief | @Independent

Opinion: After Brexit it’s clear: to save liberal democracy, politicians will have to reform capitalism | @FT

‘Why upset the apple cart?’ asks a farmer after Brexit | @guardian

Brexit: What we know and what we don’t know | @CBSNews

So the Brexit happened. Now what?  | @vicenews

What does Brexit mean to the world economy? The Economist: It’s grim | @ProPublica

UK votes to leave EU — what this might mean for the markets & your portfolio | @MerrillLynch

Excellent postmortem by @AnthonyBarnett. He had seen it coming! Blimey, it is Brexit! | @yanisvaroufakis

The post-Brexit financial world remains deeply uncertain | @guardian

Why Brexit is so bad for the economy | @TheAtlantic

Brits are still trying to figure out what Brexit is after voting for it | @ComplexMag

You don’t need to be an expert to understand this Brexit graph. Latest developments here | @BBCBusiness

After Brexit: The System Cannot Hold | @zerohedge

Diplomats from EU’s founding 6 nations are meeting in Berlin to discuss UK’s exit from bloc | @AP

Brexit FAQs: What happens next? | @TheAtlantic

For the latest on the fallout from the Brexit vote, FF our colleagues from @POLITICOEurope | @politico

What will happen now to the real-estate markets in the U.K.? | @WSJ

Thousands Of British Refugees Make Dangerous Journey Across The Irish | @WhispersNewsLTD

The pro-Brexit message resonated with those who feel left behind | @FT

With Brexit, the British people have … lost a lot of credibility, writes @djrothkopf | @ForeignPolicy

The small but real possibility that Brexit won’t ever happen | @Slate

What impact would Brexit have on the EU? | @wef

‘Clueless?’ UK citizens google ‘What’s EU?’ after Brexit | @RT_com

Will the Brexit vote prompt a second Scottish independence referendum? | @SkyNews

Scotland is likely to seek independence from the UK (again) after the Brexit vote | @CNN

Germany and France struggle to hold EU center as Brexit storm blows | @business

It feels like the beginning of the end”: Germans react to Brexit vote | @dw_business

Domino Effect: Brexit May Trigger Referendums in Italy and Netherlands | @V_of_Europe

Spain and Italy bear brunt of Brexit stress | @fastFT

After Brexit, could there be Grexit? | @AJEnglish

France fears Brexit consequences for EU defense capability | @ReutersWorld

Defence secretary says he has been reassured US-UK security ties ‘will endure’ post-Brexit | @itvnews

Brexit may throw billions of pounds worth of agriculture trade into question

Trade and tourism will suffer most in these 6 EU nations because of Brexit | @business

Sarah Palin Urges the US to Leave the United Nations | @MotherJones

The aftermath of Brexit “is a defining moment for American diplomacy,” @IvoHDaalder tells @JudyWoodruff PBSnews | @NewsHour

The liberal project is increasingly an American one,   @benwallacewells writes | @NewYorker

Brexit should be a lesson to the U.S. that angry voters sometimes get their way | @BrookingsInst

After Brexit, what? U.S. secessionists hankering for ‘Texit’ | @Reuters

Want to understand Brexit? Imagine Texas leaving the United States. | @voxdotcom

Brexit Shows Betting Markets Are Not a Silver Bullet for Predicting Elections | @reason

@realDonaldTrump and @SpeakerRyan reacted very differently to Brexit | @politico

What Brexit means for the U.S. presidential election | @TIME

Brexit is like waking up with @realDonaldTrump as president | @ComplexMagLife

Obama responds to Brexit: “…yesterday’s vote raises challenges posed by globalization.” | @Forbes

In Dublin speech, @VP Biden responds to BrexitVote & rise of Trump w/ words of caution on “reactionary politicians” | @CBSEveningNews

Hannity: The British ‘Showed Obama Their Middle Finger’ With Brexit | @DailyCaller

Sharing my take on Brexit vote live on @facebook now | @newtgingrich

British anti-immigration leader says Brexit is Obama’s fault | @thehill

People are figuring out ways to blame Obama for Brexit, because of course they are | @Slate

Brexit creates a lonely new American exceptionalism, @benwallacewells writes | @NewYorker

Why Brexit is likely to be one of the most consequential events for the world since the end of the Cold War | @HarvardBiz

Paul Krugman on Brexit: “Well, that was pretty awesome – and I mean that in the worst way” via @NYTOpinion | @nytimes

“To see Britain reject its neighbors in this way is profoundly depressing.” | @HarvardBiz

Brexit: the world’s most complex divorce is about to begin. Here’s how it might proceed | @FT

How to navigate Brexit volatility | @PIMCO

Here’s what economists and analysts are saying about the Brexit vote via @WSJEcon | @WSJ

How Brexit will affect the global economy: right now, in a little while, and long term | @nytimes

What are the business and financial ramifications of Brexit for the rest of the EU? @FTI_EMEA | @FTI_SC

Why British firms will not rush to judgment on Brexit | @TheEconomist

Banks around the world deploy their Brexit contingency plans. Should you worry? | @TheStreet

Here’s the Brexit memo Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein sent to staff | @businessinsider

@ABC News Special Report: Stock market tumbles in aftermath of Brexit

Japanese auto companies and a Hong Kong tycoon are among those hurt by “Brexit” vote | @WSJ

There is no reason why nations committed to entrepreneurship & free trade can’t prosper outside of the EU | @CatoInstitute

44% of the UK’s exports go to the EU. Now, we don’t know what that trade will look like via @business | @FiveThirtyEight

GOT IT WRONG: Pollsters, Pundits, Historians, Financiers… | @DRUDGE_REPORT

Brexit: One thing is more clear than ever — we must keep demanding that leaders everywhere ActOnClimate | @ClimateReality

How can we make Brexit work for the environment? – Craig Bennett | @guardianeco

Law firms are positioning themselves to make some cash after Brexit via @WSJLawBlog | @WSJ

Credit rating agency Moody’s cuts UK outlook from stable to negative after Brexit | @BBCBreaking

US high yield bond market adjusting to Brexit, with large gaps lower | @Forbes

The Brexit could have wide implications for the U.S. economy | @CNN

4 ways Brexit could hurt the U.S. economy | @CNNMoney

Here’s what Brexit means for American travelers | @TravelLeisure

These trades are the winners and losers from the Brexit vote shock | @business

Japanese companies are getting a surprise bargain out of Brexit | @business

@ABC Special Report: Stock market tumbles; Dow closes down over 600 points after Brexit.

8 things you need to know about Brexit | @CNNMoney

The giant hedge fund that got Brexit right via @WSJMarkets | @WSJ

Alan Greenspan on Brexit | @MarketWatch

Global stocks tumble after Brexit decision | @TIME

The 2nd richest man in the world lost $4.4B overnight due to market response to Brexit | @Forbes

An expert sums up the economic consensus about Brexit | @voxdotcom

Overwhelmed by Brexit? Here are the basics | @nytimes

Three reasons Americans should care about the Brexit | @latimes

What to watch for in the markets after the Brexit shock | @nytimes

Brexit sent stocks sliding around the globe. The S&P 500 closed at 2,037.35 | @markets

BrexitVote: The Dow closed with its largest drop since August 2015 | @Variety

BrexitVote could affect Americans’ 401(k) plans, mortgages, personal businesses, vacation plans | @ABC7

What UK startups make of the shock Brexit vote by @riptari | @TechCrunch

Here’s what Brexit means for the tech industry | @TIME

British tech firms eye relocation after Brexit vote | @guardian

Why British scientists are freaking out about Brexit | @Gizmodo

Brexit big blow to UK science | @guardian

Scientific community worries that Brexit will mean loss of funding, talent, business and collaboration. @sciam | @michikokakutani

Academics are uniting in bewilderment at Brexit | @Independent

Cornwall voted for Brexit, and now wants to keep its EU funding | @anneapplebaum

Brexit is ‘terrible news for TV and film’ | @Independent

They couldn’t keep you in the dark | @BreitbartNews

HBO says Brexit won’t impact production on ‘Game of Thrones’ | @TIME

Arts hit back at Brexit: ‘I feel nothing but rage’ | @guardian

What Brexit means for the fashion industry | @ELLEmagazine

The British passport has lost a lot of its value already | @Independent

Brexit forces British expats to become FRENCH because they’re so scared of being sent home | @DailyMailUK

The 10 best places to emigrate to after Brexit | @Independent

How immigration fueled Brexit | @TheNatlInterest

Pro-Brexit politicians are the dog that caught the car. Now immigration is their problem. | @voxdotcom

How will EU migrant workers be affected by Brexit? Via @AlannaPetroff | @CNNMoney

Scapegoating immigrants for economic suffering is easier than confronting austerity | @thenation

So who are the winners from Brexit? | @guardian

Brexit Created Many Losers, But Some Winners Too | @NPR

Brexit was sold as a victory for the working class. It isn’t. | @thinkprogress

How the pied pipers of Brexit cheated the poor and how they might be stopped – excellent by Matthew Parris | @JasonCowleyNS

Actually, the ones most out of touch were the ones who didn’t see Brexit coming | @IngrahamAngle

Brexit could cause UK charities to lose over $200 million every year | @HuffingtonPost

Celebs on Brexit: “We had a headache, so we shot our foot off. Now we can’t walk, and we still have the headache.” | @Salon

Media stocks tank in US after Brexit vote | @THR

Hozier calls Brexit a “massive betrayal”: “My heart breaks” | @billboard

On the eve of Brexit, Elton John welcomed luminaries into his home for a more hopeful affair | @VanityFair

How Brexit could impact the creative industry | @FastCoDesign

Brexit Meets Monty Python on the New Yorker’s next cover | @FastCompany

27 Brexit tweets guaranteed to make Brits laugh, cry, or probably both | @BuzzFeedUK

30 Brexit tweets: Collection of best memes, jokes, cartoons, gifs on Twitter | @htTweets

How cartoonists around the world are reacting to Brexit | @Independent

Explaining Brexit in the best possible way—with Simpsons memes | @TheAVClub

Martin Rowson on the Brexit vote – cartoon | @guardian

UK Vol.47 (EUref (analytical) articles/podcasts: “Bremain”?/“Brexit”? Vol.2)

Here is just a part of (analytical) articles/papers/videos/podcasts concerning the Brexit/Bremain on Twitter by think tanks, et al (the United Kingdom, Australia, Canada and the United States).




@IISS_org @harries_matthew








@CompassOffice (@NadineElEnany)

@RussellRElliott (@CompassOffice)



@ProgressOnline (@policynetwork)











@GreshamCollege (@NIESRorg)







@AU_SIS (@MichelleEgan14 @TheWilsonCenter)







@AEIdeas (@DaliborRohac @Newsweek)


@inthesetimesmag (@EconomicPolicy)

@TZHRJ (@EconomicPolicy)

@NormEisen (@HudsonInstitute)










@CFR_org (@JohnCampbellcfr)














UK Vol.46 (EUref (academic/analytical) articles/podcasts: “Bremain”? “Brexit”? – UK’s Referendum on EU Membership)

Here is just a part of (academic/analytical) articles/papers/videos/podcasts concerning the Brexit/Bremain on Twitter: universities (the United Kingdom, Ireland, New Zealand, Australia, Canada and the United States), think tanks (Continental Europe), et al.















Manchester @MBSnews







Leicester @UoLNewsCentre









London Business School @LBS


















(Aberystwyth @AberUni)



UCDDublin @UCDLawSchool



Melbourne @Government_UoM



Toronto @UofT_PolSci

(Toronto @munkschool)



Harvard @Kennedy_School





(Princeton @WilsonSchool)


Stanford @SIEPR




[Think tanks]























@CFMUK @voxeu @cepr_org







@annemcelvoy @ZannyMB @TheEconomist

Roderick Abbott @wef

@plegrain @ProSyn

Harold James @ProSyn

Simon Johnson @ProSyn

@plegrain @ProSyn @CEP_LSE

@guydej1 @ECIPE

Africa Vol.3 (Accelerating South Africa’s Economic Transformation)